NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

Jumping Marlin wrote:How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?  

I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with.  Help appreciated!

Thanks

i can export from my db to spreadsheet - basically any info you see on the site i can put into spreadsheet within reason

or there is milch's spreadsheet which is pretty comprehensive already

Jumping Marlin wrote:How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?  

I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with.  Help appreciated!

Thanks

PM sent

Milchcow wrote:

I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.

I would definitely find it interesting. 

I wonder how well the projections perform in past seasons? Guessing impossible to know. But the Fog!

robelgordo wrote:

I would definitely find it interesting. 

I wonder how well the projections perform in past seasons? Guessing impossible to know. But the Fog!

Here is fantasy coach best predicted value, for people priced at at least 20 points a game

Use these predictions at your own risk

Paul Turner	31.0	21.7	9.3
Taylan May	33.0	24.1	8.9
Jamal Fogarty	61.3	52.6	8.7
Ashley Taylor	37.0	30.4	6.6
Braydon Trindall	44.7	38.4	6.3
Lachlan Ilias	30.0	24.1	5.9
Simi Sasagi	30.0	24.1	5.9
Billy Smith	30.0	24.1	5.9
Peter Mamouzelos	38.0	32.1	5.9
Toby Sexton	54.0	48.2	5.8
Haze Dunster	29.7	23.9	5.7
Nick Meaney	39.7	34.1	5.6
Egan Butcher	38.0	32.6	5.4
Drew Hutchison	49.0	43.7	5.3
Moses Suli	36.7	31.8	4.9
Tom Starling	38.7	34.2	4.5

Any love for Wade Graham?

Trying not to be put off by past injury problems after not getting Turbo last year.

On paper seems to be decent value. Priced at 37, career average 46 in 60+ mins second row. Not like that really dropped off last year either, was 44.6 last year when he played.

Any chance he picks up a few more KMs too if Moylan/Hynes is the halves pair?

Risks are obvious but I'm considering it.

Conversely here are the fantasy coach worst picks

They really are pessimistic on some players. Everyone off Cleary
 

Name	Proj	Price	Value
Jackson Topine	33.0	44.2	-11.2
Clinton Gutherson	40.7	51.8	-11.1
Lindsay Collins	40.7	51.5	-10.8
Tohu Harris	50.5	61.3	-10.8
Wayde Egan	39.7	49.8	-10.1
Renouf Atoni	26.7	36.8	-10.1
David Fifita	54.7	64.2	-9.6
Maika Sivo	28.0	37.3	-9.3
Nathan Cleary	75.0	84.3	-9.3
Luke Keary	51.0	60.2	-9.2
Isaiah Papali'i	53.7	62.8	-9.1
Blayke Brailey	36.7	45.8	-9.1
Jayden Brailey	50.5	59.5	-9.0
Reed Mahoney	53.7	62.6	-9.0
Jacob Liddle	41.7	50.5	-8.8
Daniel Saifiti	39.7	48.5	-8.8
Jarrod Wallace	31.3	40.2	-8.8
Angus Crichton	52.0	60.8	-8.8
Adam Pompey	30.7	39.4	-8.7
Sitili Tupouniua	34.3	43.0	-8.6
Reece Walsh	44.0	52.6	-8.6
Albert Kelly	35.7	44.2	-8.5
Jackson Hastings	27.7	36.1	-8.5
Lachlan Croker	36.7	45.1	-8.4
Tevita Pangai Junior	45.3	53.6	-8.3
Jaeman Salmon	11.0	19.3	-8.3
Jake Turpin	39.7	47.9	-8.2
Brandon Smith	46.3	54.4	-8.1
Adam Elliott	40.0	48.0	-8.0
Daine Laurie	34.0	42.0	-8.0
Matt Ikuvalu	39.3	47.1	-7.7
Taniela Paseka	26.3	33.9	-7.6
Christian Welch	39.7	47.2	-7.6
Kotoni Staggs	40.7	48.2	-7.5
Ben Murdoch-Masila	25.3	32.8	-7.4
Kurt Capewell	33.7	41.0	-7.4

mrbrownstone wrote:Any love for Wade Graham?

Trying not to be put off by past injury problems after not getting Turbo last year.

On paper seems to be decent value. Priced at 37, career average 46 in 60+ mins second row. Not like that really dropped off last year either, was 44.6 last year when he played.

Any chance he picks up a few more KMs too if Moylan/Hynes is the halves pair?

Risks are obvious but I'm considering it.

Fitzgibbon mentioned Wade's kicking game when interviewed. Not touching him though. Fermor in that price range, Nanai and Bullemor cheaper.

The model hates a gun. I hope it learns a bit during the season as data comes available.

Milchcow wrote:Conversely here are the fantasy coach worst picks

They really are pessimistic on some players. Everyone off Cleary
 
 

