NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 9.1562 - Tago Tuesday

Captain roulette landed on Crichton with Haas as vice but at least I own him
Paulo doing a fair bit of work coming out of trouble plus attacking upside looks pretty playable in the 17 if needed

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

I wouldn't call paying $631k for CWalker's 24 points instead of 300k for Ilias' 20 wise.

Ilias was a bad call and it was taboo to question it. I may still keep him to see what happens but it is the lowlight of my week so far. CWalker has potential and is not really relevant to my point about groupthink here. If I stuck to my own judgements about who I should have in my team - Ilias would not have been there

It's taboo to whine about your selections being the fault of others but that doesn't seem to stop you.

So, in a game where both halves scored in the 20's, it's the guy who scored 4 points under his BE that has the problem, rather than the guy who scored 27 points below his BE?

Jake Averillo also scored a 20 first up, and then followed it with a 19 - definitely a dud with no chance he'd make money after that start... I.e. it's one game - let the kid play a handful before deciding whether he's any good or not

Great first night, some real interesting scores. A bit gutted I dropped Arrow to TPJ last minute, however I can't see Arrow doing that every week.. surprise results always change minutes.

Ilias is going to take a lot of self control to hold onto and not knee-jerk sideways trade to a cow more likely to make some cash!

easytiger wrote:

It's taboo to whine about your selections being the fault of others but that doesn't seem to stop you.

So, in a game where both halves scored in the 20's, it's the guy who scored 4 points under his BE that has the problem, rather than the guy who scored 27 points below his BE?

Jake Averillo also scored a 20 first up, and then followed it with a 19 - definitely a dud with no chance he'd make money after that start... I.e. it's one game - let the kid play a handful before deciding whether he's any good or not

Cody Walker selection seemed to me like wanting a player to have a certain role rather than any indication it would actually happen. It would be like if Cleary left Panthers or Moses left Eels. You have an established ball running 6 who is nearly good enough for fantasy selection hoping they take on a role they have never been able to do (dominate kicking and lead the team)

It was slightly different with Keary because he had shown an ability to actually do it in the grand final when Cronk was injured

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Cody Walker selection seemed to me like wanting a player to have a certain role rather than any indication it would actually happen. It would be like if Cleary left Panthers or Moses left Eels. You have an established ball running 6 who is nearly good enough for fantasy selection hoping they take on a role they have never been able to do (dominate kicking and lead the team)

It was slightly different with Keary because he had shown an ability to actually do it in the grand final when Cronk was injured

Definitely, and completely agree.
I think with Walker it's almost a bit worse than that, because it's also painting a picture where Walker just picks up where he left off at the end of last season (a purple patch where he managed 25TA's in his last 12 regular season games).

Anyway, there won't be many occasions where a halves pairing only manage 47 points between them - it seems a bit of an aberration

easytiger wrote:

Definitely, and completely agree.
I think with Walker it's almost a bit worse than that, because it's also painting a picture where Walker just picks up where he left off at the end of last season (a purple patch where he managed 25TA's in his last 12 regular season games).

Anyway, there won't be many occasions where a halves pairing only manage 47 points between them - it seems a bit of an aberration

Most halves pairings seem to average about double that so will see a definite uptick in a game that doesn’t have nearly 30 errors

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Groupthink by definition is making personal decisions on the basis of trying to fit a team narrative. I can't say how others played their hand but I for one reached a conclusion that he had value based on the cajoling of the group, rather than whether I saw it personally! I don't think Ilias is the only player that fits this bill but he is a good example in my situation.

I think if most of us are honest, there would be at least one or two cases of this in all our teams. I could not see him averaging enough to make money and I still don't. I suppose I did not want to miss out.

If you only picked Ilias because other people did, then you would be the exception.

He is a $300k half playing for a top 6 team. Most people would chuck him in their team independently. He was the 5th most popular player in the community team (after Randall, Papenhuyzen, Burton, Crichton) that doesn't happen with someone people have to be persuaded to buy

And its silly to write him off after 1 game, in which Souths played poorly.

Just an interesting (updated) side note I stumbled on while looking into Wilton yesterday;

Teig Wilton has now had 11 starts (9 in the second row, 2 at Centre) for the Sharks for 1 win and 10 losses.
Those losses include losing to the Broncos, Warriors & Bulldogs.

Not to suggest it's his fault, but that's surprising for a team that's normally an even wins & losses type team

easytiger wrote:Just an interesting (updated) side note I stumbled on while looking into Wilton yesterday;

Teig Wilton has now had 11 starts (9 in the second row, 2 at Centre) for the Sharks for 1 win and 10 losses.
Those losses include losing to the Broncos, Warriors & Bulldogs.

Not to suggest it's his fault, but that's surprising for a team that's normally an even wins & losses type team

That’s surprising. I like the cut of his jib. Not just the try but his effort plays were through the roof, backing up the ball runner almost every time it was on the left side of the field. He’s a goer who will have a lot of base

Might be fantasy goggles but I thought he played quite well and every team needs a player or two like that. A little bit like Liam Martin was on Thursday for Penrith

Just wanted to pop in and thank everyone for the preseason chat this year. I have been using my spare time to help Lismore and my work place clean up after the flood and wasn't able to do as much of my own research as I would have liked. Good luck for the season all.

