The Betting Thread

STG X MEL X BRI = $4.82

seems plump

On all of those but as single bets:
Dragons +4.5 (early in the week)
Storm -3.5
Bronx @ 1.80

Over 45.5 in this early game @ $3.00.

Fuck the dragons

With the score 18-10 you can get $2.30 for the warriors to be over 24.5 points, great value.

Yeah baby ! Never been so happy for a team to take the meaningless two !

Haha wow. Good get

my tv broke wrote:Haha wow. Good get

Next up is 1st try scorer in the Storm game - 'Any unlisted storm player' @ $9.00

Lol easy as

100% for me this week, sadly the that was 100% losing record. What a shocker lol.

im glad there is a week off. need a refresh as thinking has been all wrong in the last couple of weeks.

i feel like NZ +13.5 is a good bet

edit: its now +14.

I was going to suggest that I think there is some value in the Canes to win the Super Rugby last week (overall winner). I haven't looked at the odds since but suspect they have come in a bit after their big away win in SA. I watched them lose a game they really should have won (quite easily) vs the Chiefs (overall favourites) a couple weeks back, and have kept a bit of an eye on the other serious contenders and believe the odds available is worth a crack.

At this stage The OZ teams don't look like they will be able to contend (Iguess you have to have the Brumbies in the conversation but they'v lost comfortably to 3 NZ teams of late so I can't see them winning). Probably the only SA team up there is the Stormers, but I think that would be unlikely, so that leaves the NZ Teams. Blues are no good, Highlanders have had too many disruptions this year, so just left with the Crusaders, Chiefs and Canes.

I just can't see how a team with more than 15 injuries and a scrum that looks like it would struggle against a club team can win the required string of games that it takes to win a tournament. I think at some stage the Chiefs will get tripped up by a team with a dominant forward pack who chips away at them with penalties and field position, so whilst they are the favourites at the very least I don't think their odds provide value, and would actually be a bit surprised if they win the title.

The Crusaders are a much improved team but I still don't think they have the punch in the backs to win the tournament. Nadolo is pretty much their only power in the backs and I'm not sure thats enough. He is also out for a few weeks due to suspension so that might hurt their spot on the ladder.

That leaves the Canes. Finalists last year but a team that has lost 2 key players in Smith and Nonu. While they are still coming to terms with filling that mid-filed gap they have actually looked really solid all over the park. Front row is the best in NZ (form wise), tight 5 is solid, and the loosies are excellent. They have fantastic players at the key positions of 8,9, and 10 (all All Blacks) and pretty solid backs. By no means a sure thing but with odds available as much as $10 I reckon that is good value. Anything over $8 is pretty good I reckon!!

Australia to score over 4.5 tries tonight @ 1.80 looks a done deal. Without even thinking it will be a stroll, i still see 5 tries from the aussies regardless. Eat it up boys.

Revraiser wrote:Australia to score over 4.5 tries tonight @ 1.80 looks a done deal. Without even thinking it will be a stroll, i still see 5 tries from the aussies regardless. Eat it up boys.

Hot damn, i think im out in this thread. Everything posted comes undone.

I'm on Swans by 61-72 paying $5.50

Revraiser wrote:

Hot damn, i think im out in this thread. Everything posted comes undone.

Posting on here had that effect for me too.... As a result I didn't post this week and did much better

Lost a packet on the Chiefs though (Union), but more than made up for it with OZ -14.5 (bloody lucky though), PNG (live betting), Samoa, Waratahs, & Man U.

Have GS and Miami in NBA today.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Posting on here had that effect for me too.... As a result I didn't post this week and did much better

Lost a packet on the Chiefs though (Union), but more than made up for it with OZ -14.5 (bloody lucky though), PNG (live betting), Samoa, Waratahs, & Man U.

Have GS and Miami in NBA today.

I've had a bizarre 3 weeks, i don't normally punt so much but being on holidays and in between some out and about activities i have totally cleaned up. Im not a fan of posting winning wagers after the fact, but fair dinkum i am up $5,500K in the last 3 weeks. You can tell you are on a roll when you back two winners of separate golf tournaments on the final days play (Hahn and Wang, both won overnight)

Got up early today and watched the Cavs in the NBA, was a ripper of a finish. Thunder up next.

Maybe stay away from the Union for a while hey

Souths playing the pointless Eels playing for 0 points paying $2.50 is too good to miss

Your Name wrote:Souths playing the pointless Eels playing for 0 points paying $2.50 is too good to miss

i saw that earlier. whats going on here? are the eels going to be 'conditionally approved' to play for points before the game or something?

that said i dont know if i can back souths. they've been woeful

my tv broke wrote:

i saw that earlier. whats going on here? are the eels going to be 'conditionally approved' to play for points before the game or something?

that said i dont know if i can back souths. they've been woeful

Who knows, I was reading on the weekend the Eels are trying to get away with deregistering Chock to make up the gap, but other clubs wont have it. So they will be missing Foran, Semi signed when he thought he was rich when he had $100 fijian so he's contract is worth nothing. Norman +1 would have to go because they still need to bring in plodders on base salaries to make up the 25. Or play for 0.

As bad as souffs are it just seems like I'd kick myself if I wasn't on it.