The Betting Thread

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

See that is ridiculous odds. Will probably get even better on the dumb arse NZ TAB too!! I'll think I'll be all over that. Whats the status of Mannering and Tui?

tui is definitely gone. no update on mannering yet.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:My basic rules of thumb for this season. Don't back the Warriors, and don't back against the Broncos.

fair rules to live by, as just mentioned, the dragons at a good price (or with +4.5 at hte line) and the broncos @ 1.80 h2h look good.

as a broncos fan though i reckon we've had a pretty easy run. Eels, warriors, knights & titans all had key injuries (pre or during game), + souths and dragons were just, really bad.

Was that 350k pool a dog race R&T ?

Revraiser wrote:Was that 350k pool a dog race R&T ?

Nah, "pools" on the NZ TAB is where you have to pick the winning margin (12- or 13+ or Draw) for 10 specified league/union matches (they still do it I think). When I did it the pool was $350k and 5 of us got it so split the $350k between us. It was a while back. From memory it included ITM cup games and a couple Union internationals. All I remember for sure is the last game was Auckland v BOP and I had 2 legs left (Auck 12- & 13+). So just needed an Auck win. they won 13+. I chose not to watch the game. Not sure my heart could have handled it.

Same goes for last nights match. $10k resting on the Storm to beat the Warriors. I just looked at an update here and there. Was over in about 30 min though so heart did ok

Oh and for anyone interested in that Chiefs Union bet the line has already gone out 2 points on the NZ TAB so if you can pick it up on your local for anything better than 12 points I reckon its a good bet.

my tv broke wrote:

fair rules to live by, as just mentioned, the dragons at a good price (or with +4.5 at hte line) and the broncos @ 1.80 h2h look good.

as a broncos fan though i reckon we've had a pretty easy run. Eels, warriors, knights & titans all had key injuries (pre or during game), + souths and dragons were just, really bad.

So I can get the Dragons at $2.50 on the NZ TAB or 5.5 points. I reckon that is a solid bet. I may also go for Dragons 13+ in case the Warriors capitulate again pays $6.5.

he Warriors will play the odd good game at home, even when they are going arse, but chances are without Mannering and a rookie FB they will get pumped again so those odds are way over for mine.

Haven't seen enough of the Sharks this year. You reckon odds are about right for the Broncs?

Manly only 7.5 point Dogs over here so not enough for me. Maybe enough to back NQ though.

Will wait on some team news before I put anything down.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Same goes for last nights match. $10k resting on the Storm to beat the Warriors. I just looked at an update here and there. Was over in about 30 min though so heart did ok

did you hedge it? at least for a small return?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Haven't seen enough of the Sharks this year. You reckon odds are about right for the Broncs?

i think by kickoff the bronx will be closer to $1.65. the sharks have looked really strong in patches but pretty clunky in others. they are getting the job done but at the same time haven't faced terribly stiff opposition (or teams in a slump). the broncos have had a pretty easy run as well but they havent really got out of second gear yet.

i think the broncos should win but i'm not 100% confident.

my tv broke wrote:

did you hedge it? at least for a small return?

Nah I didn't on that one - sometimes I do sometimes I don't. I was pretty confident the Warriors wouldn't win to be honest, the whole club is an absolute shambles.

Isaac Luke is completely off his game albeit trying to stick it out despite having pretty big issues with his new baby (he really should have just taken some time out IMO), loosing RTS was apparently a massive body blow for club morale, and everyone at the club knows that the lack of go-forward from the big boys is really making life tough for everyone and as a result instead of lifting their games they have all dropped their bottom lips. McFadden by all accounts is effectively gone (just not sure when the club will actually make the move), and the rhetoric coming out of the coaches and management post games these days hasn't really changed since the drubbing they took pre-season down in Christchurch which is a real concern (Just listened to Justin Morgan on the radio this morning and it was the same old crap). It sounds like they have issues right across the board, owners, management, coaches, and players. I'm not expecting anything to change this season. They'll win the odd game when they get on a roll on but will lose the majority I'd say.

I actually reckon a small wager on SG to win by a big margin is good value this weekend - no Mannering is another massive blow, although given his roll in the club maybe, just maybe everyone will realise they really need to up their game to make yup for his absence. That being said ff the Warriors don't start well they could easily get done by 20+.

Time will tell I guess.

I haven't actively posted bets for many years, so might pay to wait and see how I go before following....

I hope those that were interested got on the Chiefs at -10.5 as the line has moved out to 14.5 and looking likely to head to at least 15.5. I managed to get on at -10.5 at PP with a slightly discounted price so pretty happy with that. Sharks form is overrated after a win away v Highlanders (who are playing absolute arse lately), and a close game v the Blues (absolute arse the last 5+ years). They are a negative team that can't score to save themselves, have a couple injuries to key players, and are coming up against the comps best attacking team. I reckon the Chiefs win by 20+.

