NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

Lchy wrote:Warriors, Raiders, Sharks, Panthers, Cowboys all with updated photos on the fantasy website. Fuck the season is so close i can almost taste it

"Lone Scout"''s previews coming through on the NRL website now too, although there's been enough fantasy content from other sources over the last month that it barely makes a dent.

Interview with Fitzgibbon https://www.talkingleaguepod.com/

Nothing too enlightening, keeping his cards close to his chest.

Key points:
- Says Tracey was playing injured most of last season, returning from surgery. Really seems to rate him.
- Uncommittal on McInnes role to start the season
- Hynes has a big kick on him. Doesn't mention Trindall when listing others in the squad that can kick in general play.

Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory/hopium)?

I haven't looked at making a squad yet, trying to hold out until after TLT. I still don't know who some of the players being talked about are. Will be interesting to see if it avoids bias's for and against various players by not worrying about it until then. Tbh I don't think starting squad means too much unless you really overthink it and end up outsmarting yourself into silly decisions.

CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE

my tv broke wrote:Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory)?

Everyone is counting on Grant starting, Smith at 13. Before the return of NAS, there would have been no real option due to mids gone. Tui is also not likely to play in a hurry. I am expecting the NAS exemption to be an issue in early rounds of the season (4 months from the time he got covid).

mattnz wrote:
Everyone is counting on Grant starting, Smith at 13. Before the return of NAS, there would have been no real option due to mids gone. Tui is also not likely to play in a hurry. I am expecting the NAS exemption to be an issue in early rounds of the season (4 months from the time he got covid).

That is just assuming Bellamy would move away from a tactic that worked extremely well in 2021. Guess we'll see.

my tv broke wrote:

That is just assuming Bellamy would move away from a tactic that worked extremely well in 2021. Guess we'll see.

Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?

mattnz wrote:

Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?

sounds like a plan

my tv broke wrote:Why is Grant more appealing this season instead of last ? What will change at the Storm? is it just Finucane has left = more of Grant at "13" (in fantasy theory/hopium)?

I haven't looked at making a squad yet, trying to hold out until after TLT. I still don't know who some of the players being talked about are. Will be interesting to see if it avoids bias's for and against various players by not worrying about it until then. Tbh I don't think starting squad means too much unless you really overthink it and end up outsmarting yourself into silly decisions.

CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE

Yeah I'm trying the wait until TLT (or at least close) approach, looking back don't think there was much value in drafting early squads last season for me. Still ended up on Thursday arvo trying to choose between Host and Gos

Am keeping a running list of players - without looking how they'd fit in a squad - and I honestly like Cook more than Grant. But their seems to be a lot of potential cheap dummy halves, so could have neither.

One problem with Cook is that he will miss games over origin - you'd probably want to trade him out and in again (this applies to Grant too)

The other one s that he seems to have been given a boost in price compared to his average. When buying a 60+ scoring player, you don't necessarily need value. But you also don't want to be paying overs for it.

Milchcow wrote:
One problem with Cook is that he will miss games over origin - you'd probably want to trade him out and in again (this applies to Grant too)

The other one s that he seems to have been given a boost in price compared to his average. When buying a 60+ scoring player, you don't necessarily need value. But you also don't want to be paying overs for it.

How sure are we on the magic number?

My general observation is that most players appear to be "overpriced", when adjusted for the new scoring, which may just mean they are correctly priced, but the magic number is incorrect.

mattnz wrote:

How sure are we on the magic number?

My general observation is that most players appear to be "overpriced", when adjusted for the new scoring, which may just mean they are correctly priced, but the magic number is incorrect.

Easy enough to work out yourself. Just divide a players price by their round 1 break even.
You'll get a number around 12,400 - 12,500. Won't be exact due to rounding. Just work out a bunch of players and then average them

Use official values if you want to be sure. Footystatistics/my work can easily have mistakes in it.

On the topic of pricing/value

If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

Name	Projected	Price	Value
Andrew Fifita	32.7	19.3	13.4
Reece Hoffman	30.0	19.3	10.7
Paul Turner	31.0	21.7	9.3
Taylan May	33.0	24.1	8.9
Jamal Fogarty	61.3	52.6	8.7
Will Smith	27.0	19.3	7.7
Jayden Berrell	25.0	17.7	7.3
Alec Tuitavake	25.0	17.7	7.3
Tyran Wishart	25.0	17.7	7.3
Christian Ma'anaima	25.0	17.7	7.3
David Hollis	25.0	17.7	7.3
Trey Mooney	25.0	17.7	7.3
Sione Fainu	25.0	17.7	7.3
Jonah Pezet	25.0	17.7	7.3
Kurt Falls	25.0	17.7	7.3
Ezra Mam	25.0	17.7	7.3
Lachlan Miller	25.0	17.7	7.3
Joshua Cook	26.0	19.3	6.7
Delouise Hoeter	26.0	19.3	6.7
Ashley Taylor	37.0	30.4	6.6

