NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

MF wrote:Lane looking outstanding.. but I must not be tricked again after being burnt last year

Same could be said for Gosiewski

Khany wrote:Fui tackle looked intentional to me

I didn't have the sound on, but I immediately thought that's a hip-drop.

Rankin passing the eye test 🧐

Camo123 wrote:

Same could be said for Gosiewski

I feel someone will be tricking me this year

Will have to wait till round 12 to get McGuire HLF/MID

I dont know about that mate, my cousin damo from tamworth whos a drone operater on the coast does 6am recon every morning, reckons hes been seeing euan swimming against rips.

Damo reckons hes about 3weeks away from sickmode, he hasnt seen anything like it for about 4decades.

Damo is 23.

Chewie wrote:

I agree with Milch, it's unlikely Aitken is going to be a season keeper, it's also unlikely for him to make the $150k in price rises to justify a trade.
However, he will probably provide some xtra points for your team in the early rounds.

mattnz wrote:Papy now listed as available rounds 2-3 due to an ankle injury. The question will be, do you start with him anyway.

I’m going to back myself to pick two midrange duds that I can easily trade out for Papy plus whatever cow emerges in R2-3.

I can’t bring myself to actually watch 1st week trials, but based on the scoreboard the Dragons are now comp favourites. Bailey Antrobus and Jonathan Rueben scored the last two tries and sound like a Springboks centre pairing but have adapted to RL exceptionally well.

robelgordo wrote:I can’t bring myself to actually watch 1st week trials, but based on the scoreboard the Dragons are now comp favourites. Bailey Antrobus and Jonathan Rueben scored the last two tries and sound like a Springboks centre pairing but have adapted to RL exceptionally well.

You didn't miss much.

Draft team so far

Hooker - b. Brailey
Mids - Haas, TPJ, J.Saifiti
Edge - fermour, bird
Half’s - sexton, ilias
Centres - burton Crichton
Wfb - Tommy turbo, Hynes, Xavier Coates

Subs - howarth, Lawton, Randall, Walters

Emergency - A fifita, then 220k players x3


Really high hopes for fermour, think he continues to improve and establishes himself as an 80 minute crusher for a good Titans team

Preference for Tommy T over cleary as couldn’t get both, hoping that picking additional halves in burton and Hynes offset the loss of points if cleary goes ballistic

Could be convinced to slide Crichton to wfb and select tago as last centre, also thinking about penisi for other centre

High hopes for sexton too, was impressive last year, though can see an argument for brooks or Sean Johnson, though I fancy Titans to run well and sexton to dominate if so

Emergency and interchange is weak, fingers crossed Lawton is selected and plays good minutes

Hopefully brailey gets the nod at sharks, if he gets rotated with mcinnes or has much less work to do then I’ll look to upgrade to one of the out and out guns, always enjoy having Brandon smith so will do the necessary

Appreciate any feed back, long time NRL fan but only my second year playing fantasy and was awful last year

Anyone organising the draft leagues anytime soon? Keen to do that again.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Draft team so far

Hooker - b. Brailey
Mids - Haas, TPJ, J.Saifiti
Edge - fermour, bird
Half’s - sexton, ilias
Centres - burton Crichton
Wfb - Tommy turbo, Hynes, Xavier Coates

Subs - howarth, Lawton, Randall, Walters

Emergency - A fifita, then 220k players x3


Really high hopes for fermour, think he continues to improve and establishes himself as an 80 minute crusher for a good Titans team

Preference for Tommy T over cleary as couldn’t get both, hoping that picking additional halves in burton and Hynes offset the loss of points if cleary goes ballistic

Could be convinced to slide Crichton to wfb and select tago  as last centre, also thinking about penisi for other centre

High hopes for sexton too, was impressive last year, though can see an argument for brooks or Sean Johnson, though I fancy Titans to run well and sexton to dominate if so

Emergency and interchange is weak, fingers crossed Lawton is selected and plays good minutes

Hopefully brailey gets the nod at sharks, if he gets rotated with mcinnes or has much less work to do then I’ll look to upgrade to one of the out and out guns, always enjoy having Brandon smith so will do the necessary

Appreciate any feed back, long time NRL fan but only my second year playing fantasy and was awful last year

Hey mate, Brailey burned me bad last year in draft, he just doesn't score very well, so potentially losing minutes to McMinutes doesn't bode well for him.

I'm concerned a lot are overrating Sexton due to a small sample, but some intelligent people on here like him so maybe he's not so bad. Tread carefully I suppose.

Turbo is a real gun, but he's likely topped out after an absolutely insane year. It's completely feasible he drops a shitload of money early on, so maybe starting with him isn't the best bet.

Howarth is by all accounts going to be a gun, but running him in your starting team, let alone your 14-17 is not a good idea.

Walters could have the 6 at Broncos before years end, but there's lots of competition there so be careful.

My advice is to look to downgrade a few players and get more depth and ensure you have at least one player to cover each position that's very likely to play and score decently.