8 unit play (max play for me is 10) on PP at $1.75

The other play for me this week so far is SG over the Warriors via a few alternative bets. Been discussed a bunch already but SG are going for 12 in a row v the Warriors from memory, and the Warriors are just in complete disarray. The Warriors are a bit of a lottery team so wouldnt be surprised if they pull finger and win, but the rhetoric all sounds the same since the Storm game and the odds for mine are too good to refuse on SG.

1 unit 13+ @$6.5 NZ TAB
2 units SH H2H @$2.65 NZ TAB (that line has tightened but $2.5 is still available).
and 3 units SG +5.5 @$1.87 NZ TAB

The other leans I have this week are possibly the Brumbies to upset the Highlanders - Highlanders have been absolute rubbish the last couple of games. They've lost some key players both in the off season and now during the regular season too and just don't seem to be coping. Most notably in the front row, the centres, No. 8, and wing. The Brumbies on the other hand are a better team than they have demonstrated the last couple games so $3 on WH is good money I reckon. The point start (+7.5 preferably) is there for a safer option.

I'm also considering taking the points on the Kings v the Jaguares (currently at about +26.5) and also looking at a multi of Chiefs, Souths, Roosters.

isaac luke pretty honest in saying he doesnt deserve the kiwi jumper but nothing about what he said (in at least the quotes we're given) suggest he's about to turn it around..

my tv broke wrote:isaac luke pretty honest in saying he doesnt deserve the kiwi jumper but nothing about what he said (in at least the quotes we're given) suggest he's about to turn it around..

Yeah I've heard the audio of the main parts of that press conference. I'll give you my take on it for what its worth and then relay what Allen Mac had to say.

EDIT: Video of Luke's comments in this link if you are interested https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/sport/league/six-warriors-including-vatuvei-matulino-axed-in-disciplinary-move-missing-review-42-0-melbourne-thrashing

To me Luke sounded pretty dejected to the point of almost sounding like he had given up a bit, or at least seriously conceded defeat with respect to the battles he has been facing recently. Im pretty sure he knows the responsibilities he was supposed to take on at this club and not only has he failed in terms of the motivational side of things for the club, but he has seriously failed in terms of his own play which I think has come as a massive shock to many. I heard a stat that either he has missed the most or second most tackles of any Warrior. Anyway, to me he sounded pretty down and while honest it didn't fill me with confidence that he will be back on top of things any time soon.

Then Allan Mac came on and spoke on the radio. First and foremost he said that there are likely to me more changes to the run on side but that all media were ushered out of training straight after warmups so they didn't have any insight into the likely changes. He indicated however that he though Luke would not be starting and neither would Gubb, so either Tevaga or Roache would start (probably Jazz), and there would be a re-shulffle that would see Gubb back to the bench and one of the other lads starting at 13, didn't say who though.

Mmmm, great start Worst of all it looked like Souths was gonna win despite being 20 points down at one stage. Rubbish kick coverage and a horrible opening 20, they really didn't deserve to win.. Oh well.

i was on souths -8. i dont know what i was thinking. i honestly thought souths back home would dig in. they werent that bad against the bronx apart from silly dropped ball and were within 6 pts in the second half, but when reynolds went off they lost their way. so i thought a week on they would kick up another gear. uhh

not so confident in the broncos at the moment. with blair ruled out and macca out, we will be really tested around the middle especially against the sharks pack. macca and blair are the two that get through a hell of a lot of dirty work around the ruck so the other blokes will really need to stand up and stay alert.

Yeah, sux huh!

I have another bet which I reckon is very good value and one that in all likelihood would need to get on sooner rather than later. That is Fiji to win gold at Rio in the sevens. While perennial favourites NZ's campaign has been thrown in turmoil with multiple injuries, the recent withdrawal of star player Ardie Savea, the majority of the All Black XVs players turning down the opportunity to play, and the NZRU managing the whole thing in an extremely confusing way, the Fijians have brought in 5 star XVs players from Europe to play the next series: Leone Nakarawa, Waisea Nayacalevu, Josua Tuisova, Samisoni Viriviri and Semi Kunatani will all likely play in Paris in mid May.

Heaps of teams can win any given tournament so by no means is this a sure bet but odds of $3.75 (perhaps more on other bookies) for mine is very appealing. Fiji has won 3 of 8 tournaments this year, and is always a contender. Adding in the mix some of these star players (hugely excited to see Nakarawa play) I reckon they are more like an even money or 2:1 shot. The one thing that would concern me with this bet is the possibility of NZ bringing in late players which the NZRU haven't ruled out.

I'm gonna get on them, but will search out better odds. $4 would be fantastic.

dogs got out to -4 at the line but are now back to -2.5.

i think the dogs will win but why the swing back to parra?

If u look at form in recent weeks i reckon parra is better.
Better results. Aside from foran out now being a spanner.
I havent liked the look of the dogs all year personally.

After loading up on the eels, i decided to try and cash in on the hype that is around this holden cup panthers team, took the -22.5 doubled up with the eels winnings, panthers win 72-10 !
Dont like to boast about winnings after the fact, but makes a great start to the holidays

Cant pinpoint why i like the raiders today but im on them at the +4.5

Good on u MTB.

Get on the Brumbies this afternoon, they should win and offering about $3.40