Fraser wrote:Just wanted to pop in and thank everyone for the preseason chat this year. I have been using my spare time to help Lismore and my work place clean up after the flood and wasn't able to do as much of my own research as I would have liked. Good luck for the season all.

I haven't been anywhere near as noble, I've just been busy with work, but I'm also thankful for the help.

I'm 5c/376 so far - pretty standard group of players - Haas (c), Tago, Crichton, Bullemor and Schneider - hopefully my guns can keep up with my rookies

bigbruno wrote:Great first night, some real interesting scores. A bit gutted I dropped Arrow to TPJ last minute, however I can't see Arrow doing that every week.. surprise results always change minutes.

Ilias is going to take a lot of self control to hold onto and not knee-jerk sideways trade to a cow more likely to make some cash!

Illias started doing some decent kicks, he is a bit of a passing bot, but he isn't afraid of a tackle, I reckon just park him in the NPP and wait and see, you aren't missing anyone else in that $ range that isn't going to also have variance, kids first run-out, I had him as my starting half, flip to Schneider and scores will likely reverse next week

easytiger wrote:Just an interesting (updated) side note I stumbled on while looking into Wilton yesterday;

Teig Wilton has now had 11 starts (9 in the second row, 2 at Centre) for the Sharks for 1 win and 10 losses.
Those losses include losing to the Broncos, Warriors & Bulldogs.

Not to suggest it's his fault, but that's surprising for a team that's normally an even wins & losses type team

That might just show how much Wade Graham brings to the Sharks (assuming that when Wilton is starting, Graham is out)

Ilias and Leniu sitting in NPRs is a bonus, can’t help but feel the pressure now for Nanai and Amone and to a lesser extent MKing to perform somewhat decently or next week will be interesting

1. If you’re blaming any of your picks on the forum get your head checked. If you do your research, including listening to those on here and don’t go with your gut you only have yourself to blame

2. Do any of you weapons on here agree it’s better to have less misses with your trades rather than swinging for the fence -mostly with cash cows. In my mind I actively think when I’m doubt get on the second wave, meaning it’s better to wait and see and miss a good score and a week or two of price rises to ensure talent/role and have more of these over a season with a better success rate with your trade ins than be “first” on a player who everyone jump on later?

I was very tempted by Walters over Illias for example but figured Illias was lower risk, probably a slowish burn 100k and Walters likely a better scorer and quicker riser but better to wait the week for confirmation of his role

Lots of cows today, could be some master strokes or end in tears.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

That’s surprising. I like the cut of his jib. Not just the try but his effort plays were through the roof, backing up the ball runner almost every time it was on the left side of the field. He’s a goer who will have a lot of base

Might be fantasy goggles but I thought he played quite well and every team needs a player or two like that. A little bit like Liam Martin was on Thursday for Penrith

From the little I've seen, he looks a good player to me too, plenty of effort, gets involved and adds some quality with his work.
Just a bit of a funny anomaly

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:1. If you’re blaming any of your picks on the forum get your head checked. If you do your research, including listening to those on here and don’t go with your gut you only have yourself to blame

2. Do any of you weapons on here agree it’s better to have less misses with your trades rather than swinging for the fence -mostly with cash cows. In my mind I actively think when I’m doubt get on the second wave, meaning it’s better to wait and see and miss a good score and a week or two of price rises to ensure talent/role and have more of these over a season with a better success rate with your trade ins than be “first” on a player who everyone jump on later?

I was very tempted by Walters over Illias for example but figured Illias was lower risk, probably a slowish burn 100k and Walters likely a better scorer and quicker riser but better to wait the week for confirmation of his role

Week 1 is the exception but I will generally not trade in a player until I’m sure of their role
That might mean I pay 40-50k more than some others that get on early but I burn less trades on your Kyle O’Donnell types from previous season

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

That’s surprising. I like the cut of his jib. Not just the try but his effort plays were through the roof, backing up the ball runner almost every time it was on the left side of the field. He’s a goer who will have a lot of base

Might be fantasy goggles but I thought he played quite well and every team needs a player or two like that. A little bit like Liam Martin was on Thursday for Penrith

I noticed this as well but was watching him like a Hawk because I own him. Many times when it went left, Wilton was running to the ball, wanting the pass/offload and was gonna break through the line. If he got one of those balls could got 80-90 points. H was backing up very frequently.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Looks like Finchy was right about Ilias bloke is a walking missed tackle
But when you get a chance to pay 300k for the half back from a bottom 4 team you have to take it
He goes to position 20 for me now and hope he jags some attacking stats in a more free flowing game

Yeah mate, and he wasn't even being targeted last night either. But to be fair, first game of the season, Rabbits were bad, refresh and go again next week.