NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Exactly like when Mofo burst onto the scene. Had all the makings of fantasy prospect but needed to grow into first grade. Problem with Leniu is JFH and Yeo taking all the minutes so he won't ever reach gun level while at the same club as those two but he could be a decent cow

Pookus McFly wrote:

I don’t like that his scores came at the back end of the season with the *insert any team toweling up terrible sides with no finals aspirations.

easytiger wrote:
1/ Milch, your list of the top 20 money makers, only has 16 people. I hope you're not a Maths teacher  

Mulvy wrote:If he gets close to a 55 avg though priced at 48 and plays the first bye, could be an excellent pick.

Pookus McFly wrote:

I don’t like that his scores came at the back end of the season with the Titans toweling up terrible sides with no finals aspirations.

The biggest problem with the small sample size isnt the lack of information but that it can easily skew data. Like with the game where he had an outlier tackle count of 34. Bare with me in the ultimate in cherry picking maneuverers (you will love this one Dolphin)- but if he only makes 19 tackles that game (the average for his other three games, and still 1 point higher than the average for halfbacks), with only a 4 game sample size his season average drops 5 points to 55. You can take off another 2 points because he wont average 3.8 goals.

I do think he is still a little undervalued, but certainly not the 10 point difference from his 2021 average to 2022 pricing. He would definitely want to retain the goal kicking too or he wont make his pricetag. If you were not running Cleary then he is actually probably not a bad pick, but its a lot of cash to sit next to $1.05M when there are plenty of cheap halves around.

Snatchpato wrote:
I agree with all this, but just going to add that from a sample of 12 QLD Cup games, Sexton averaged 22 tackles per game, which supports his higher tackle count for a half. Maybe he just enjoys tackling, maybe teams see him as a weakness in the line so run at him more, maybe he's got a shit-eating grin or punchable face, who knows. Fair chance he keeps up the higher work-rate in defense though.

my tv broke wrote:

generalised comment, but this happens every year, people get skewed ideas based on a set of games at the end of the season that don't mean a great deal.

players like kerrod holland start looking like great picks in round 1. etc.

obviously sexton is highly regarded as a player of the future. he might be an exception to the above. (i havent actually looked at his stats)

Milchcow wrote:Its why I am a bit cautious about Euan Aitken. His short stint at edge last year lead to a lot of tries. Pretty sure his score will regress. Just trying to work out by how much and if he is still worth it.

Mulvy wrote:What I do like about Sexton's four game sample is it shows he's capable of scoring across all categories. Turnovers, a 40/20, KD, FDO's, not to mention goal kicking, km's and attacking stats. Cleary-lite if you will. It saved his score when they got belted by the Rabbitohs, giving him a decent floor. Brimson not a noted kicker so might get a bump in km's too.

I'm keen but his price is awkward and the salary cap makes it hard to fit in. If he gets close to a 55 avg though priced at 48 and plays the first bye, could be an excellent pick.

Milchcow wrote:

Scott Drinkwater is another who looked tempting based on a small sample. Charlie Staines too although most figured that was unsustainable.

Sometimes the choice comes down to someone whose small sample suggests they might go well, or someone whose large sample suggests they won't. have to take a risk somewhere.

Its why I am a bit cautious about Euan Aitken. His short stint at edge last year lead to a lot of tries. Pretty sure his score will regress. Just trying to work out by how much and if he is still worth it.

my tv broke wrote:Its very easy to see a shuffle in the backrow come round 3 or 4 after the warriors are inevitably start the season poorly (sorry warriors fans)

mattnz wrote:

Warriors could easily start 4-1 and would be really disappointed if they weren't at least 3-2. They have the best draw of all clubs to start the season.
Dragons
Titans
Tigers
Broncos
Cowboys

mattnz wrote:

I just changed my perspective on Aitken. He is only really worthwhile if he gets a decent stint on the edge. NRL Physio saying he expects Tohu back in rounds 4-6 likely pushes him back to center, where he is 10 points over-priced. The only real value is if he stays as edge for the whole season and remains as keeper center without needing to be traded. In addition to Tohu there is lots of other competition for an edge spot, Curran, BMM, Katoa, Sironen, Murchie.

Milchcow wrote:

The list was actually the top 20 price changes, so I had to remove everyone that lost money before publishing.

Lot easier to make a lot of money than lose a lot of money (without checking I assume its because for mid rangers, price loss is capped by the minimum price)

Snatchpato wrote:Wow Bird is only at 8.7% ownership. Would expect that to rise big time.

easytiger wrote:

If he plays Lock as rumoured, there's maybe 10 points upside?
but it's certainly not without risk given the number of experienced forwards that can play lock and on the basis that the Dragons may adjust the line-up a bit if they don't have a great start.

Similarly with Aitken (who I currently have in my draft) - he's got some upside, but Nathan Brown has to be one of the most inconsistent coaches when it comes to selecting a line-up.
The odds of Aitken playing 6-7 games in a row on the edge seem low to my mind.