NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

robelgordo wrote:

Yeah no value in Sullivan, but he isn't named this week (like most of the likely R1 starters) and Amone is, which I think is a fair indicator that Sullivan is ahead for #6.

sullivan is injured, will see mins in charity shield

robelgordo wrote:

A few hours/pages late, but definitely agree with this. Could see him getting a good run at centre when one of them inevitably injures themselves.

wont see centre this year, squad depth way too good, ahead of him id have moga, feagais and bird over amone there again

Warriors assistant coach Justin Morgan on Talking League Pod has said Tohu is on track for R5-10

So it looks like NRL Physio early diagnosis of R3 might be too early

Also seems to be talking about DWZ as CTR option more than Aitken

I wouldn't be too concerned about Aitken being named at centre for the first few weeks

Mild concern is mid game injuries. Personally I am not too worried about this as it can happen to heaps of players. David Fifita had a stint at centre during a game last year

Bigger concern is what happens when Tohu comes back. If Aitken keeps his edge spot he's a top tier centre and you keep him all year. If he moves back to centre or bench, then he's not really worth the price you are paying for him.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
I’ve had Koula as my 21st player for a while, only because I can’t believe Turbo won’t soon slip in the shower again.

I have him as 21st man too and if he doesn’t play I’ll use him as a loop I reckon. I think he’s first on standby to come into that Manly back 5.

Milchcow wrote:
I wouldn't be too concerned about Aitken being named at centre for the first few weeks

Mild concern is mid game injuries. Personally I am not too worried about this as it can happen to heaps of players. David Fifita had a stint at centre during a game last year

Bigger concern is what happens when Tohu comes back. If Aitken keeps his edge spot he's a top tier centre and you keep him all year. If he moves back to centre or bench, then he's not really worth the price you are paying for him.

I think he will keep the starting spot.

Milchcow wrote:
I wouldn't be too concerned about Aitken being named at centre for the first few weeks

Mild concern is mid game injuries. Personally I am not too worried about this as it can happen to heaps of players. David Fifita had a stint at centre during a game last year

Bigger concern is what happens when Tohu comes back. If Aitken keeps his edge spot he's a top tier centre and you keep him all year. If he moves back to centre or bench, then he's not really worth the price you are paying for him.

I agree with Milch, it's unlikely Aitken is going to be a season keeper, it's also unlikely for him to make the $150k in price rises to justify a trade.
However, he will probably provide some xtra points for your team in the early rounds.

Chewie wrote:

I agree with Milch, it's unlikely Aitken is going to be a season keeper, it's also unlikely for him to make the $150k in price rises to justify a trade.
However, he will probably provide some xtra points for your team in the early rounds.

He’s one you start with at edge well I am looking at it then you can always move him down to centre later on and he can be a keeper there,

The Warriors edge with the potential to make the most money is Katoa. In that Justin Morgan interview he said he'd be playing with SJ. Even if we put him as having the same chance as Aitken of being out of the role when Tohu is back (and Morgan anyway referred to Tohu as a middle) he has an extra 100k+ to make over Aitken, plus will be on their go attacking edge.

Milchcow wrote:
If we are going to discuss group think on selections, its important to distinguish between popular players and group think buys.

People buying the best player in the game to be their captain isn't group think. Everyone can quite comfortably come to that decision independently.

Lots of people buying or avoiding Johnny Trapcow because a bunch of forum members are vocal about his (lack of) skills is group think.

Can't find John Trapcow, has he been added to fantasy?

Mulvy wrote:

Can't find John Trapcow, has he been added to fantasy?  

He is listed at JJ Trapcow at 220k but he can't catch for shit and he misses tackles for fun. I would avoid him

rhinoceroo wrote:The Warriors edge with the potential to make the most money is Katoa. In that Justin Morgan interview he said he'd be playing with SJ. Even if we put him as having the same chance as Aitken of being out of the role when Tohu is back (and Morgan anyway referred to Tohu as a middle) he has an extra 100k+ to make over Aitken, plus will be on their go attacking edge.

Maybe it is the year that Katoa kicks on. Has all the potential.

I thought he had typically played on the left. Unsure if right side suits him better ?

He is 10pts underpriced if he starts and plays 50mins+ based on his history there.. and achieving 44 avg isnt too outrageous

Camo123 wrote:Warriors assistant coach Justin Morgan on Talking League Pod has said Tohu is on track for R5-10

So it looks like NRL Physio early diagnosis of R3 might be too early

Also seems to be talking about DWZ as CTR option more than Aitken

A few days ago NRL Physio was saying R4-6 for Tohu.

my tv broke wrote:

Maybe it is the year that Katoa kicks on. Has all the potential.

I thought he had typically played on the left. Unsure if right side suits him better ?

He is 10pts underpriced if he starts and plays 50mins+ based on his history there.. and achieving 44 avg isnt too outrageous

He's been around a couple of years, so easy to forget he's only 22.

Morgan said he asked him which edge he wanted to play and he said "the one Shaun's on, please".

sgdragons10 wrote:

sullivan is injured, will see mins in charity shield

Ah didn’t realise! Thanks.

On other response, surely Amone is a better option than a few of those CTRs though. Moga! What is this, 2014?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I don' think wondering why they are not more popular has much to do with the narrative. I was responding to the question about who was missed because of groupthink. Mahoney is a prime example. I think people not going with a top-priced undervalued player like McInnes or Papalli over a top-priced overvalued person like Cleary is groupthink. I have solid reasoning for not picking up Cleary Round 1 but nobody will hear of it because they are thinking last year instead of this year.

Are you not picking Cleary mate?

mattnz wrote:
A few days ago NRL Physio was saying R4-6 for Tohu.

To be fair to NRL Physio, pretty sure he said at the earliest Tohu could be back R4-6, but ultimately it's the clubs call as to how quickly they bring him back and more time is usually better.

It may simply be that the Warriors are prepared to be patient with a scheduled return
A few days ago NRL Physio was saying R4-6 for Tohu.

easytiger wrote:

Yes he was saying if they bring him back then, they would need to ease him in, and wouldnt be playing 80 minutes.

Mulvy wrote:

Can't find John Trapcow, has he been added to fantasy?  

Don't worry, he is lurking in the shadows and goes by many names... you WILL find him sometime during the season when you least expect it.

We all will... so it is written.

easytiger wrote:
To be fair to NRL Physio, pretty sure he said at the earliest Tohu could be back R4-6, but ultimately it's the clubs call as to how quickly they bring him back and more time is usually better.

It may simply be that the Warriors are prepared to be patient with a scheduled return
A few days ago NRL Physio was saying R4-6 for Tohu.

I heard him on a podcast say round 3