NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Interesting!

What role would Taaffe play at 14 and who would he fill in for? Would he take some of Ilias' minutes? I can't see him taking many off Cook. Maybe this is what Demetriou meant by easing Ilias in to the role. It might make both players less attractive?

On another note. At Souths, could we expect JAI ARROW to play decent minutes on the edge 60+? He is listed as a MID and if so, could be at least 10 points undervalued!!!!

I could see him taking the role of Su'A. Apparently that is where he has been at training. If he played closer to 80 he would be very hard to ignore in a difficult position

Ta’affe could just come on in a floating roving role I think. If Ilias is starting at 7 which I’m confident he will it’s worth the risk he’s 300k and cheap. I won’t be starting with Ta’affe.

I expect Jai to start at 12 then cone off for Host and then Arrow to play a second stint in the middle. I expect Arrow to play around 50mins. Keaon and Cook will play 80, Murray 60-65 so I don’t see Arrow getting massive mins unless we have injuries.

If Jaxson Paulo goes well in trials the left centre spot is his he would be DPP CTR/WFB 327k could be an option playing on our favoured attacking left edge side.

I do really like Penisini though.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Ta’affe could just come on in a floating roving role I think. If Ilias is starting at 7 which I’m confidedentt he will it’s worth the risk he’s 300k and cheap. I won’t be starting with Ta’affe.

I expect Jai to start at 12 then cone off for Host and then Arrow to play a second stint in the middle. I expect Arrow to play around 50mins. Keaon and Cook will play 80, Murray 60-65 so I don’t see Arrow getting massive mins unless we have injuries.

Even at 50+ minutes, Arrow is undervalued by about 10 points undervalued. Lets think it through.

Towards the end of last year he was playing already big minutes in the 2nd ROW.

Host is not a big minute player. Taaffe is taking one bench spot and you have Murray; Tatola; and Burgess as starting MIDS. The latter two are not generally big minute players. I can see both Koloamatangi and Arrow starting on the EDG and playing at least 60-70 minutes, with most of the bench focused on covering MID.

With Su'A gone, someone is bound to take his role and Arrow is the man most likely. I cant see it being HOST

I was quite keen on Curran until I read in 2021 he averaged -11 in negatives per game

On Taaffe I noticed when nrl.com posted Souths strongest team they had Taaffe at h/b which I was wasn't expecting so I put him in my team then removed him when I saw in rounds 2-4 they play the Storm, Roosters & Panthers.

I'm on the fence re Curran. Without Tohu in the team he's a real gun, but with Tohu in the team he doesn't perform nearly as well. Not sure I'm getting him for that price with a Tohu return unknown round.

I like CNK over Nofo

Word out of Roosters camp has Renouf Atoni the front runner to replace Isaac Liu role for Roosters. Price probably too awkward to take a punt on but could be a round 2-3 trade in if he falls into a 40-50 minute bench role

Lemmy KGB wrote:I like CNK over Nofo

I was really hot on CNK for a bit, but his long term average at fullback isn't anything to write home about. Since 2019 his averages over 70 minutes are:
2019: 42.2 (4.2 tbs/1.0 offload)
2020: 44.1 (3.6 tbs/0.5 offload)
2021: 39.4 (3.4 TBS/0.6 offload)

Total average last 3 seasons: 41.9 (3.7 TBS/0.7 offload)

Currently priced at 35.3 so that's 6.6 pts of upside. Losing a bit due to tbs, say down 3 pts, that's only 3.6 pts of upside. Don't see his role changing, also the Raiders are worse now than at least 2019/2020, so losing attacking stats?

Not sure I'm buying in anymore

I complained about the size of the ad and this is the response I got

Moanaman wrote:



Same applies to Haas and Dfifi

Correct, and I have none of them.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Interesting!

What role would Taaffe play at 14 and who would he fill in for? Would he take some of Ilias' minutes? I can't see him taking many off Cook. Maybe this is what Demetriou meant by easing Ilias in to the role. It might make both players less attractive?

On another note. At Souths, could we expect JAI ARROW to play decent minutes on the edge 60+? He is listed as a MID and if so, could be at least 10 points undervalued!!!!

I could see him taking the role of Su'A. Apparently that is where he has been at training. If he played closer to 80 he would be very hard to ignore in a difficult position

Yeah Taaffe's role is way up in the air - personally I reckon he could miss out altogether assuming a bench of Burgess, Sele, Host, then Havili could take that 4th spot at an extra middle. That's just my guessing though, Taaffe could easy play a floating role like Rabbits said.

