NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Milchcow wrote:

King is certainly the front runner to be this year's Leniu

Or he could be last years Alvaro and turn out ok,

Bethany_B wrote:King has a very good motor, great PPM and he will likely start at lock. He won't get as many minutes as Finucane was, but only needs 35-40 mins to be value (priced at 26, 35-40 mins gets him to 35-40 points)

Leniu has a good motor, and was expected to get 35-40 minutes a game. Worked out well for 1 week.

I also expect Josh King to be great in round 1 this year

Milchcow wrote:

Leniu has a good motor, and was expected to get 35-40 minutes a game. Worked out well for 1 week.

I also expect Josh King to be great in round 1 this year

Yep, worst result would be 45 minutes off the bench and scores well in round 1. Some that aren't aware of the trap trade him in.

Named on the bench again round 2 and gets 20-25 minutes a week from then on.

Screw stressing about centres im picking Manu, Burton, Aitken with Cricton in the reverse. 

Looking forward to 3 of them going down in round 1

I can't find Zac Cini in fantasy...

mattnz wrote:Lemuelu is training at EDG. He says that Luki and Nanai have the 2 EDG spots currently in this interview https://www.nrl.com/news/2022/02/16/lemuelu-ready-to-call-second-row-home-long-term/

No mention of Gilbert.

This could be the Cows pack...

Hess
Robson
McLean
Luki
Nanai
Lolo

Granville
Cotter 
Gilbert 
Dunn

Likely Storm forwards minutes from round 2.
J Brom 48
Grant 80
Welch 55
Smith 60
KBrom 80
Kaufusi 80

Leaves 72 minutes for the bench:
NAS 45 (should see a slight increase from last season off interchange)
Eisenhuth 32 (last years average)
King 25 (last years average)
Lewis 33 (last years average)
Oversubscribed by 63 minutes for the bench
King unlikely to see more minutes than last year.

mattnz wrote:

Yep, worst result would be 45 minutes off the bench and scores well in round 1. Some that aren't aware of the trap trade him in.

Named on the bench again round 2 and gets 20-25 minutes a week from then on.

Why would he only get 20-25mins? NAS seems like an impact guy who will still just play around 40mins.

Khany wrote:Any reason to think chad won't rack up enormous Km's in NQ ?

He's garbage and will be out of the side by round 6?

mattnz wrote:Likely Storm forwards minutes from round 2.
J Brom 48
Grant 80
Welch 55
Smith 60
KBrom 80
Kaufusi 80

Leaves 72 minutes for the bench:
NAS 45 (should see a slight increase from last season off interchange)
Eisenhuth 32 (last years average)
King 25 (last years average)
Lewis 33 (last years average)
Oversubscribed by 63 minutes for the bench
King

That would leave 77mins for the bench not 72.

@Beth how many mins roughly did Storm bench get last year a week?

I think Grant could start off the bench some weeks too and not come on til around the 20mins mark.

I think Welch will get around the 52mins mark again too.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Why would he only get 20-25mins? NAS seems like an impact guy who will still just play around 40mins.

The only way he'd probably get more is when Melbourne are up 40-0.

standard-issue wrote:

Haha, it's been a rough few years for both of us!  Mind you, you had a cracker DT year the one before last didn't you, or is my memory getting even worse?  Travelling well over there I trust?

Yeah mate but that seems like an eternity now lol

All good over here, thinkgs opening up more and more, just come back from Benidorm on a stag so even travel loosening!

Kids rugby still on a tear, boys beat private rugby school by 70 points few weeks back and into UK league finals for their school side also

Rabbits21 wrote:
Why would he only get 20-25mins? NAS seems like an impact guy who will still just play around 40mins.

