NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Chewie wrote:

Aitken and Mann are likely inclusions, but no Haas or Uto for me to start the season.

If Mann is named to start at 13 he'll probably be in my team just to provide that extra MID cover.
It's eitther going to be Dfifta vs Aitken(+250k itb), I'm leaning towards Dfifita for peace of mind and not having to watch Titans games from behind the couch.

Wow big call to have no Haas or Uto.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Wow big call to have no Haas or Uto.

is it a big call to not have Haas?

He is overpriced based on last years stats.
Slightly underpriced based on 2020 stats, but he played a lot of 80 minute games then, and I don't think that is on the cards again.

I suspect there is better value MIDs out there to start with than Haas.

Uto has potential based on his back end of last year. I wouldn't think he is must have territory though.

and there it is, poor ol rabbits hits 'reset team' once again.

Chewie wrote:My fantasy team draft as of today:

Certain starters (bar injuries): Cleary, TPJ, Papy, Burton, Hynes, Randall, SCrichton, Ilias

Would Love to fit into the team: DFifi, Mann

Potential starters: Clark, James, Nanai, Buldemort, Aitken, Penisini, Tago, Paulo, XCoates, Afifi, Amone, JCook, Luki

Hate to upset a Wookie, but if you put those players in, you bust the bank.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Wow big call to have no Haas or Uto.

I’m starting to reconsider uto tigers have a pretty stacked middle and if peachey is 13 not sure he gets the minutes needed

Speaking of Mann, what are expectations of him at starting lock?
I am assuming he won't regularly start at lock either - he'll swap to bench for kick off frequently but should still play more or less the same type of role.

He scored pretty well at hooker in 2020. That was mostly playing 80 minutes, but perhaps the work rate can be considered similar.

Connor Watson averaged ~46 in a similar role last year. Is Mann going to score better or worse than that?


Looks a bit similar to Jayden Brailey last year to me, in that I am not confident in him being outstanding value, but looks to have a floor above his price and potential to go big.
Just have to hope he replicates Brailey with a massive start to the season too.

Good to see someone going against the heard.

As good as this forum is, it is responsible for teams being very similar.

Mattnz is the exception but he probably goes to poddish and it shows with his overall rankings.

Picking a few high % players to not perform to their usual standard gets you off to a good start.

Personally I wont be picking Haas, hopefully from a Broncos fan perspective he wont be required to carry the team as much this season. Uto is one of my first picked however.

Any idea who the warriors hooker gonna be rnd 1 Egan or otukolo

manlybeaver wrote:Any idea who the warriors hooker gonna be rnd 1 Egan or otukolo

Egan

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Hate to upset a Wookie, but if you put those players in, you bust the bank.

Maybe you can learn to write with your toes or your teeth. Good luck with that

B/L wrote:Good to see someone going against the heard.

As good as this forum is, it is responsible for teams being very similar.

Mattnz is the exception but he probably goes to poddish and it shows with his overall rankings.

Picking a few high % players to not perform to their usual standard gets you off to a good start.

Personally I wont be picking Haas, hopefully from a Broncos fan perspective he wont be required to carry the team as much this season. Uto is one of my first picked however.

I think people overestimate the group think on the site

Amongst serious overall coaches, there would probably be less then 50 players being considered for selection. There may be a few people with random PODs just for the sake of it. But for the most part everyone is going to share a bunch of players with a bunch of other people.

I doubt our round 1 teams would be any more similar to each other than if you just picked a bunch of random teams from amongst rogues/renegades/discord/wherever

Milchcow wrote:

I think people overestimate the group think on the site

Amongst serious overall coaches, there would probably be less then 50 players being considered for selection. There may be a few people with random PODs just for the sake of it. But for the most part everyone is going to share a bunch of players with a bunch of other people.

I doubt our round 1 teams would be any more similar to each other than if you just picked a bunch of random teams from amongst rogues/renegades/discord/wherever

I agree with this post

Milchcow wrote:

I think people overestimate the group think on the site

Amongst serious overall coaches, there would probably be less then 50 players being considered for selection. There may be a few people with random PODs just for the sake of it. But for the most part everyone is going to share a bunch of players with a bunch of other people.

