Home
ytsb wrote:I think one thing we need to be wary of is bias stemming from optimism. I am one of the worst for it. A recurring theme throughout my seasons is being willing to go without cover (oh just one more week without cover won't hurt, look at this new shiny cow I absolutely must get in!). As a result, last season I played with 13 one round, and the season before 14, when one of those injury-rich rounds occured. This has been addressed this year by putting cover over cash generation (i.e. having BSmith and XCoates). I also have no issue with playing "cashies" who should be locked away in the 18-21 as starters. This is something I am still doing this season.
It is interesting to see the Cleary bias this time around. "ohh i'll just wait a couple weeks and Cleary will likely drop some cash, won't be a problem". He was the best scorer by a mile last season, and with the addition of Captain points it seems that even if he does drop to 950k, that 100k price drop is still going to net you plenty of points over the 3 rounds or so it'll take him to get there. On the flip side, people are trading in Cleary with minimal consideration that games seem to be slower as a whole with a bunch of nerfs affecting players that love a fast-paced game to build momentum and score plenty of points (best example of this is Turbo).
Personally? I'm trading in Cleary, I just think it's interesting seeing a lot of bias come to the fore when we discuss players.
If you asked me before R1 where I'd be ranked right now, I'd tell you I think my team has plenty of upside and I would be at minimum in the top 1k. I'm ranked 16k. It's so hard to make objective decisions and of course anybody you ask who has their mind set on a certain trade or a strategy will swear black and blue and mention a bunch of statistics to support their ideas, but very infrequently does a plan come to fruition to the degree imagined.
I am starting to realise that keeping it simple stupid is often a great strategy. Don't overthink things, just fucking do it.
Sorry for the wanky post, I've got Covid and bored shitless.
Not a wanky post, just not sure on your meaning of bias in your post. Yes, people are often blinded by what they already think and can use stats to justify anything to make their decision.
I didn't know what all the fuss about Leo Thompson was last week, and also usually become very stubborn in not picking up players like Tago (and Lomax in prior season). Ended up biting the bullet and going Ilias + Bullemor to Thompson and Tago, so thanks to the forum on helping me to see another viewpoint.
My thoughts on Cleary is that shoulder surgery is a big deal, so is no trials, so is coming in round 4 when all other players have played 3 rounds.
Yes, he will probably average the most out of everyone come seasons end, but I do feel there is a chance he could start slow.
With Hynes and Haas as captaincy options, I'm willing to buy on points per $ whilst the season is still young. Prioritising cash cows before Cleary.
thank you very much 
)