See my post above. If NAS gets 40, it leaves approx 30 minutes for the rest of the bench. The 2 guys that were mainstays on the bench all last season in Lewis and Eisenhuth each averaged 30+ minutes.

mattnz wrote:Likely Storm forwards minutes from round 2.
J Brom 48
Grant 80
Welch 55
Smith 60
KBrom 80
Kaufusi 80

Leaves 72 minutes for the bench:
NAS 45 (should see a slight increase from last season off interchange)
Eisenhuth 32 (last years average)
King 25 (last years average)
Lewis 33 (last years average)
Oversubscribed by 63 minutes for the bench
King unlikely to see more minutes than last year.

I don't share everyone's confidence that Bellamy is not going to play BSmith at hooker for significant chunks, particularly early in games. Of course, that would allow extra minutes for middles. But Storm have various other roleplayers eg Jordan Grant and Loreiro who might get on that bench in front of King.

Also, fairly sure Meaney will be 14, playing the bench back/extra floating support player role that Bellamy consistently uses.

Rabbits21 wrote:
That would leave 77mins for the bench not 72.

@Beth how many mins roughly did Storm bench get last year a week?

I think Grant could start off the bench some weeks too and not come on til around the 20mins mark.

I think Welch will get around the 52mins mark again too.

Last season with Grant coming off the bench makes it irrelevant to this season.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I don't share everyone's confidence that Bellamy is not going to play BSmith at hooker for significant chunks, particularly early in games. Of course, that would allow extra minutes for middles. But Storm have various other roleplayers eg Jordan Grant and Loreiro who might get on that bench in front of King.

Also, fairly sure Meaney will be 14, playing the bench back/extra floating support player role that Bellamy consistently uses.

Moeroa if looking for experience too. Still only 26, but has been playing in NRL since he was 18.

mattnz wrote:

See my post above. If NAS gets 40, it leaves approx 30 minutes for the rest of the bench. The 2 guys that were mainstays on the bench all last season in Lewis and Eisenhuth each averaged 30+ minutes.

Lewis and Eisenhuth are more edge players though aren’t they?

Anyway I’ll trust Beth take on Storm mins for their players.

mattnz wrote:Likely Storm forwards minutes from round 2.
J Brom 48
Grant 80
Welch 55
Smith 60
KBrom 80
Kaufusi 80

Leaves 72 minutes for the bench:
NAS 45 (should see a slight increase from last season off interchange)
Eisenhuth 32 (last years average)
King 25 (last years average)
Lewis 33 (last years average)
Oversubscribed by 63 minutes for the bench
King

Finucane was getting 55 mins a game last year and those have to go somewhere. Grant will not play 80, and I think they will stick with what worked last year (starting Cheese at 9 then moving him to lock at 20 mins when Grant comes on, then playing out the game with Grant at hooker).
King obviously won't get 55 mins a game, but I can see him getting at least 35, in a 20 minute stint at lock and then a 15-20 minute stint in the prop rotation later on.

Also, Meaney will play 17th man, with only one of Lewis/Huth on the bench alongside NAS and Grant.

8. JBrom - 48
9. Cheese - 60
10. Welch - 52
11. Kaufusi - 80
12. KBrom - 80
13. King - 35
14. Grant - 60
15. NAS - 45
16. Lewis/Huth - 20 (or 25 if one of the edges comes off early)
17. Meaney - 0 unless injuries happen.

320 mins across 4 spots available (hooker, 2 props and lock), 48+52+60+35+60+45+20 = 320

mattnz wrote:

Last season with Grant coming off the bench makes it irrelevant to this season.

Not necessarily he could still have that 60mins role. I do not think he’s gonna go from that to 80mins.

mattnz wrote:
Moeroa if looking for experience too. Still only 26, but has been playing in NRL since he was 18.

King will start at lock, plugging into Finucane's old spot, though he won't play as many minutes. It'll be the first 20 minutes for him at lock (until Grant comes on), and then a 15-20 minute stint later in the game in the prop rotation.

Grant won't play 80 unless he absolutely has to, he had injury issues last year and they won't want to work him into the ground