I doubt our round 1 teams would be any more similar to each other than if you just picked a bunch of random teams from amongst rogues/renegades/discord/wherever

Group think only really seems relevant when trying to identify early cash cows. Often, people won’t do their own research and rely on a well articulated argument suggesting a player could be a good cash cow, and takes the punt on them.

People only complain of group think, when cash cows turn out to be coin goats.

If someone complains about group thinks it’s often because they are a victim of it

If someone is complaining about group think, aren't they the idiot for not being able to think for themselves? its a game of fantasy football lol

Just spent a bit of time looking through last years community team for an idea of our group think.

We ignored iPap, and fell for the Cini trap, but otherwise got a lot of the major decisions right
Possibly a little too late jumping on Hynes, and we traded out Averillo the week he was injured despite having 2 fit centres without him (and I am not sure you could say that ditching Averillo was really a mistake without the benefit of hindsight in knowing how it turned out)

Other stuff was just bad luck - using our last trade to bring in Doueihi the week he got injured for example.

Chewie wrote:My fantasy team draft as of today:

Certain starters (bar injuries): Cleary, TPJ, Papy, Burton, Hynes, Randall, SCrichton, Ilias

Would Love to fit into the team: DFifi, Mann

Potential starters: Clark, James, Nanai, Buldemort, Aitken, Penisini, Tago, Paulo, XCoates, Afifi, Amone, JCook, Luki

Handy post, thanks Chewie. Good to be back and reading all the pre season buzz. Keen as for trials, talking shit and a bit of fantasy.

I've cobbled together a first draft, agree with most of this list. Really need trials to play out. I keep finding Bird in the team over Aitken though (I blame my Dragon's bias). I like Lawton and Berry too, leaning towards a gun mid over TPJ as well.

Also I keep seeing people jumping on Amone, I can't see how Sullivan doesnt get the first crack at five-eight with Amone on the bench. I rate him as a far better prospect, but 475k is a bit rich.

Fortitude wrote:

Group think only really seems relevant when trying to identify early cash cows. Often, people won’t do their own research and rely on a well articulated argument suggesting a player could be a good cash cow, and takes the punt on them.

People only complain of group think, when cash cows turn out to be coin goats.

If someone complains about group thinks it’s often because they are a victim of it

When people complain about group think and selecting the wrong player in their team because of it, it is always when they don't take responsibility for their own team selections.

Fortunately we get to hear a lot of varied thinking and balanced discussion, for everyone to then make their own informed decision on which of the 50 or so players that have been mentioned they want, to maximise their scoring, while ensuring team balance and minimizing risk.

I think it is pretty rare that things get overlooked here, but may have been popular in other groups.

Townsend vs Lam was typically a Lam selection here. In other groups, it was likely the other way around.
Many of us, including myself were burned by selecting Latrell the year before and werent willing to risk picking him again.
Turbo was always an injury risk, and even those that picked him weren't expecting him to average over 30 points more than any other season.
Equally, no-one that picked Cleary to start expected him to have by far the highest scoring season ever by any player.
Fifita was a no-brainer pick, but those that got him wouldnt have picked just how dominant he would be when on the field.

These are the kinds of things where there can be a dominant opinion which may differ between different discussion groups. I think we do a pretty good job discussing a balanced perspective, between the group. Its interesting to note that in many cases, the outcome in reality was significantly higher scoring than anyone would have dared to have predicted at the start of the season.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Hate to upset a Wookie, but if you put those players in, you bust the bank.

I named a few too many....I can fit most without breaking the bank

For those that want to break out of the group think and have their chance to say their crazy bold predictions they were really thinking of, like last season that Cleary would average 90+ and Turbo 80+, I have created our bold predictions thread https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1806-bold-predictions-for-2022-season#567424

mattnz wrote:For those that want to break out of the group think and have their chance to say their crazy bold predictions they were really thinking of, like last season that Cleary would average 90+ and Turbo 80+, I have created our bold predictions thread https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1806-bold-predictions-for-2022-season#567424

There is bold and then there is MattNZ bold!
I fell off my chair with your Meaney prediction (average 50+ off the bench). That’s beyond bold!!!