NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

Milchcow wrote:Best round 1 team on coach predictions (ignoring cap)

Cook 57
McInnes 68, Haas 59, De Belin 58
Curran 58, Jackson 58
Cleary (c) 152, DCE 64
Burton 52, Momirovski 48
Trbo 75, Tedesco 63, To'o 58

Fogarty 63, Munster 63, Grant 57, Hughes 57

1,110 points (forgetting you'd blow the cap and have 2 suspended players contributing to your score)

easytiger wrote:

They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO

Milchcow wrote:

Any prediction before team lists isn't worth the pixels you read it on.
There is also very little point in predicting a change of role now. Because in most cases it isn't a prediction but a guess.

I wonder if they will revise predictions before lockout. Given the price they charge for coach, it would be nice if the data you were given had some use to it.

If you care about predictions just wait for a day or 2 before the round starts and hit up the daily fantasy predictions for a better idea.

It's also slightly interesting to note that fantasy predicts 445 players to score above 0 in round 1. That is equivalent to each team fielding 27 players.

L-Jimmy wrote:



The coach predicted score looks to be essentially ye olde pareto weighted moving average forecast

Formula!
Last score       * 1
Last-but-one   * 0.8
Last-but-two   * 0.6
Last-but-three * 0.4
Last-but-four   * 0.2

Add all these together and divide by three and hey presto


Yeah, it's a dumb forecast. But Milch and ET are both right in that a) it's meaningless before TLT and b) depends on opponents, role, minutes etc.

The WMA forecast is a useful, very useful, proxy for autocorrelated series when there's lots of weird unknown factors. Autocorrelated just means that tomorrow is going to be quite like today, and the role a player gets (inc minutes, injuries etc) is probably going to be the like one they had last week. So WMA is a sensible, probably  good, predictor for mid-late season.

But don't pay for coach, just plug the 20% bands into excel yourself: =(J19*H19+J18*H18+J17*H17+J16*H16+J15*H15)/3

Milchcow wrote:

PM sent

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

In Cleary's last 6 games, from Round 24 onwards, he averaged less than 70 with a top score of 82. Obviously, a machine would not be picking too much more than 75 based on this. Camo saying he would be happy paying well over one million for a return or 75 is indicative of a Cleary confirmation bias. If I forked out that much dosh, I would be very disappointed in anything less than 80.  

L-Jimmy wrote:



The coach predicted score looks to be essentially ye olde pareto weighted moving average forecast

Formula!
Last score       * 1
Last-but-one   * 0.8
Last-but-two   * 0.6
Last-but-three * 0.4
Last-but-four   * 0.2

Add all these together and divide by three and hey presto


Yeah, it's a dumb forecast. But Milch and ET are both right in that a) it's meaningless before TLT and b) depends on opponents, role, minutes etc.

The WMA forecast is a useful, very useful, proxy for autocorrelated series when there's lots of weird unknown factors. Autocorrelated just means that tomorrow is going to be quite like today, and the role a player gets (inc minutes, injuries etc) is probably going to be the like one they had last week. So WMA is a sensible, probably  good, predictor for mid-late season.

But don't pay for coach, just plug the 20% bands into excel yourself: =(J19*H19+J18*H18+J17*H17+J16*H16+J15*H15)/3

robelgordo wrote:


Good pick up.

I haven't looked at it for a long, but seems pretty similar to how price changes are calculated?

This coach deal seems pretty scammy.

robelgordo wrote:


Good pick up.

I haven't looked at it for a long, but seems pretty similar to how price changes are calculated?

This coach deal seems pretty scammy.

Milchcow wrote:


Main benefit of coach is easy and convenient Breakevens. That would be a big selling point if it wasn't possible to calculate BEs without any coach data.
People like myself and mtb make our own BEs available for free, but even then its not as convenient as just seeing them right there on the fantasy site when planning trades.

Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

Coates
Jaxson Paulo
Periera 
Dunster

Chewie wrote:

If the coach deal came with an extra 2 trades I'd sign up straight away.

Maybe they should put me in charge of the marketing campaign.

Milchcow wrote:

If the game became pay to win, a bunch of people would walk away on principle.

A few years ago they offered 2 overall prizes. One for best overall score, and one for best score overall score amongst players with a coach subscription
That wasn't a bad idea, and is the best bet they have for getting serious people to sign up in numbers, as lots of people would back themselves as a chance at overall, however misguided their belief.

there is a chance?:

Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

Coates
Jaxson Paulo
Periera 
Dunster

my tv broke wrote:I used to happily pay for coach for the convenience... That was before fanhub fucked everything up to begin the 2018 season

mattnz wrote:


Jaxson Paulo
Periera 
Dunster
Coates

Rabbits21 wrote:Rank these 4 in terms of fantasy from best to worse cash cow....

Coates
Jaxson Paulo
Periera 
Dunster