NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I don' think wondering why they are not more popular has much to do with the narrative. I was responding to the question about who was missed because of groupthink. Mahoney is a prime example. I think people not going with a top-priced undervalued player like McInnes or Papalli over a top-priced overvalued person like Cleary is groupthink. I have solid reasoning for not picking up Cleary Round 1 but nobody will hear of it because they are thinking last year instead of this year.

I really don’t think the Cleary situation is groupthink. A lot of people want to start with him this year because:
A. They started with him last year and it went well, or
B. They didn’t start with him and it went shit, and they had to pull apart their team to get him in, or keep going shit, and in some cases rage quit fantasy and the forum.

This year may be different, and you may be 100% right, but people choosing to go with Cleary isn’t groupthink or just to continue the debate with you, it is more likely because it’s what makes most sense / least risk to them.

I think someone posted earlier starting without Cleary isn’t a death sentence, but it’s unlikely starting with him is either.

robelgordo wrote:

Poor Cini, gets 45 then -2. Nobody remembers the 45. Was playing out of position both games. Has some good reserve grades stats. I’d say he can still be a decent 1st grade player.

All I can remember is the criminal haircut. Unless your name in Papenhuyzen nobody with a rig like that is getting in my squad this year.

Not watching the trial but looked at the NRL.com stats. Did Stefano only play a short spell or was he uninvolved?

B/L wrote:If Meaney averages 50 Ill give you a BJ.

Praying for a 3 try performance off the bench, scoring 51 then retiring for personal reasons.

robelgordo wrote:

Poor Cini, gets 45 then -2. Nobody remembers the 45. Was playing out of position both games. Has some good reserve grades stats. I’d say he can still be a decent 1st grade player.

They remember the 45, it is what sucked them in to buy him, for -2, then dropped

rhinoceroo wrote:Not watching the trial but looked at the NRL.com stats. Did Stefano only play a short spell or was he uninvolved?

No first grader played more than 40 minutes. 2nd half was all ressies (which is also when most of the tries were scored)

Wasn't paying close enough attention to check what subs, if any, were made during the game other than the team swaps at half time

If we are going to discuss group think on selections, its important to distinguish between popular players and group think buys.

People buying the best player in the game to be their captain isn't group think. Everyone can quite comfortably come to that decision independently.

Lots of people buying or avoiding Johnny Trapcow because a bunch of forum members are vocal about his (lack of) skills is group think.

Are we confident Uto is the starting prop at 8 or 10?

Chewie wrote:Are we confident Uto is the starting prop at 8 or 10?

We'll know by lockout

Unless you are worried about things changing after a couple of rounds

rhinoceroo wrote:Not watching the trial but looked at the NRL.com stats. Did Stefano only play a short spell or was he uninvolved?

Yes he played 25mins and looked very sluggish was getting forced back a lot. I think he had 6 runs for 32 metres. He scored 12 fantasy points in 25mins. He could be last years Tino this year.

I know it’s only the first trial but he looked off the pace.

On another note Bullemor looked very good and so did this youngster Koula.

Rabbits21 wrote:On another note Bullemor looked very good and so did this youngster Koula.

I’ve had Koula as my 21st player for a while, only because I can’t believe Turbo won’t soon slip in the shower again.

robelgordo wrote:

A few hours/pages late, but definitely agree with this. Could see him getting a good run at centre when one of them inevitably injures themselves.

Thinkin Amone will start Round 1 at 5/8 and he's at a great price of $350k.

Who else starts in front of him at 5/8, don't think it will be Sullivan or Mbye, or am I forgetting someone ?

Honey Badger wrote:Is that Bullemor or is that Watmough?

Only got to see the first half and thought Bullemor looked out of position many times and overall looked ordinary no matter what the stats may have said given he hot a TA when the Wests Tigers backline were down a man at the time.

I like him on what he showed last year at the Broncos, and he a has a lot of potential, but I wouldn't be counting on him starting and doing well as a edgeplayer as I think he's more suited to the middle.

Krump wrote: Is it Pay-na or Pie-na for Filipaina?

Matty Johns, the great Darrell Eastlake and Ian Maurice (The Bear) on these videos below say 'Fili pa na', but on next occasion would say 'Fili pie na', so I hope this clears this up for ya as I was thinking the same.

Take your pick as the commentators during a game would change there pronunciation numerous times.

I'm sure some of the Kiwis on here could clear it up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_qaR_GOiAk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FM0Ly92FCs&ab_channel=CulturalPulse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys8s1BvXiuw&ab_channel=NRL-NationalRugbyLeague

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyvmlu_I07I&ab_channel=CulturalPulse

mattnz wrote:I think over the next couple of weeks we are going to discover more players that aren't vaxxed and more again at 4 months after they caught covid, providing a temporary exemption. So far we have only heard of a few high profile players, there are sure to be many more that aren't high profile.

Not aware of them having had covid and known to be unvaxxed without an exemption - Tapine and Api

Known to be unvaxxed with a 4 month exemption in place after having covid in the off season - NAS and Lolo

Any others that anyone is aware of?

Would be nice to know the exact dates when both of them received their exemptions.

So with Schuster having had surgery and recovery 6-8 weeks we're thinking that spot is Bullemor's for that period of time. Minimum of 4x starting games then maybe to bench should see some good price rises right? Think he'll jag a starting spot in the Goodnight Kiwis Round 1 side

The only team that can fairly complain about "group think" is the community team.

If you finish ranked below the community team, then maybe you should consider more of the common consensus.

If you finish ranked above the community team, then maybe you should try and extend more input into the community team selections

Otherwise we're all responsible for our own choices based on the weighting we assign to the various information we take in.

As for Mahoney and Papali'i last year; cute selections in hindsight, but hardly season defining.

Rooster Booster wrote:

Would be nice to know the exact dates when both of them received their exemptions.

From what I have read, the 4 month clock would start from when they got covid, not when they received exemptions.

“He’ll be close for Round 1, I’m not going to say he’s gunna be there, but he’ll be close”

Trent Robinson on Luke Keary, who is coming back from an ACL reconstruction + a foot stress fracture (new info) he developed during rehab. Good news is he got back to team training today.