NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 5 - RIP Shane Warne

rhinoceroo wrote:Join this league if you want to, Sunday crowd: EPXNMVEJ

Done

Bump for the tipping comp
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1823-nrlff-2022-tipping-comp#570009

rhinoceroo wrote:Doubt any Warrior winger has great job security. DWZ the closest (although noises that he's also been training at centre) but there are a couple of highly-rated kids in their system too to get in a lather over in mid-season when Montoya doesn't cut it.

In TK's interview with Justin Morgan (Warriors assistant coach) they mentioned that DWZ is seen as a winger and they wanted to get him some practice time with his centre partner

No idea why he got named at centre for the trial (not sure if interview took place before or after they named that team)

The NRL have poured cold water on reports linking former Broncos star Anthony Milford to a move to the Newcastle Knights in time to play next month.

Raiders English import Ryan Sutton is reportedly set for a move to the Bulldogs in another huge coup for the Canterbury club.

The 26-year-old is reportedly close to signing a three-year contract according to The Daily Telegraph, adding to their new recruits for the 2023 season.

RE comments on Tedesco and Warne. I honestly don't care either way.

I really hate this forum when you guys get political. Take it somewhere else.

I'm considering deviating from my strict guns/cheapies strategy to get Uto and Aitken in, using the following reasoning.

Angus is priced at about his average (61), while Utoikamanu averaged 55 after moving to starting prop last year, with a clear distinction between starting scores and bench scores. If we see Uto with a starting spot on TLT as expected, then he is clearly value and potentially a genuine gun, at worst a serviceable keeper.

Meanwhile, my current 2nd EDG, Nanai, has a very low PPM and best case scenario averages about 40, while if I downgraded Angus to Uto (giving up 5-10 points for 200k), I can upgrade Nanai to Aitken who would likely average low to mid 50s (so a 10-15 point gain).

The important question for all of my analysis is this: How safe do we think Aitken is on that edge? The Warriors do have a lot of edge forwards, but if Aitken can have a big game or two before Harris is back, he could shoot up to 700k and then be sold off for a gun that's leaked a bit of cash.

Bethany_B wrote:I'm considering deviating from my strict guns/cheapies strategy to get Uto and Aitken in, using the following reasoning.

Angus is priced at about his average (61), while Utoikamanu averaged 55 after moving to starting prop last year, with a clear distinction between starting scores and bench scores. If we see Uto with a starting spot on TLT as expected, then he is clearly value and potentially a genuine gun, at worst a serviceable keeper.

Meanwhile, my current 2nd EDG, Nanai, has a very low PPM and best case scenario averages about 40, while if I downgraded Angus to Uto (giving up 5-10 points for 200k), I can upgrade Nanai to Aitken who would likely average low to mid 50s (so a 10-15 point gain).

The important question for all of my analysis is this: How safe do we think Aitken is on that edge? The Warriors do have a lot of edge forwards, but if Aitken can have a big game or two before Harris is back, he could shoot up to 700k and then be sold off for a gun that's leaked a bit of cash.

My view on Aitken is that if he is named at edge on Tuesday, then he's probably got a bit of safety there.

He may get moved when Tohu comes back, and thus may not be a season keeper, but I'd like his medium term security

Bethany_B wrote:I'm considering deviating from my strict guns/cheapies strategy to get Uto and Aitken in, using the following reasoning.

Angus is priced at about his average (61), while Utoikamanu averaged 55 after moving to starting prop last year, with a clear distinction between starting scores and bench scores. If we see Uto with a starting spot on TLT as expected, then he is clearly value and potentially a genuine gun, at worst a serviceable keeper.

Meanwhile, my current 2nd EDG, Nanai, has a very low PPM and best case scenario averages about 40, while if I downgraded Angus to Uto (giving up 5-10 points for 200k), I can upgrade Nanai to Aitken who would likely average low to mid 50s (so a 10-15 point gain).

The important question for all of my analysis is this: How safe do we think Aitken is on that edge? The Warriors do have a lot of edge forwards, but if Aitken can have a big game or two before Harris is back, he could shoot up to 700k and then be sold off for a gun that's leaked a bit of cash.

See my post on the previous page. Aitken has very low job security on the EDG for multiple reasons.

White Lightning wrote:I know there have been positive vibes re Tuamalolo's starting at lock & getting big mins statement & I have to admit it grabbed my attention with all those thoughts of a bounce back year & the rise of a fallen gun coupled with his juicy price but then I thought can I really trust Payten who likes to chop & change on what seemed a weekly basis in 2021 & will he vdo the same in 2022.

Just remember that Taumalolo started at lock and got big minutes last year. So what change are you expecting?

The hope would be that all the injuries he got last year hampered is scoring and he is now over them. He got a lot of scores in the 30s last year. If you are paying for him you don't want to see those again

mattnz wrote:

See my post on the previous page. Aitken has very low job security on the EDG for multiple reasons.

Valid concern, though how long do you think he stays on the edge?

if I do pick him, it's not as a keeper CTR, but a punt on him getting some attacking stats in the first few rounds and then selling him off at round 5-7.

Bethany_B wrote:

Valid concern, though how long do you think he stays on the edge?

if I do pick him, it's not as a keeper CTR, but a punt on him getting some attacking stats in the first few rounds and then selling him off at round 5-7.