Last year when Arrow played 2nd row, often Host would come on for a prop after 20 odd minutes and Arrow would move into the middle rotation and stay there. Either way I think he should be good for 60 odd minutes, priced at 44 he could easy get that extra 10 pt upside. I just think he's too good of a player to not have a significant role in that souths pack going forward

Hey Admins.

Unsure where to post this but a heads up. Using this site on chrome on iphone, I keep a tab up where I'm upto in the thread but today when I've been coming back to it, it is not loading, so I refresh and it takes me to my last post. Unsure if a bug or my settings.

Love your work

I really don't think Burton is going to do as well as people are projecting. His stats are insane, but he was in an insane team. Even in an improved dogs side I'm not sure he projects as well as people are hoping.

With that said, he's 35% owned and I'm not sure I wanna risk not getting him.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Even at 50+ minutes, Arrow is undervalued by about 10 points undervalued. Lets think it through.

Towards the end of last year he was playing already big minutes in the 2nd ROW.

Host is not a big minute player. Taaffe is taking one bench spot and you have Murray; Tatola; and Burgess as starting MIDS. The latter two are not generally big minute players. I can see both Koloamatangi and Arrow starting on the EDG and playing at least 60-70 minutes, with most of the bench focused on covering MID.

With Su'A gone, someone is bound to take his role and Arrow is the man most likely. I cant see it being HOST

Arrow has been very inconsistent at 2nd row averaged 39 at 2nd row last year and 45.7 playing over 60 minutes aand to be 10 points underpriced he would have to average 54 which I don’t see happening unless he has a big uptick in minutes on the edge or gets more time in the middle.

Snatchpato wrote:I really don't think Burton is going to do as well as people are projecting. His stats are insane, but he was in an insane team. Even in an improved dogs side I'm not sure he projects as well as people are hoping.

With that said, he's 35% owned and I'm not sure I wanna risk not getting him.

Yeah for me his main appeal is a) he's almost guaranteed to be a top 3 CTR at years end and is definitely undervalued, just not massively and b) around half the comp will start with him so in theory it's the safer choice in case he kills it.

Like you say though, his massive starting halves average is gonna get tanked by KM nerfs, unsustainable try scoring rate (7 in 9 if I'm not mistaken). On the other hand though, he's such a talented player that he makes his own opportunities. When Panthers got tanked by Origin in 2021 he got 55 (1 try) and 77 (2) in losing sides. It's not like the dogs are a black hole of talent either - they've got some very good attacking players behind a decent forward pack. Like just imagine him darting into open space off the back of a TPJ offload, points galore. Halfway through writing this comment I've realised I may have talked myself into him.

I think if you're content to pay big money early to get a keeper CTR that will average low to mid 50s then he's a good buy. You could also comfortably get him mid/late season and use the money elsewhere. I think he's a similar conundrum to Tino last year (who I avoided) except I think this time having a kicking halve's base stats means at very worst he won't regress from the 48 he's priced at. Just my take anyway.

Off topic but massive night in the tennis tonight too, cmon the Barty party and Special Ks

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Word out of Roosters camp has Renouf Atoni the front runner to replace Isaac Liu role for Roosters. Price probably too awkward to take a punt on but could be a round 2-3 trade in if he falls into a 40-50 minute bench role

Lots of big minute mids at Roosters. Hard to see the minutes for him. Collins (46 min average last season), Radley (65), SST (51), Watson (51 off bench), JWH (49), Butcher (47 off bench). Can't see him getting a 40-50 minute role with so many quality players to eat into minutes. That totals 309 minutes (out of a possible 240 minutes per game), before Atoni gets any minutes.

Crichton and Sitili also come into the middle often, even though named on the edge and take on a lot of the workload.

Alright, slightly off topic perhaps, but I've nowhere else to ask this. In 'House of Fun' by Madness, the chick in the chemist is being intentionally obtuse to messs with the kid, right?

FalconSloth wrote:
Arrow has been very inconsistent at 2nd row averaged 39 at 2nd row last year and 45.7 playing over 60 minutes aand to be 10 points underpriced he would have to average 54 which I don’t see happening unless he has a big uptick in minutes on the edge or gets more time in the middle.

As has been mentioned, he is likely to get an uptick in minutes and also spend some time in the middle during the game. If you take all his games 50 minutes and above last year he averaged just a tick under 54, which is precisely what makes him 10 points undervalued.