NRL fantasy 2022 - Part 48 - Would the real bye planners please stand up? Please stand up?

mrbrownstone wrote:So how many players are everyone aiming for in R13?

After trades this week I should have 9 (potentially 11 if the two Crichtons somehow miss Origin). Plan to use at least 3, maybe 4 next week to have 12-13, with Ilias, Taaffe, Hunt, and Penisini being on the out list.

I’ll aim for 13/14 I think at this stage

Loomer wrote:




I've said more than enough about Walsh as ex-owner since Rd 3. Are people that got him few weeks ago happy?

You are correct in saying that you have said enough about Walsh, we all know your opinion. In needs balancing as a result, so I'll provide a counter argument. Just because you got unlucky there, doesn't mean he's not a buy now.

Last year, Walsh averaged 48.6. That's old scoring, but what he loses with new scoring, he almost makes back with increased goal kicking (Only GK part of the year last year) He's currently priced around 35. Seems like value to me.

Last year Walsh scored a try, a line break, a try assist and a line break assist, on average, in more games than he didn't. This year he hasn't scored a single try. He has gone close a few times though, just unlucky. The nature of the position means that a WFB's average will be made up scores in the 30's like Walsh's last three games, but will also include games where they go large. Walsh hasn't really had his yet. You are saying he won't. I am betting that he will. I might get him this week unless I grab Kiraz first due to break even urgency. Unlike Taaffe who is a spud you were correct on, Walsh is an excellent player.

TL/DR; Walsh is a decent bye round selection. Don't let Loomer put you off.

At the moment I am definitely trading Taaffe to Kiraz this week. Passes the eye test and I don't think he needs to score trys to get a decent score. Also plays R13

The other trade is Randall to a MID or EDG that plays R13. I could go Tohu but think he has one more price drop left and the other options currently provide a bit more value. I am tossing up between the following:

Tevaga ($652k) - putting up good scores, with AFB and Lodge out you'd think he is locked in for 50 mins + and an average of around 55. This would make him around $120k underpriced. That said I am slightly concerned for his minutes. Egan is returning, Tohu building back up to huge minutes and Curran to return soonish (?). He is also the most expensive of the non-Tohu options

Butcher ($526k) - played on the edge but will most likely revert to lock this week? Averages 52 when playing 60 mins +. I've seen reports Radley is due back in 4-8 weeks. 4 weeks would mean he makes around $100k and is a bit of a wasted trade. 6-8 weeks should see him make $150k+ and be a reliable scorer in the 17 through to R17.

A.Elliot ($489k) - Watching him he looks in form and has played a role in the Raiders resurgence. I think minutes most likely a bit low last week due to recovering from the Flu, however the form of Woolford may have changed his role. In many ways he is my preferred trade in as he can make good coin and can win a secure role going forward. That said, he is coached by Ricky and that means ongoing stress re his minutes.

Have seen RFM ($391k) mentioned over the past 24 hours, I think he is definitely a wait and see. Not confident at all that his body will hold up and unless I've missed something, no real indication that he is due for a bulk increase to his minutes.

Are there any other options I've missed? Can anyone talk me into one of the above?

Any news on AFB?

Mulvy wrote:

You are correct in saying that you have said enough about Walsh, we all know your opinion. In needs balancing as a result, so I'll provide a counter argument. Just because you got unlucky there, doesn't mean he's not a buy now.

Last year, Walsh averaged 48.6. That's old scoring, but what he loses with new scoring, he almost makes back with increased goal kicking (Only GK part of the year last year) He's currently priced around 35. Seems like value to me.

Last year Walsh scored a try, a line break, a try assist and a line break assist, on average, in more games than he didn't. This year he hasn't scored a single try. He has gone close a few times though, just unlucky. The nature of the position means that a WFB's average will be made up scores in the 30's like Walsh's last three games, but will also include games where they go large. Walsh hasn't really had his yet. You are saying he won't. I am betting that he will. I might get him this week unless I grab Kiraz first due to break even urgency. Unlike Taaffe who is a spud you were correct on, Walsh is an excellent player.