Best of luck (and also take my advice with a grain of salt because I'm shit too )

robelgordo wrote:I can’t bring myself to actually watch 1st week trials, but based on the scoreboard the Dragons are now comp favourites. Bailey Antrobus and Jonathan Rueben scored the last two tries and sound like a Springboks centre pairing but have adapted to RL exceptionally well.

Only game I watched was the Broncos and I got irrationally annoyed.

my tv broke wrote:

Only game I watched was the Broncos and I got irrationally annoyed.

The stand out for me in that game was the young center Fifita who marked up against Staggs and did pretty well overall.

Snatchpato wrote:

I'm concerned a lot are overrating Sexton due to a small sample, but some intelligent people on here like him so maybe he's not so bad. Tread carefully I suppose.

Small sample, but he is one of the few players to receive a discount for playing few games last year, so that is a plus.

Also, he will be playing with Brimson, not Taylor in the halves, so the assumption is he will get more kicking metres. Will be one of those least affected by the nerf compared to last years scores.

He did get a run in the team when the Titans were winning games though, and the one loss he played in saw him drop 20 points on his average. So you probably want to believe the Titans will do OK this year to have a bit of confidence in picking him.


In many ways picking Sexton is similar to the decision to pick Nicho Hynes or not.
Hynes averaged well last year playing fullback for the minor premiers. Now he'll be playing halfback for a mid table team. He may well maintain/beat last years average. But if he does it is going to be with different stats to what he got last year. Sharks scored 300 less points than Storm, so there is going to be less attacking stats on offer, even if he gets a greater share of them

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Draft team so far

Hooker - b. Brailey
Mids - Haas, TPJ, J.Saifiti
Edge - fermour, bird
Half’s - sexton, ilias
Centres - burton Crichton
Wfb - Tommy turbo, Hynes, Xavier Coates

Subs - howarth, Lawton, Randall, Walters

Emergency - A fifita, then 220k players x3

Howarth and Walters are not likely to be good enough to be in your scoring 17 players. If they don't start for their clubs you don't start them for your fantasy team.

Like snatch said, I am not sure Brailey has a lot of upside as a fantasy pick

There also probably won't be three 220k players, going up to at least $240k will probably be required. And you already have 3 in your team so you are relying on 6 base price players being viable in order to have that starting 13. Its probably unlikely to happen.

Your team would probably be better balanced if you downgraded 1 or 2 starters in order to improve the bench

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Draft team so far

Hooker - b. Brailey
Mids - Haas, TPJ, J.Saifiti
Edge - fermour, bird
Half’s - sexton, ilias
Centres - burton Crichton
Wfb - Tommy turbo, Hynes, Xavier Coates

Subs - howarth, Lawton, Randall, Walters

Emergency - A fifita, then 220k players x3


Really high hopes for fermour, think he continues to improve and establishes himself as an 80 minute crusher for a good Titans team

Preference for Tommy T over cleary as couldn’t get both, hoping that picking additional halves in burton and Hynes offset the loss of points if cleary goes ballistic

Could be convinced to slide Crichton to wfb and select tago  as last centre, also thinking about penisi for other centre

High hopes for sexton too, was impressive last year, though can see an argument for brooks or Sean Johnson, though I fancy Titans to run well and sexton to dominate if so

Emergency and interchange is weak, fingers crossed Lawton is selected and plays good minutes

Hopefully brailey gets the nod at sharks, if he gets rotated with mcinnes or has much less work to do then I’ll look to upgrade to one of the out and out guns, always enjoy having Brandon smith so will do the necessary

Appreciate any feed back, long time NRL fan but only my second year playing fantasy and was awful last year

Most of the forum won't go along with bits like I highlighted above. There's a lot of hope there!

It's a very high-risk strategy, not least because those players may not dominate (or frankly start in their teams 17)!)

The modal top 500 team last year had a mix of cows and guns, a few underpriced midrangers, but also cover. Cover will likely be even more important this year.

I would go through each player and ask 'J.Safiti, what needs to change about the Knights and J himself to get another 10 points per match?' then I'd ask 'Is this probably going to happen?'

Good luck Ellis-son!

L-Jimmy wrote:



Most of the forum won't go along with bits like I highlighted above. There's a lot of hope there!
!

Better to be honest about your hopes for players, than to convince yourself that they will definitely improve and then get all sad and mopey when you find your confidence in yourself was misplaced.

L-Jimmy wrote:

:welcome:

Most of the forum won't go along with bits like I highlighted above. There's a lot of hope there!
!

Milchcow wrote:
Better to be honest about your hopes for players, than to convince yourself that they will definitely improve and then get all sad and mopey when you find your confidence in yourself was misplaced.

Oh absolutely.

And both options are better than spending hours trying to solidify your hopes by re-stating them over and over in ever more concrete, potentially misleading other forum members.

That's why I picked out J.Saf as the example. It wasn't flagged as a hope, because the hoped ones implied the analysis had been done.

Thank you all, exactly the advice I was requiring,

Gonna hurt to downgrade some of my faves but I need to to get minimum 17 players that will score well