NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:


True. In regards to Cleary he had a breakout year in 2020 averaging 73 points. A whopping 73. Fuck a duck! His previous best was a 54 point average the year before in 2019. Surely 2021 could top to a 73 point average.

Difference with Cleary mate his first jump was an additional 15 points a game in KM. Easily sustainable as a base.

Last year on top of previous year, he doubled his per game try rate, and added some team attack points as the Panthers went on a tear.

Turbos increase has all come from a generational tryscoring run and additional TAs which is far more unsustainable, sure if he scores 29 tries in a season then he might come close to his current starting average and price but personally I don't think he will

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:Odd how we think that players that have amazing year can only go down rather than push on, yet players that have an off year are sure to go up.

Are our Fantasy minds set to think that a fallen gun is great value and as such "must go up" thus being a great pick. In return a player with a breakout season "must come down" to allow us to justify picking them up at a cheaper price, rather than paying in full.

Fantasy is a game about finding value on investment though, if Turbo was likely to average 85 again we'd probably all be cramming him into our teams. Outstanding player, but he's not winning the Dally M with 15 appearances again.

On your point about Cleary, someone on here last year (I think MS) put up in pre season analysing about how his stats from 2020 were more or less repeatable for 2021. If you take Cleary's base stats exclusively (KM, RM, T/MT + GK) he averaged around 53 last year (2021 scoring) and around 50 in 2020.

Lchy wrote:

Fantasy is a game about finding value on investment though, if Turbo was likely to average 85 again we'd probably all be cramming him into our teams. Outstanding player, but he's not winning the Dally M with 15 appearances again.

On your point about Cleary, someone on here last year (I think MS) put up in pre season analysing about how his stats from 2020 were more or less repeatable. If you take Cleary's base stats exclusively (KM, RM, T/MT + GK) he averaged around 53 last year (2021 scoring) and around 50 in 2020.

Bingo.

Not just about backing previous guns to return to a previous years scoring and I certainly am guilty of doing that because i've seen it before and get swayed by it.

But you are always trying to weed through the masses trying to find the value and maximise your cap

Welshy wrote:


Bingo.

Not just about backing previous guns to return to a previous years scoring and I certainly am guilty of doing that because i've seen it before and get swayed by it.

But you are always trying to weed through the masses trying to find the value and maximise your cap

Generally true, but if it's entirely a value game then you're not picking Cleary, who absolutely everything went right for last year and will (at least) be involved in fewer tries and kicking fewer goals  than he did last year if games are indeed tighter, as well as Penrith being less dominant generally and also fewer KMs with penalties instead of six agains.

I'm not saying don't pick him, because he still probably scores more than anyone else, but he'll probably be available for 900k before too long (as will Turbo) so if it's value and value alone you're looking for the only ubergun with upside is probably Difita because he has the possibility of playing 80. (Also Papenhuyzen, but current injury status blurs that a little.)

rhinoceroo wrote:

Generally true, but if it's entirely a value game then you're not picking Cleary, who absolutely everything went right for last year and will (at least) be involved in fewer tries and kicking fewer goals  than he did last year if games are indeed tighter, as well as Penrith being less dominant generally and also fewer KMs with penalties instead of six agains.

I'm not saying don't pick him, because he still probably scores more than anyone else, but he'll probably be available for 900k before too long (as will Turbo) so if it's value and value alone you're looking for the only ubergun with upside is probably Difita because he has the possibility of playing 80. (Also Papenhuyzen, but current injury status blurs that a little.)

Obviously not soley down to value, you still need your nailed on point getters and Cleary is the best option for most points

I’ll do my ladder predictor upcoming just popped into the thread for it and saw most of you had Souths down as 5th and 6th and tbh guys I think that’s really fair and that’s where I see us at too.

On another note I’m keen on K. Naiqama think he will score lots of tries on that left wing which is where I think he will play. He’s currently in my side priced at 29 I think he can avg 40 or so on that wing.

Rabbits21 wrote:On another note I’m keen on K. Naiqama think he will score lots of tries on that left wing which is where I think he will play. He’s currently in my side priced at 29 I think he can avg 40 or so on that wing.

dreamin

rhinoceroo wrote:

Generally true, but if it's entirely a value game then you're not picking Cleary, who absolutely everything went right for last year and will (at least) be involved in fewer tries and kicking fewer goals  than he did last year if games are indeed tighter, as well as Penrith being less dominant generally and also fewer KMs with penalties instead of six agains.

I'm not saying don't pick him, because he still probably scores more than anyone else, but he'll probably be available for 900k before too long (as will Turbo) so if it's value and value alone you're looking for the only ubergun with upside is probably Difita because he has the possibility of playing 80. (Also Papenhuyzen, but current injury status blurs that a little.)

I would say that the uber guns with the best potential to go larger are both flying under the radar with Papalli (10%) and McInnes (6%) ownership. I really do not think this is balls at all. They would only need to repeat their previous performance to go larger and there is very little risk if any of them go under their scoring from last year. That is my C and VC sewed up and I still have the capacity to afford other guns and people I am predicting to rise to gun status over the year.