Name	Proj	Price	Value
Jackson Topine	33.0	44.2	-11.2
Clinton Gutherson	40.7	51.8	-11.1
Lindsay Collins	40.7	51.5	-10.8
Tohu Harris	50.5	61.3	-10.8
Wayde Egan	39.7	49.8	-10.1
Renouf Atoni	26.7	36.8	-10.1
David Fifita	54.7	64.2	-9.6
Maika Sivo	28.0	37.3	-9.3
Nathan Cleary	75.0	84.3	-9.3
Luke Keary	51.0	60.2	-9.2
Isaiah Papali'i	53.7	62.8	-9.1
Blayke Brailey	36.7	45.8	-9.1
Jayden Brailey	50.5	59.5	-9.0
Reed Mahoney	53.7	62.6	-9.0
Jacob Liddle	41.7	50.5	-8.8
Daniel Saifiti	39.7	48.5	-8.8
Jarrod Wallace	31.3	40.2	-8.8
Angus Crichton	52.0	60.8	-8.8
Adam Pompey	30.7	39.4	-8.7
Sitili Tupouniua	34.3	43.0	-8.6
Reece Walsh	44.0	52.6	-8.6
Albert Kelly	35.7	44.2	-8.5
Jackson Hastings	27.7	36.1	-8.5
Lachlan Croker	36.7	45.1	-8.4
Tevita Pangai Junior	45.3	53.6	-8.3
Jaeman Salmon	11.0	19.3	-8.3
Jake Turpin	39.7	47.9	-8.2
Brandon Smith	46.3	54.4	-8.1
Adam Elliott	40.0	48.0	-8.0
Daine Laurie	34.0	42.0	-8.0
Matt Ikuvalu	39.3	47.1	-7.7
Taniela Paseka	26.3	33.9	-7.6
Christian Welch	39.7	47.2	-7.6
Kotoni Staggs	40.7	48.2	-7.5
Ben Murdoch-Masila	25.3	32.8	-7.4
Kurt Capewell	33.7	41.0	-7.4

I wonder how they calculate this stuff. Surely Gutherson is not going to lose 11 points on average

Chewie wrote:

I wonder how they calculate this stuff. Surely Gutherson is not going to lose 11 points on average

However they calculate it, it would be automated stuff with little to no human input.

Also note that this is just projections for the first 3 rounds, not the whole season.
So I guess that early on these people are playing against teams they have scored low against in recent fantasy seasons, which impacts their projected score.

it would be super basic. a mix of recent scores vs history against opponent

my tv broke wrote:it would be super basic. a mix of recent scores vs history against opponent

I just looked at Harris and Collins from Milch's table above for 'worst' predictions, and both of those players did their ACL's last season (and had super low score) against teams they have in their next three games (obvs Harris wont be there in rnd 1).

So its kind of meaningless unless you think the chance of re-doing an injury is increased if the opponent is the same as a past injury.

I would honestly not be too disappointed if Cleary still averaged 75

Camo123 wrote:I would honestly not be too disappointed if Cleary still averaged 75

In Cleary's last 6 games, from Round 24 onwards, he averaged less than 70 with a top score of 82. Obviously, a machine would not be picking too much more than 75 based on this. Camo saying he would be happy paying well over one million for a return or 75 is indicative of a Cleary confirmation bias. If I forked out that much dosh, I would be very disappointed in anything less than 80.

Milchcow wrote:

However they calculate it,  it would be automated stuff with little to no human input.

Also note that this is just projections for the first 3 rounds, not the whole season.
So I guess that early on these people are playing against teams they have scored low against in recent fantasy seasons, which impacts their projected score.

That makes sense if it's not based on season average. This would not help any Newbies trying to put a team together based on these predictions.
I'd be curious to see what their best projected team would be based on these assumptions

mattnz wrote:Interview with Fitzgibbon https://www.talkingleaguepod.com/

Nothing too enlightening, keeping his cards close to his chest.

Key points:
- Says Tracey was playing injured most of last season, returning from surgery. Really seems to rate him.
- Uncommittal on McInnes role to start the season
- Hynes has a big kick on him. Doesn't mention Trindall when listing others in the squad that can kick in general play.

Connor Tracey is an interesting proposition. He averaged 38 at CTR last year. He is priced at 33 and available as a DPP HLF/WFB.

Milchcow wrote:

You don't need coach. Just assume all based priced players will average 25 for the year

I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.

Sorry, I was being a bit sarky - not at you, but at coach

Honestly, the projections are terrible.
I've looked at them in previous seasons and their projections of value are generally just far too far from any likely reality.

They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO

robelgordo wrote:

Clearly their algorithm doesn't have any variables to project rookies. And it's based on them all starting.

We've all been sleeping on the Fog! And I fully expect Fifita to have a huge game in the All-Stars, and then never play more than 25 mins for the rest of the season.

Really want Tyran Wishart to be the next Immortal. His dad Roderick is my hero. And his mum just to run the life education classes with the giraffe (Harold?) in primary school. South coast royalty!

Healthy Harold! Loved when that caravan came to town.

easytiger wrote:

They're completely objective on raw data (which is good), but fail to take into account any context around scoring (injury etc), likelihood of changes to role or whether they may be selected etc - which pretty much renders them close to meaningless IMO

Any prediction before team lists isn't worth the pixels you read it on.
There is also very little point in predicting a change of role now. Because in most cases it isn't a prediction but a guess.

I wonder if they will revise predictions before lockout. Given the price they charge for coach, it would be nice if the data you were given had some use to it.

If you care about predictions just wait for a day or 2 before the round starts and hit up the daily fantasy predictions for a better idea.

It's also slightly interesting to note that fantasy predicts 445 players to score above 0 in round 1. That is equivalent to each team fielding 27 players.

Best round 1 team on coach predictions (ignoring cap)

Cook 57
McInnes 68, Haas 59, De Belin 58
Curran 58, Jackson 58
Cleary (c) 152, DCE 64
Burton 52, Momirovski 48
Trbo 75, Tedesco 63, To'o 58

Fogarty 63, Munster 63, Grant 57, Hughes 57

1,110 points (forgetting you'd blow the cap and have 2 suspended players contributing to your score)