TL/DR; Walsh is a decent bye round selection. Don't let Loomer put you off.

I've been looking at Walsh too, at 486K, he's great value. I just fear now he and his team were already struggling but now Lodge and AFB gone, doesn't help his case. Harris does offset that a little however.

I'm starting to wonder if R17 is the bye to go particularly hard at. Feels like there's a few more genuine gun options:

- Hynes
- iPap
- Matterson
- Reynolds
- Klemmer
- Pap
- Brailey (maybe? If back by then)
- Moses
- Ofahengaue
- Mahoney
- Carrigan
- Twal
- Hughes
- D Brown
- Hastings
- Doueihi
- McInness
- Talakai
- Lucy (high floor, high ceiling, plays R13 17 etc)
- Lomax
- Ramien
- Gutherson
- Nofo
- Barnett
- Penisini
- B Smith
- Stefano

Hynes, Pap, Ofa, Klemmer, Matterson, Talakai, Carrigan all maybes for Origin I guess, but I'd be surprised if more than a couple make it.

wolfking wrote:

I've been looking at Walsh too, at 486K, he's great value.  I just fear now he and his team were already struggling but now Lodge and AFB gone, doesn't help his case.  Harris does offset that a little however.

Alternatively, maybe he has to try to do more by himself and that helps the attacking output?

Mulvy wrote:



Last year Walsh scored a try, a line break, a try assist and a line break assist, on average, in more games than he didn't. This year he hasn't scored a single try. He has gone close a few times though, just unlucky. The nature of the position means that a WFB's average will be made up scores in the 30's like Walsh's last three games, but will also include games where they go large. Walsh hasn't really had his yet. You are saying he won't. I am betting that he will.

Sounds like Gambler's fallacy

I jumped on Walsh last week and it was fairly frustrating watching him. Warriors don't give him any attacking ball in the red zone, more often than not it was Dejan Asi being used on the sweep play.

I traded Walsh in due to the upside mentioned above by Mulvy as well an his involvement in the Magic Round match vs Rabbits. Looking back at that match, much of Walsh's involvement came getting involved through dummy half runs rather than being able to work his magic off the back of a structured set or broken field play via an offload.

Tommy_gun wrote:At the moment I am definitely trading Taaffe to Kiraz this week. Passes the eye test and I don't think he needs to score trys to get a decent score. Also plays R13

The other trade is Randall to a MID or EDG that plays R13. I could go Tohu but think he has one more price drop left and the other options currently provide a bit more value. I am tossing up between the following:

Tevaga ($652k) - putting up good scores, with AFB and Lodge out you'd think he is locked in for 50 mins + and an average of around 55. This would make him around $120k underpriced. That said I am slightly concerned for his minutes. Egan is returning, Tohu building back up to huge minutes and Curran to return soonish (?). He is also the most expensive of the non-Tohu options

Butcher ($526k) - played on the edge but will most likely revert to lock this week? Averages 52 when playing 60 mins +. I've seen reports Radley is due back in 4-8 weeks. 4 weeks would mean he makes around $100k and is a bit of a wasted trade. 6-8 weeks should see him make $150k+ and be a reliable scorer in the 17 through to R17.

A.Elliot ($489k) - Watching him he looks in form and has played a role in the Raiders resurgence. I think minutes most likely a bit low last week due to recovering from the Flu, however the form of Woolford may have changed his role. In many ways he is my preferred trade in as he can make good coin and can win a secure role going forward. That said, he is coached by Ricky and that means ongoing stress re his minutes.

Have seen RFM ($391k) mentioned over the past 24 hours, I think he is definitely a wait and see. Not confident at all that his body will hold up and unless I've missed something, no real indication that he is due for a bulk increase to his minutes.

Are there any other options I've missed? Can anyone talk me into one of the above?

In response to RFM. I’m hoping he is following the Harris mould of 25 minutes first game back from the bench then starting in his second match with increased minutes and then hopefully back to his 70 minute role where he averages close to 50.

