NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Thank you all, exactly the advice I was requiring,

Gonna hurt to downgrade some of my faves but I need to to get minimum 17 players that will score well

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Thank you all, exactly the advice I was requiring,

Gonna hurt to downgrade some of my faves but I need to to get minimum 17 players that will score well

Milchcow wrote:

Small sample, but he is one of the few players to receive a discount for playing few games last year, so that is a plus.

Also, he will be playing with Brimson, not Taylor in the halves, so the assumption is he will get more kicking metres. Will be one of those least affected by the nerf compared to last years scores.

He did get a run in the team when the Titans were winning games though, and the one loss he played in saw him drop 20 points on his average. So you probably want to believe the Titans will do OK this year to have a bit of confidence in picking him.


In many ways picking Sexton is similar to the decision to pick Nicho Hynes or not.
Hynes averaged well last year playing fullback for the minor premiers. Now he'll be playing halfback for a mid table team. He may well maintain/beat last years average. But if he does it is going to be with different stats to what he got last year. Sharks scored 300 less points than Storm, so there is going to be less attacking stats on offer, even if he gets a greater share of them

Chewie wrote:

Both Hynes and Sexton not looking to shabby in the All Stars/Trial games.

Milchcow wrote:I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.

Milchcow wrote:

Problem is I think back to guys like Croft and Drinkwater who looked great in limited appearances and trial games but never kicked on when they got the full time job.
When Croft first got a regular starting gig, all signs pointed to him being a gun. His limited games as a starter were all great, and he killed it in the World Club Challenge that year.

I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.

Hynes smells most like a trap to me, but FOMO might lead to me starting with him anyway

Honey Badger wrote:

Croft and Drinkwater were never really dominant halves whereas Hynes and Sexton will be the dominate kickers in their teams.

Hynes is a definite lock for me. Sexton I wasn't as keen on but looks like he is just a natural fantasy scorer. Will see how he goes next to Brimson in the next trial

my tv broke wrote:

Only game I watched was the Broncos and I got irrationally annoyed.

Camo123 wrote:Fuimaono facing 5-7 week suspension according to 9 for tackle on Dunster

Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds

The Bludger#2 wrote:
Who's next up for Dragons?

Camo123 wrote:Fuimaono facing 5-7 week suspension according to 9 for tackle on Dunster

Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds

L-Jimmy wrote:

Could be, but lots of potentials could mean lots of chopping and changing. Lets see...bolded the ones likely to start

Bird, Alvaro, Ford, Molo, Woods, Kerr, Lawrie, jdB, Sims, Sua, Burns, Goosie.

So Bird becomes a better CTR shout perhaps? Ford at 439 might look alright - seems like he can play.

But Sims/Sua/JdB/Bird all seem like backrowers, so not real gains from Fui's absence there.

Props? Woods, Molo, Kerr, Lawrie - take your pick of the 400 somethings.


In general, can't see anyone averaging enough to make 150k guaranteed in 5 rounds.

Milchcow wrote:

Problem is I think back to guys like Croft and Drinkwater who looked great in limited appearances and trial games but never kicked on when they got the full time job.
When Croft first got a regular starting gig, all signs pointed to him being a gun. His limited games as a starter were all great, and he killed it in the World Club Challenge that year.

I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.

Hynes smells most like a trap to me, but FOMO might lead to me starting with him anyway

my tv broke wrote:

same, but both seem to be priced appropriately to me. The main upside for both is that they (likely) do all the kicking. I doubt either player will be leading their team into the top 4 (i'm making some generalised assumptions that the best scoring halves avging 55+ usually play for  top sides ie a lot of attacking points.. cleary.. dce.. hughes/munster.. moses.. etc)

Camo123 wrote:Dunster out for season after injuring ACL, MCL and PCL

https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/

Camo123 wrote:Dunster out for season after injuring ACL, MCL and PCL

https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/