NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Souths have a lad with the first name Tallis in jersey #14

Surely a Queenslander.

Should’ve named my boys Wishart, Rodwell, McIndoe and Schifilitti.

Having a lot of trouble splitting Naiqama, Pereira and Paulo for my third WFB spot. Any strong opinions are welcome. I also accept soft, wishy-washy conjecture.

Pookus McFly wrote:Having a lot of trouble splitting Naiqama, Pereira and Paulo for my third WFB spot. Any strong opinions are welcome. I also accept soft, wishy-washy conjecture.

Paulo has the highest average or all your money back

Pereira is a great choice if you're a boring loser

Naiqama? I hardly know her

Lchy wrote:

Paulo has the highest average or all your money back

Pereira is a great choice if you're a boring loser

Naiqama? I hardly know her

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah it'd open up the field a bit, with people having to decide what to do with him, we might actually see some different teams.

Everyone seems to be starting with Cleary but there are some ok arguments not to. It's not last year.

Averaged 81 (new scoring), priced at 84 after absolute career year where everything went right. Panthers not as dominant this year, with fewer tries, assists and goals. Further slight kick metre nerf with new six again rules. In 2020, Cleary had a sensational year and averaged (new scoring).... 63.

So, it's not like last year where not only was he the best player in the game, he was increasing heavily in price too. This year I'd spot him to still be best player in the game but without peaking where he did last year - a 70-75 average (still a huge improvement on 2020) with price settling around 900k, lower if he starts a bit underdone from injury. Somewhat easier to pick up in early/mid season, while the money you've saved has worked harder for you.

Will still be game's highest scorer so you've got to be confident you're compensating with scoring and cash generation through the rest of your team.

The counterpoint is the possibility of sitting with your head in your hands at half-time in Round 1, Game 1 saying "I've made a huge mistake".

rhinoceroo wrote:

Everyone seems to be starting with Cleary but there are some ok arguments not to. It's not last year.

Averaged 81 (new scoring), priced at 84  after absolute career year where everything went right. Panthers not as dominant this year, with fewer tries, assists and goals. Further slight kick metre nerf with new six again rules. In 2020, Cleary had a sensational year and averaged (new scoring).... 63.

So, it's not like last year where not only was he the best player in the game, he was increasing heavily in price too. This year I'd spot him to still be best player in the game but without peaking where he did last year - a 70-75 average (still a huge improvement on 2020) with price settling around 900k, lower if he starts a bit underdone from injury. Somewhat easier to pick up in early/mid season, while the money you've saved has worked harder for you.

Will still be game's highest scorer so you've got to be confident you're compensating with scoring and cash generation through the rest of your team.

The counterpoint is the possibility of sitting with your head in your hands at half-time in Round 1, Game 1 saying "I've made a huge mistake".

Great points. How much will he lose if he does score 70 v Manly for example?

Papadontbleach wrote:

100% this

How many mins you expecting him to get at start of season?

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Great points. How much will he lose if he does score 70 v Manly for example?

Not a massive amount... maybe 15k. But his BE for the next week would shoot into the 90s and so on.

I wouldn't expect him to lose money fast unless he got injured/HIAd (although a 50 game vs Manly would be pretty deflationary), but I certainly wouldn't expect him to *gain* value like last year.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Great points. How much will he lose if he does score 70 v Manly for example?

15k down to $1.035m per Fantasy Coach. 3RA of 70 puts him at $983k after the first 3 weeks (subject to some fluctuation obviously as it is assuming scores of 70, 70, 70).

I don't think there's much doubt Cleary will drop cash early, it's whether you can make up the points you'll miss out on in that time.

The cash saved from going DCE instead could certainly be handy (Manly have a pretty good draw rounds 3-6 too which could come into handy for Turboball). But say Turbo averages 65 over the first 6 weeks, Cleary averages 70 in the 5 games he plays after missing round 1, DCE now has 390 points vs Cleary's 350. At that point it's probably coming down to how much of an advantage you're getting from that extra 200k saved, because Cleary owners could grab DCE for just about starting price, 800-850k (66 BE) while DCE owners are running the gauntlet of Cleary not gunning it and hitting 80s early doors.

End of the day personally I am not ballsy enough to start without Cleary two years in a row (definitely clouds my judgement not starting with him last year). I also think there's enough value going around to make a strong team without that extra 200k Clearyless bonus, especially if we get lay-ups like Davey come TLT.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Not a massive amount... maybe 15k. But his BE for the next week would shoot into the 90s and so on.

I wouldn't expect him to lose money fast unless he got injured/HIAd (although a 50 game vs Manly would be pretty deflationary), but I certainly wouldn't expect him to *gain* value like last year.

Finally a balanced assessment of Cleary. I don't think it is madness at all to not play Cleary from Round 1, especially with confirmation that his return from injury is likely to be underdone. There is this though...

https://www.savetherhino.org/fundraising/breaking-news-scientists-find-rhinos-share-common-ancestry-with-unicorns/

I reckon Cleary comes back round 3

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Finally a balanced assessment of Cleary. I don't think it is madness at all to not play Cleary from Round 1 at all, especially with confirmation that his return from injury is likely to be underdone. There is this though...

https://www.savetherhino.org/fundraising/breaking-news-scientists-find-rhinos-share-common-ancestry-with-unicorns/

If it’s on the internet it must be true!

Rabbits21 wrote:I reckon Cleary comes back round 3

I’m wondering whether I should just bring Burton in at half (currently in my centres) and put my Cleary money into Turbo. If only we knew how long Cleary was actually out for!

Rabbits21 wrote:
How many mins you expecting him to get at start of season?

69.

wolfking wrote:

69.

Lol I’ll say 52. Call me a madman but I’m strongly considering going ride or die and start with Starling. Going cheap at hooker with another well priced guy to go with Randall gives my team better options in other positions.

Newcastle's coaching consultant Andrew Johns thoughts on their spine for 2022.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/newcastle-knights-team-2022-hooker-halfback-andrew-johns-phoenix-crossland-jayden-brailey-injury/7fe88f83-f92c-474c-99fd-afc922ce543a

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Chewie wrote:Great game last night, I wasn't going to start with Hynes, but after that game I'll try fit him in at WFB.

never tear us apart:

Apologies to Michael Hutchence - Thanks for today's challenge Chewy

Don't ask me
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Don't have to tell you
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It

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to moderate
Alt profile started
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You could live
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Oh shit! Well I just did
I told you
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'But if I say these things
How do you know, I don't lie?

It was boring
to moderate
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You (Don't ask me)
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What in tarnation?

Pookus McFly wrote:Having a lot of trouble splitting Naiqama, Pereira and Paulo for my third WFB spot. Any strong opinions are welcome. I also accept soft, wishy-washy conjecture.

Whoops fat thumbed this while laughing

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I am leaning towards Lawton personally. DPP HOK/EDG. I predict he will get a few 80 min games at HOK to start the season before reverting back to starting on the EDG as Schuster's replacement. A bit cheaper than Starling, better minutes than Cotter if he gets the gig as expected, maybe on par with Starling for potential?

I actually had Lawton come in to the bottle shop the other day. Had a good yarn, Croker's gonna be sweet for Round 1.

No Suaalii love? Still struggling to believe some of the CTR/WFB options being floated around this joint