Obviously it’s unlikely but if hes named to start I’ve got nothing much to lose

wolfking wrote:

Or take a punt on Cotric.

Good shout mate,hadn’t even considered him. Put it this way,if I bring in Kiraz/Cotric that means I can bring in Burton/Tevaga/Harris for Leo where if I bring in Walsh I would need to move on someone like Schneider or Ilias which doesn’t seem to make as much sense with Schneider possibly playing round 13 and Ilias tracking okish. This is based on holding Lolo too which isnt ideal but hopefully he will just be out this week

mrbrownstone wrote:I'm starting to wonder if R17 is the bye to go particularly hard at. Feels like there's a few more genuine gun options:

- Hynes
- iPap
- Matterson
- Reynolds
- Klemmer
- Pap
- Brailey (maybe? If back by then)
- Moses
- Ofahengaue
- Mahoney
- Carrigan
- Twal
- Hughes
- D Brown
- Hastings
- Doueihi
- McInness
- Talakai
- Lucy (high floor, high ceiling, plays R13 17 etc)
- Lomax
- Ramien
- Gutherson
- Nofo
- Barnett
- Penisini
- B Smith
- Stefano

Hynes, Pap, Ofa, Klemmer, Matterson, Talakai, Carrigan all maybes for Origin I guess, but I'd be surprised if more than a couple make it.

R17 is what I'll be targetting more so. Happy with 10/11 for R13.

danseels1985 wrote:

Good shout mate,hadn’t even considered him. Put it this way,if I bring in Kiraz/Cotric that means I can bring in Burton/Tevaga/Harris for Leo where if I bring in Walsh I would need to move on someone like Schneider or Ilias which doesn’t seem to make as much sense with Schneider possibly playing round 13 and Ilias tracking okish. This is based on holding Lolo too which isnt ideal but hopefully he will just be out this week

I hadn't considered him either. Had a look at scores 26, 10, 13, 35, 25 before a 53 with try against woeful Rabbits. I don't know that I want to use 2 trades for that risk just for Rd 13 player

Targeting round 17 is interesting. Hadn’t really taken much notice of the players who play that round.

Plenty of players in that list you’d be happy to run home with I think

My bye round team after trades this week.

Robson
Cotter, AElliott, Ming
TPJ, Tago
Sexton, Schneider
Burton, Aitken
May, Koula, Kiraz

Starling, DWalker, SCrichton, Vailea


If SCrichton plays origin I can trade him to Tohu next week

Chewie wrote:My bye round team after trades this week.

Robson
Cotter, AElliott, Ming
TPJ, Tago
Sexton, Schneider
Burton, Aitken
May, Koula, Kiraz

Starling, DWalker, SCrichton, Vailea


If SCrichton plays origin I can trade him to Tohu next week

Jesus

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Targeting round 17 is interesting. Hadn’t really taken much notice of the players who play that round.

Plenty of players in that list you’d be happy to run home with I think

Yep, forgot to add that to my reply. Plenty you'd be happy to have on the run home.

WT2K wrote:

Yep, forgot to add that to my reply. Plenty you'd be happy to have on the run home.

Might just try and go for cows this week and next to build a bank heading towards 17

Loomer wrote:

Sounds like Gambler's fallacy

"The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events".

Not really what I'm talking about here. I'm not expecting black because the last three were red. I'm expecting that a really good rugby league player, who has scored plenty of tries in the past, will eventually start scoring them again this year too, sooner or later. And if he does, 486k is a bargain.

I'm targeting 14-15 for R13. After this weeks trades (being very generous) have 14 minus any of Scritta, Burton, Nanai, Billy Smith, Luki, Lolo that don't play that round due to Origin, club selection or injury.

This week I think I'm going Leo + Tuilagi to Kiraz + SJ. SJ definitely a bit of a risk both injury and performance wise but seems to be on the up since partnering Asi and the Warriors tend to do better during origin.

Have 15 trades left after this week, Plan on using 3-4 next week then 10 leading up to R17. That'll leave 1-2 + 4 in R19 to see me home and hope to dodge too many injuries.