NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 19 - Do something Fifita!!!

For those that are bringing in Cleary this week, are you captaining him also?

Camo123 wrote:

Think you’ve missed the boat on Josh King with Grant & BSmith likely back together

Yeah...he's been a great pickup from the start and I've been jealous but I think his minutes take a tumble this week. I could of course be very, very wrong

bigbruno wrote:

Take out Tolo’s TA and Lba from his score last week and tell me you want to keep Tolo again

I want to keep Tolo. Could just as easily say take out his missed tackles (and lack of second stint due to incredibly rare NQ blowout) and tell me you want to sell him

The other thing is that for me with other cows ripening there should be the chance to pick up Cleary in a couple of weeks without losing Difita.

Rabbits21 wrote:Call me a madman but I’m strongly considering captaining Fifita this week. Not sure I have the guts to do it though.

Lemmy KGB wrote:I have the last 3 rounds so might as well again ha

Would it surprise you if I said that Fifita (47.3avg) has received 25% more ball than Beau Fermor (55avg)

Because it's true.
Fifita has averaged 14.7 receipts per game this year, Fermor just 11.7 - but then Fermor is averaging 3 more tackles per game... so there's an extra 3 points for Fermor.

Maybe Fermor is just better getting the ball, or the halves are just better at giving Fermor better ball... or maybe Fifita is a big part of the problem?

I remember Steve Nicholls (RIP) saying the best predictor of future fantasy performance is recent history rather than prior years - In my experience I've found that this right more often than not.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:For those that are bringing in Cleary this week, are you captaining him also?

Think you have to, no point bringing him in if you think he starts slow, otherwise you wait a week or two.

Bring him in and C on straight away.

Brent Read just said on 360 that Ramsey will be out this week cause he's done his hammy

Welshy wrote:

Think you have to, no point bringing him in if you think he starts slow, otherwise you wait a week or two.

Bring him in and C on straight away.

Yeah thinking this way too mate, would be hoping for a 60+ from him easy

Moanaman wrote:



The definition of madness is doing the same thing and expecting a different result

ytsb wrote:
The most misinterpreted quote on this forum

:beer:

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/

Yeah, it's some weird AlNarc/Anon stuff. Not terribly applicable to stats.

easytiger wrote:
I remember Steve Nicholls (RIP) saying the best predictor of future fantasy performance is recent history rather than prior years - In my experience I've found that this right more often than not.

I have read the same thing when talking about fantasy NFL. Too much changes year to year around quality of team mates, opposition to make recent data much more useful.

The claim there was that once you are 8 games into a season, you should only use that data, and not anything from prior years

rhinoceroo wrote:

I want to keep Tolo. Could just as easily say take out his missed tackles (and lack of second stint due to incredibly rare NQ blowout) and tell me you want to sell him

The other thing is that for me with other cows ripening there should be the chance to pick up Cleary in a couple of weeks without losing Difita.

I wouldn't mind getting rid of Tolo (for Cleary cash) but it's a struggle to fill those Mid spots without him

Milchcow wrote:

I have read the same thing when talking about fantasy NFL. Too much changes year to year around quality of team mates, opposition to make recent data much more useful.

The claim there was that once you are 8 games into a season, you should only use that data, and not anything from prior years

8 games and I'd be on the bandwagon he isn't the same fantasy player. So would 100% back this

3 games is too form/opportunity reliant to gather proper data or opinion from

Just an interesting Cleary tidbit in terms of value;

Cleary started the year priced at a 84.3 average ($1,050k / MN of 12452)

I make last rounds magic number to be roughly 13500, which when applied to his price now puts him priced 77.8 - i.e 6.5 points under valued.

Another way of looking at it is an 84.3 average on last weeks MN would be worth $1,138k i.e. underpriced by about $88k - of course it all depends on whether you think he can sustain a similar average to last year as to whether that presents value.

easytiger wrote:Just an interesting Cleary tidbit in terms of value;

Cleary started the year priced at a 84.3 average ($1,050k / MN of 12452)

I make last rounds magic number to be roughly 13500, which when applied to his price now puts him priced 77.8 - i.e 6.5 points under valued.

Another way of looking at it is an 84.3 average on last weeks MN would be worth $1,138k i.e. underpriced by about $88k - of course it all depends on whether you think he can sustain a similar average to last year as to whether that presents value.

My ONLY worry is looking at this years halves with dominant KM, and not scoring as well as previous, but that has all ben factored into the cost hasn't it?

easytiger wrote:



Would it surprise you if I said that Fifita (47.3avg)  has received 25% more ball than Beau Fermor (55avg)

Because it's true.
Fifita has averaged 14.7 receipts per game this year, Fermor just 11.7 - but then Fermor is averaging 3 more tackles per game... so there's an extra 3 points for Fermor.

Maybe Fermor is just better getting the ball, or the halves are just better at giving Fermor better ball... or maybe Fifita is a big part of the problem?

I remember Steve Nicholls (RIP) saying the best predictor of future fantasy performance is recent history rather than prior years - In my experience I've found that this right more often than not.

Yeah something else is teams game plans & strategy change each year and therefore individual involvement. It’s something that is focussed on a lot in NFL fantasy (but not so much in NRL). Often the most talented RB in NFL can start getting shit fantasy scores if they start a more pass happy offense - same thing can happen in NRL if they start running the real attack through another player - and start using their stars as decoys.

Welshy wrote:

My ONLY worry is looking at this years halves with dominant KM, and not scoring as well as previous, but that has all ben factored into the cost hasn't it?

It has been factored in, and also don't forget that Cleary only got 25 out of his 91 point average from KM. Take ALL them away and he still averaged 66. He gets points from so many places, he's still gunna gun it. Can't wait to get him back in.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:For those that are bringing in Cleary this week, are you captaining him also?

Did you even read WT Winfields sales pitch?
Of course I'm going to make him captain over Haas, Hynes, Fifita, Burton and Papy

Welshy wrote:

My ONLY worry is looking at this years halves with dominant KM, and not scoring as well as previous, but that has all ben factored into the cost hasn't it?

As Snatchpato said the KM & TB nerf has been factored in.
Or you could see it as he's priced at 78 for his 2021 average of 91 - so 13 points to play with.

Personally, I'm probably still waiting a week, but I don't see a lot to suggest he won't once again be the top scorer in Fantasy this year.

Chewie wrote:

Did you even read WT Winfields sales pitch?
Of course I'm going to make him captain over Haas, Hynes, Fifita, Burton and Papy

Yessir I was one of the 36 upvoters

Dragons are in big strife if they continue with that same spine.

If I want to use Crichton and Mahoney to get Cleary and Leo I’ll be in some trouble. I’d be left with Mann, Ming, Bully, Leniu and Leo. Leniu and Bully aren’t playable. Ming and Leo could easily put up a pair of 25-30s and Mann isn’t nailed on for a big score at all.

Makes this week tough for trades