Milchcow wrote:On the topic of pricing/value

If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

Name	Projected	Price	Value
Andrew Fifita	32.7	19.3	13.4
Reece Hoffman	30.0	19.3	10.7
Paul Turner	31.0	21.7	9.3
Taylan May	33.0	24.1	8.9
Jamal Fogarty	61.3	52.6	8.7
Will Smith	27.0	19.3	7.7
Jayden Berrell	25.0	17.7	7.3
Alec Tuitavake	25.0	17.7	7.3
Tyran Wishart	25.0	17.7	7.3
Christian Ma'anaima	25.0	17.7	7.3
David Hollis	25.0	17.7	7.3
Trey Mooney	25.0	17.7	7.3
Sione Fainu	25.0	17.7	7.3
Jonah Pezet	25.0	17.7	7.3
Kurt Falls	25.0	17.7	7.3
Ezra Mam	25.0	17.7	7.3
Lachlan Miller	25.0	17.7	7.3
Joshua Cook	26.0	19.3	6.7
Delouise Hoeter	26.0	19.3	6.7
Ashley Taylor	37.0	30.4	6.6

Clearly their algorithm doesn't have any variables to project rookies. And it's based on them all starting.

We've all been sleeping on the Fog! And I fully expect Fifita to have a huge game in the All-Stars, and then never play more than 25 mins for the rest of the season.

Really want Tyran Wishart to be the next Immortal. His dad Roderick is my hero. And his mum just to run the life education classes with the giraffe (Harold?) in primary school. South coast royalty!

Milchcow wrote:On the topic of pricing/value

If you pay for coach (or get the free trial) you can see projected scores for the first 3 weeks.
If you trust coach predictions (and why wouldn't you)

Here are the best players for the first 3 rounds

 

Name	Projected	Price	Value
Andrew Fifita	32.7	19.3	13.4
Reece Hoffman	30.0	19.3	10.7
Paul Turner	31.0	21.7	9.3
Taylan May	33.0	24.1	8.9
Jamal Fogarty	61.3	52.6	8.7
Will Smith	27.0	19.3	7.7
Jayden Berrell	25.0	17.7	7.3
Alec Tuitavake	25.0	17.7	7.3
Tyran Wishart	25.0	17.7	7.3
Christian Ma'anaima	25.0	17.7	7.3
David Hollis	25.0	17.7	7.3
Trey Mooney	25.0	17.7	7.3
Sione Fainu	25.0	17.7	7.3
Jonah Pezet	25.0	17.7	7.3
Kurt Falls	25.0	17.7	7.3
Ezra Mam	25.0	17.7	7.3
Lachlan Miller	25.0	17.7	7.3
Joshua Cook	26.0	19.3	6.7
Delouise Hoeter	26.0	19.3	6.7
Ashley Taylor	37.0	30.4	6.6

I guess I need to pay for coach, as I have none of those players

Lchy wrote:I haven't seen too much chat on this forum about starting the season with Grant weirdly enough, would've thought that might have been a bigger talking point.

I've been playing around with some drafts with him in it and I think it's doable. In games where he has played 50-70 mins he averages 57 so just about breaks even worse case scenario. Best case he plays 80 where he averages 62 which makes him 5pts underpriced, possible given Finucane leaving. I think he's a no brainer if he was playing week 1 so I may just bite the bullet.

I was considering it before Randall showed up...

my tv broke wrote:

CLEAR EYES FULL HEARTS CANT LOSE

Sounds like a Page 51 theme to me

Clear eyes...:

mattnz wrote:

Different topic, on footystatistics site, are you able to remove 0 minutes played from averages?

should be working now.

looks ok on https://footystatistics.com/index.php?p=505972

my tv broke wrote:

should be working now.

looks ok on https://footystatistics.com/index.php?p=505972

Working great thanks! First rate service.

easytiger wrote:

I guess I need to pay for coach,  as I have none of those players

You don't need coach. Just assume all based priced players will average 25 for the year

I might remove those guys from the stats and see what coach says about players people might actually pick.

How might someone go about getting fantasy data into a spreadsheet (eg player name, price, last year average etc)?

I know how to use a spreadsheet, but have no idea how to extract data from other sources to begin with. Help appreciated!

Thanks