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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:14 pm

    Jumping Marlin wrote:

    There is bold and then there is MattNZ bold!  
    I fell off my chair with your Meaney prediction (average 50+ off the bench).  That’s beyond bold!!!

    I see it in the same realm as predicting Turbo 80+ and Cleary 90+ last season, both massive outlier scoring from the many seasons they had already been one of the top scorers in their positions. Bellamy is the master at getting the most out of the person in that role, lets see what he can do with Meaney (he isn't in my team)
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:23 pm


    The only way Meaney will go even close to his priced average (let alone 50) is if someone goes down injured and he gets an extended run as a starter.

    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:31 pm

    Thinking Meaney is going average twice as much as Papenhuyzen did off the bench is less "bold prediction" and more "I think you need to go back on your meds"
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:32 pm

    Haha, yeah there is no way pap or hynes averaged anywhere near 50 from the bench....
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    Post by B/L Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:33 pm

    If Meaney averages 50 Ill give you a BJ.
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    Post by Moanaman Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:36 pm

    wolfking wrote:

    Here's what will happen;

    Round 1 - Hynes and Moylan halves pairing.  Everyone cheers and starts with Hynes.  Hynes 80 points, Moylan 20 points.

    Everyone celebrates.

    Round 2 - minute 34, Moylan goes down injured.  Trindall comes off the bench and immediately starts kicking the piss out if the ball.  Half time we are all blowing up biting our fingernails as Hynes scored 0 points in those last 6 minutes of the half.  End of the game, Hynes has a 10 point second half hand Trindall gets 2 drop outs and a TA to win the game.  Hynes finishes on 38 points.

    Next day, Moylan out 10-12 weeks.  FFFUUUCCCKKK!!!

    You read it here first.



    filthridden wrote:You do love a good conspiracy! Laughing
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:41 pm

    Probably won't be able to watch Storm vs Warriors tomorrow but Will Warbrick in the centres will be worth keeping an eye on. Would have thought he'd be playing on the wing given his strength in the air but maybe they want his size in the centres.

    Hope to see him in the 21 come round 1 awaiting his chance to debut because no doubt he'll go well when he does.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:47 pm

    for Meaney to average much over 20, we would need to see Papy get concussed again, that'd be the only way.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:51 pm

    filthridden wrote:Probably won't be able to watch Storm vs Warriors tomorrow but Will Warbrick in the centres will be worth keeping an eye on. Would have thought he'd be playing on the wing given his strength in the air but maybe they want his size in the centres.

    Hope to see him in the 21 come round 1 awaiting his chance to debut because no doubt he'll go well when he does.

    You’re not going to keep an eye on Meaney who is going to average 50 Laughing
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Fri Feb 18, 2022 3:58 pm

    Cmon lads, fair go here. I like making fun of Matt as much as the next person. More probably. It's like a cold beer after a hot afternoon's work.

    But he did say bold predictions! And it has started chat.

    And in sport, where Leicester won the comp, Bangladesh beat the world champion kiwis at home, and Charlie Staines didn't consistently score 5 tires a match despite massive forum confidence to the contrary....well, anything can happen.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:07 pm

    Reklaw wrote:

    Handy post, thanks Chewie. Good to be back and reading all the pre season buzz. Keen as for trials, talking shit and a bit of fantasy.

    I've cobbled together a first draft, agree with most of this list. Really need trials to play out. I keep finding Bird in the team over Aitken though (I blame my Dragon's bias). I like Lawton and Berry too, leaning towards a gun mid over TPJ as well.

    Also I keep seeing people jumping on Amone, I can't see how Sullivan doesnt get the first crack at five-eight with Amone on the bench. I rate him as a far better prospect, but 475k is a bit rich.  

    Yeah no value in Sullivan, but he isn't named this week (like most of the likely R1 starters) and Amone is, which I think is a fair indicator that Sullivan is ahead for #6.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:35 pm

    Frawley and Williams have covid
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:39 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Yeah no value in Sullivan, but he isn't named this week (like most of the likely R1 starters) and Amone is, which I think is a fair indicator that Sullivan is ahead for #6.

    Amone seems to be rated though. I bet he'll get a chance at some point, even if its not round 1.
    Papadontbleach
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    Post by Papadontbleach Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:41 pm

    mattnz wrote:Frawley and Williams have covid

    Charze is playing half, should be interesting but I'm most interested in seeing if Croker goes okay.  Possible minor cash cow if he kicks and is good again but probably unlikely.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:47 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    is it a big call to not have Haas?

    He is overpriced based on last years stats.
    Slightly underpriced based on 2020 stats, but he played a lot of 80 minute games then, and I don't think that is on the cards again.

    I suspect there is better value MIDs out there to start with than Haas.

    Uto has potential based on his back end of last year. I wouldn't think he is must have territory though.

    Haas now has a top elite HB feeding him the ball now too and I expect Brisbane to be more on front foot in some games which will be good for Haas attacking stats. If Cleary is out the first few rounds it’s likely I’ll captain Haas.
    poisoncup
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    Post by poisoncup Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:50 pm

    Papadontbleach wrote:

    Charze is playing half, should be interesting but I'm most interested in seeing if Croker goes okay.  Possible minor cash cow if he kicks and is good again but probably unlikely.
    My biggest lesson in my first year of Fantasy was to avoid the Croker trap at all costs.
    Goodnight Kiwi
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    Post by Goodnight Kiwi Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:54 pm

    A shout out for my friend's app "Tribe Sports App" a huge amount of sports and leagues and running text commentary. Looks like they're doing trials too so great updates for people unable to watch. Highly recomend it. One of my go to sports apps
    FaringdonSwirl
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Fri Feb 18, 2022 5:12 pm

    Goodnight Kiwi wrote:A shout out for my friend's app "Tribe Sports App" a huge amount of sports and leagues and running text commentary. Looks like they're doing trials too so great updates for people unable to watch. Highly recomend it. One of my go to sports apps

    One of my favorite app in general! Huge fan.
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    Post by Guest Fri Feb 18, 2022 5:22 pm

    Goodnight Kiwi wrote:A shout out for my friend's app "Tribe Sports App" a huge amount of sports and leagues and running text commentary. Looks like they're doing trials too so great updates for people unable to watch. Highly recomend it. One of my go to sports apps


    What an awesome app. Just downloaded it now
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Fri Feb 18, 2022 5:22 pm

    Savage looks great on attack but you'd struggle to give him the first grade #1 jersey based on his defence.

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