NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

Welshy wrote:

45 will do me mate

yeah that's probably a good knock

Rabbits21 wrote:
He will be on the Roosters left wing I’m pretty sure. You can put anyone there and they’ll fall over the try line. The Roosters have a soft first 10 rounds too.

At worst he avg around 37 and that’s still around 8 points upside. It’s a POD move but it could pay off.

Ikavalu had an avg of 47-48 I think on that wing.

So you're saying Souths are 'soft' as Easts are playing them in Round 3 ?

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Is he though? Has either club made an announcement yet? If it has actually happened it is very strange. The big question is why does Manly want another 2RF or why would an up and coming 2RF want to go to a club with so much competition from a club with next to no competition.

Money ?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:Here is an interesting proposition? What if Will Smith has been selected to play the small LOCK role replacing Peachey from last year. Towards the end of the game TINO may spend some time in PROP. Lisone does not have a big motor and they are carrying two HOK, which means there are some minutes hanging around in that pack. Priced at 19. Could be an astute CASH COW, depending on how the game is managed in the next trial. I don't think he would have left Parra to have a just as minimal role with the Titans

Not sure how many offers he received so again I think it comes down to $.

my tv broke wrote:

I think he's more of an 'average 23.2 in 34.7 mins' kind of guy

@The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

That seems kind of precise for the eye test. All I know is that he is a solid defender and if he has been selected for that small LOCK role, it is usually comes with a larger number of minutes (pushing around 50). If he is named alongside two HOKs, I think there is enough there to take the risk of putting him in my 18-21 over risking it on a WING. Worst case is that he performs like a base price bench MID, best case he is a POD cash cow that I do not have to waste a trade on.


@ Rooster Booster wrote: I think MTB was having a joke in regards to the actual average and minutes.

I really like the look of Victor Radley,

Is there something glaringly obvious that I’m not considering


The article on “nrl fantasy game theory “ on amateur fantasy sports dot com was a great read that helped me draft my squad

(Can’t link it due to lack of posts)

Hey guys. Just a quick draft related question, are there any resources based around strategy?
Eg do you stack your HOK/HLF/EDG position and then just go for whatever’s available at MID/CTR/WFB?
Or do you go a gun in each position except maybe CTR?

Any help would be appreciated, flick me a PM if you want to keep it today out here

rhinoceroo wrote:

I'd go with Angus for combination of DPP, price, job security and ceiling but there may be some Roosters specs involved there.

However, my choice (if I run Cleary) more likely to be between Angus, Cook and Fifita and leaning towards Cook.

Take a look at Cook with/without Reynolds. I know there is a difference between losing your halfback mid season for a couple of games and having an entire preseason to prepare but the drop is so significant it turned me away

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:I really like the look of Victor Radley,

Is there something glaringly obvious that I’m not considering


The article on “nrl fantasy game theory “ on amateur fantasy sports dot com was a great read that helped me draft my squad

(Can’t link it due to lack of posts)

Radley is a dead set weapon of a player, any team would happily put him in at 13, however his fantasy scores suffer a lot from being a link man in the roosters attack. He doesn't run the ball as much as other 13s, and he is very prone to getting suspended.

Would stear clear in fantasy.

Based on structure it looks like my team will be decided by 4 big decisions

Gun MID - There is merit in choosing Haas, Ipap, McInnes or Crichton. Can probably only have one of them unless you go Cleary-less and picking the wrong one could leave you behind the 8 ball

Mid range edge - Tupouinua, Capewell, W.Graham, Gilbert, Fermor, Martin, Katoa all have upside and all potentially 0-10 points under priced. Most squad structures can probably squeeze 2 of these guys in

Above base cows - Under 420k you have Clark, Clune, Nanai, Amone, Ilias, JTB, Hetherington, Paix who could all make 150-200k if things go right for them

Cheap centres/WFB - Penisini, Tago, Crichton, Paulo, Coates, Dom Young, Suaali, Allan, Croker all have upside and capable of holding the centre position until you grab a gun

Right now I'm leaning to Crichton in MID, Martin and Fermor/Katoa at edge, 5 of the listed cows (flip a coin) and 5-6 of the CTR/WFBs. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out

Jaimin Jolliffe on talking league, talking points:

He talked up Sexton, praising his qualities which make him seems like he's played 100 games not 4. Praised his talking, willingness to put his body on the line etc. Downside was he mentioned that Brimson has a great kicking game, and they might share the load. Noting they'll have options on both sides of the park.

Talked about Erin Clark and how he fell out of love with the game in 2017, then has rekindled that love the last couple of years. Said he's looking forward to being an out and out 9 this year. Downside is he spoke about how Tanah Boyd has bulked up a bit because he's been told he'll be playing hooker, not half. So sounds like Tanah and Erin will split the minutes?

Praised Jayden Campbell saying he was the best player in QCup last year, and has put on about 5kg since last year. JC is apparently also quite vocal at the back so Titans defensive line should be good (last statement is my takeaway).

Beau Fermor is the best trainer at the club. Holds the record for the 1.2 time trial, lightning quick, pound for pound probably strongest at the club. Great, injury free preseason, Jolliffe reckons smokey for origin this year or next. Jolliffe has huge praise for him.