The stat that screams Cleary regressing is that his base stats barely rose last year (thanks for sharing whoever did that) Add that to the likelihood that he is regression is likely to start from Round 2 or 3, then the decision is so easy.

The next idea is a bit more I am still not sure how to handle this Grant/Latrell/Papy scenario but I can see a scenario whereby being one of the only teams to own all 3 come Round 2 could be such a y move. I could take a risk on some of the base pricers with guaranteed game time for Round 1 and have all 3 in my 18-21 Then step out in style for Round 2, with the ultimate POD team firing having saved 3 trades. Of course, making sure that Brandon Smith plays at LOCK in Round 1 would be doing due diligence.

Any naysayers on this approach?

Alfie wrote:

dreamin

He will be on the Roosters left wing I’m pretty sure. You can put anyone there and they’ll fall over the try line. The Roosters have a soft first 10 rounds too.

At worst he avg around 37 and that’s still around 8 points upside. It’s a POD move but it could pay off.

Ikavalu had an avg of 47-48 I think on that wing.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I would say that the uber guns with the best potential to go larger are both flying under the radar with Papalli (10%) and McInnes (6%) ownership. I really do not think this is balls at all. They would only need to repeat their previous performance to go larger and there is very little risk if any of them go under their scoring from last year. That is my C and VC sewed up and I still have the capacity to afford other guns and people I am predicting to rise to gun status over the year.

The stat that screams Cleary regressing is that his base stats barely rose last year (thanks for sharing whoever did that) Add that to the likelihood that he is regression is likely to start from Round 2 or 3, then the decision is so easy.

The next idea is a bit more I am still not sure how to handle this Grant/Latrell/Papy scenario but I can see a scenario whereby being one of the only teams to own all 3 come Round 2 could be such a y move. I could take a risk on some of the base pricers with guaranteed game time for Round 1 and have all 3 in my 18-21 Then step out in style for Round 2, with the ultimate POD team firing having saved 3 trades. Of course, making sure that Brandon Smith plays at LOCK in Round 1 would be doing due diligence.

Any naysayers on this approach?

I'm startin to consider Papal'i over Haas actually. Averaged 71 playing over 60 mins when starting. Not sure about the approach tbh. A lot of cap being tucked away in your EMGs that could otherwise be points in your 17 could set you back 50-100+ points for Round 1. This could offset any gain you hope to attain by having those point of difference players down the track

Alfie wrote:

I'm startin to consider Papal'i over Haas. Averaged 71 playing over 60 mins when starting.

Does Ipap suffer more than Haas from TB nerf?

Welshy wrote:

Does Ipap suffer more than Haas from TB nerf?

On average, bout a 1-2 point difference. Looking at offloads though, theres close to a 2 point difference on average in Ipaps favour

Welshy wrote:

Does Ipap suffer more than Haas from TB nerf?

Marginal.. just 1.4 points a week. The big difference is IPaps capacity to increase his score. He won't start MID with RCG and Paulo in the team and he was getting lower minutes at the start of the year. That already makes up for the NERF

Rabbits21 wrote:
He will be on the Roosters left wing I’m pretty sure. You can put anyone there and they’ll fall over the try line. The Roosters have a soft first 10 rounds too.

At worst he avg around 37 and that’s still around 8 points upside. It’s a POD move but it could pay off.

Ikavalu had an avg of 47-48 I think on that wing.

Tupou's on the left, BMoz and Ikuvalu plied their trade on the right last year. Naiqama has a career average on the wing below 30. Granted thats playing for the Tigers but I think you're overestimating the effect of a better team. Naiqama scored plenty of tries at the tigs but he only topped 50 twice on the wing.

Alfie wrote:

On average, bout a 1-2 point difference. Looking at offloads though, theres close to a 2 point difference on average in Ipaps favour

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Marginal.. just 1.4 points a week. The big difference is IPaps capacity to increase his score. He won't start MID with RCG and Paulo in the team and he was getting lower minutes at the start of the year. That already makes up for the NERF

Cheers boys! If I don't run Cleary, (unlikely) I'm stacking mids with CMC, TPJ and IPap

Welshy wrote:



Cheers boys! If I don't run Cleary, (unlikely) I'm stacking mids with CMC, TPJ and IPap

Currently have Cleary, Paps, McInnes and one of Haas and IPap in my team. It can be done. Haven't sacrificed my bench either tbh

Alfie wrote:

Currently have Cleary, Paps, McInnes and one of Haas and IPap in my team. It can be done. Haven't sacrificed my bench either tbh

DCE in there so not a massive drop off and IPap, CMC, TPJ, Hynes (Pap if in for R1) Burton and bench currently of Katoa/Mann/Illias/Clune

Welshy wrote:

DCE in there so not a massive drop off and IPap, CMC, TPJ, Hynes (Pap if in for R1) Burton and bench currently of Katoa/Mann/Illias/Clune

Solid . You see Mann hittin 48 week in, week out?

Alfie wrote:

Solid  . You see Mann hittin 48 week in, week out?

45 will do me mate