That could be a reasonable expectation then. The other reason I didn't list is if the CTR isn't playing well enough, they will need to move Aitken.

mattnz wrote:

That could be a reasonable expectation then. The other reason I didn't list is if the CTR isn't playing well enough, they will need to move Aitken.

That's a fair point, though I don't think they would move him as a first choice before Harris is back, they have a few centres there they could use instead (Pompey, Berry, Arthars, Vailea, and then guys like Montoya and DWZ who they could move to centre if they want to)

Bethany_B wrote:I'm considering deviating from my strict guns/cheapies strategy to get Uto and Aitken in, using the following reasoning.

Angus is priced at about his average (61), while Utoikamanu averaged 55 after moving to starting prop last year, with a clear distinction between starting scores and bench scores. If we see Uto with a starting spot on TLT as expected, then he is clearly value and potentially a genuine gun, at worst a serviceable keeper.

Meanwhile, my current 2nd EDG, Nanai, has a very low PPM and best case scenario averages about 40, while if I downgraded Angus to Uto (giving up 5-10 points for 200k), I can upgrade Nanai to Aitken who would likely average low to mid 50s (so a 10-15 point gain).

The important question for all of my analysis is this: How safe do we think Aitken is on that edge? The Warriors do have a lot of edge forwards, but if Aitken can have a big game or two before Harris is back, he could shoot up to 700k and then be sold off for a gun that's leaked a bit of cash.

You make a good case for the Uto option.

I am not sold on Aitken at 540k. he is the first guy they will shove into the backline after a mid-game injury. And then the reshuffle when Tohu resurfaces adds more doubt for mine. But he will have a decent base, but priced right imho.

Milchcow wrote:

Just remember that Taumalolo started at lock and got big minutes last year.  So what change are you expecting?

The hope would be that all the injuries he got last year hampered is scoring and he is now over them. He got  a lot of scores in the 30s last year. If you are paying for him you don't want to see those again

Agreed Milchy, if on the upside he hits 55 points a game at 620K, why wouldn't we opt for Uto, who has shown he can do the same and costs 557K?

Antipodean1 wrote:

You make a good case for the Uto option.

I am not sold on Aitken at 540k. he is the first guy they will shove into the backline after a mid-game injury. And then the reshuffle when Tohu resurfaces adds more doubt for mine. But he will have a decent base, but priced right imho.

How many mid-game injuries do you think they'll have? Also as I said before, Aitken wouldn't be a long term hold for me, but a short term punt on a couple big attacking games.

The Warriors early draw is very good, with their first 5 games being against the Dragons, Titans, Tigers, Broncos and Cowboys, so the plan with Aitken would be to punt on him getting attacking stats in at least 2 of those games, and then selling him after round 5 (he has Roosters and Storm in rounds 6 and 7)

Bethany_B wrote:

How many mid-game injuries do you think they'll have? Also as I said before, Aitken wouldn't be a long term hold for me, but a short term punt on a couple big attacking games.

The Warriors early draw is very good, with their first 5 games being against the Dragons, Titans, Tigers, Broncos and Cowboys, so the plan with Aitken would be to punt on him getting attacking stats in at least 2 of those games, and then selling him after round 5 (he has Roosters and Storm in rounds 6 and 7)

If you are trying to swing a few early price rises and sling him for an upgrade after 6 rounds, I can see some merit, don't get me wrong, I think he is a solid base player and could easily turn into a keeper, but I would rather pop someone in who will make more $ faster and upgrade to him later if he turns into a keeper.

I ask you this, If he starts getting you 50 points a game in the first 6 rounds, are you really going to trade him out or shift him to the CTR?

I absolutely think he is a solid option, but I am personally going to wait and see on him.

Antipodean1 wrote:

If your trying to swing a few early price rises and sling him for an upgrade after 6 rounds, I can see some merit, don't get me wrong, I think he is a solid base player and could easily turn into a keeper, but I would rather pop someone in who will make more $ faster and upgrade to him later if he turns into a keeper.

I ask you this, If he starts getting you 50 points a game in the first 6 rounds, are you going to trade him out?

Yes, that is the plan with him, few early price rises and then move him on.

In your scenario of him getting 50s, I would sell him in round 6 if there's a genuine gun I can get in, but I wouldn't sell just for the sake of selling him, it would have to be to an actual gun, likely using a fattened cheapie to fund the upgrade.

Antipodean1 wrote:

Agreed Milchy, if on the upside he hits 55 points a game at 620K, why wouldn't we opt for Uto, who has shown he can do the same and costs 557K?

Lolo's upside potential isn't 55, it is in the 60-66 range from both 2019 & 2020. 55 would be a disappointing season.

Uto's max upside, all going to plan is 55.

Milchcow wrote:

He didn't really "own up to it"  The Roosters denied anything happened and swept it under the rug

It was only after the NRL conducted its own investigation that Tedesco realised what a role model he was and needed to let everyone know this. It wasn't an apology for his actions it was an apology for getting caught.

Those are fair insights, I was probably coming across as defending him a bit, when that is not how I feel. People should have integrity and own their mistakes, I was more commenting on the fact he made a right bell-end of himself by trying to explain his reasons for fessing up was because he is a role model - apologies if I did not make that clearer.