Fastest at club: Jayden Campbell
Fittest: Beau Fermor
Biggest Pest: Brian Kelly
Smartest: Aaron Booth
Strongest: Beau Fermor (pound for pound) and Mo Fotuaika (220kg squat)/Greg Marzhew (190kg bench)

Updated team tracker

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:


True. In regards to Cleary he had a breakout year in 2020 averaging 73 points. A whopping 73. Fuck a duck! His previous best was a 54 point average the year before in 2019. Surely 2021 could top to a 73 point average.

Cleary's fantasy explosion was a year on year increase in base. This was much more sustainable than Turbo having the best attacking season of all time

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I would say that the uber guns with the best potential to go larger are both flying under the radar with Papalli (10%) and McInnes (6%) ownership.

First thing is that if you put ownership percentage after a player in trying to justify them, I automatically pay slightly less attention to

I know a lot of people enjoy having PODs, but I prefer picking the good players. Ownership percentage should have no bearing on evaluating a players worth.

They would only need to repeat their previous performance to go larger and there is very little risk if any of them go under their scoring from last year. That is my C and VC sewed up and I still have the capacity to afford other guns and people I am predicting to rise to gun status over the year.

The stat that screams Cleary regressing is that his base stats barely rose last year (thanks for sharing whoever did that) Add that to the likelihood that he is regression is likely to start from Round 2 or 3, then the decision is so easy.

Your claim is that McInnnes can easily repeat his record high scoring from 2020.
You also claim that there is little chance Cleary can repeat his record high scoring from 2021
What is the difference between the 2?

In my mind McInnes has more risk given he has m oved to a new club. One that has better middles and less of a need for him to do all the work.
I still might start with him, the discount he got for missing 2021 was relatively small, but nonetheless exists, so he can drop his average and still be value.

Finger Puppet Mafia wrote:Odd how we think that players that have amazing year can only go down rather than push on, yet players that have an off year are sure to go up.

Are our Fantasy minds set to think that a fallen gun is great value and as such "must go up" thus being a great pick. In return a player with a breakout season "must come down" to allow us to justify picking them up at a cheaper price, rather than paying in full.

I think in the case of Turbo, his season last year wasn't just amazing, it was historic. That may well be the most dominating stretch of attacking footy ever. So it's particularly hard to envision that getting maintained or better.

If that's going to be the norm for him, or if he can get even better, then we're going to be looking at one of the truly best people to ever play the game, because he was that good.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:I really like the look of Victor Radley,

Is there something glaringly obvious that I’m not considering


The article on “nrl fantasy game theory “ on amateur fantasy sports dot com was a great read that helped me draft my squad

(Can’t link it due to lack of posts)

Here is the link - https://amateursfantasysports.com/2022/01/28/game-theory/

One of the problems with this, is that there is no player owned by more than 50% of players.
Now obviously if you reduce that to "serious" teams only some players will be a lot more popular.

But basically for whichever player you are talking about, there are more people in the "don't own" column than the "own column"

This type of ownership talk and game theory is much more relevant to Daily Fantasy which is a one and done, and nobody has time to adjust their picks if they get them wrong. And there is more variablility in week to week scores, so even "guaranteed" guns can have an off week.
In overall, anyone who truly goes over/under expectations will be bought/sold accordingly within a few weeks, so you are looking at maybe 50 points/$50k advantage on a bunch of the field. Nice, but it isn't going to be the major factor on how you finish.

Much better off just getting the players right rather than worrying about how many people might be right/wrong along with you.

Regulator wrote:

I think in the case of Turbo, his season last year wasn't just amazing, it was historic. That may well be the most dominating stretch of attacking footy ever. So it's particularly hard to envision that getting maintained or better.

If that's going to be the norm for him, or if he can get even better, then we're going to be looking at one of the truly best people to ever play the game, because he was that good.

Trbo basically took Hayne's stretches of form and said "hold my beer"

He might go on a run like that in the short term again, but doubt he can do a whole season

I like the iPap idea, but if Fifita is starting and probably playing 80 most weeks based on reports on his fitness, he is only $18k more.

Was significantly impacted by injury late in the season, and playing off the bench, and already has the TB nerf discounted from his price and averages over 2 offloads per game.

If there was 1 player that could be undervalued and go on a Cleary / Turbo style run this season, it would be a fit, uninjured Fifita. Those 2 factors were the only things stopping him from being at that level. If he starts playing 80 with full effort through each game of the season, he will elevate to uber-gun.

Just updated Team Tracker.
Damn it's a bit of a crap-shoot to maintain solid team depth/cover and find the cap space for Cleary & D. Fifita.
Let me know what you think.
The other obvious option is to sideline Fifita on the Edge and pick I. Pap to run a gun in the middle.
Then Luki starts and Tago is back into the scoring 17.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Hey guys. Just a quick draft related question, are there any resources based around strategy?
Eg do you stack your HOK/HLF/EDG position and then just go for whatever’s available at MID/CTR/WFB?
Or do you go a gun in each position except maybe CTR?

Any help would be appreciated, flick me a PM if you want to keep it today out here

My strategy has been to make sure you have plenty of cover.
DPP’s are extra useful in draft.
Obviously you need to start with getting the best possible captain you can, depending on where you fit in the selection process.
You only have 1 hooker so that also needs to be a priority, and you need to have a backup in case he gets rested, injured, suspended, plays origin, etc.
It also helps to be aware who might be looking at getting DPP if TLT is kind. Someone like Kurt Mann for example.
I think my most recent draft team has 10 DPP’s in it.