The Betting Thread

Welshy wrote:

Fuck me sideways, he's done it! congrats on the win!

Oh no it hasn't won yet let's not get ahead of ourselves. But when it does! Totally rolling over the full amount into ManU tomorrow morning!!

Moose wrote:
Thats all well and good but there are many times like the games over the weekend where I have made several bets just before the game starts and the last thing on my mind is "shit I better update the lads on Fantasy Fanatics and post up the bets I just placed". Like the times where I might be out and about or at the local or even a mates place watching a game where Ill place a few bets after some pre game discussion.

I see your point though and will endeavor to post in here pre game with my bets however I can't guarantee that will always be the case. I'm sure you can understand that.

Yeah I understand not posting every bet, but don't also come into a betting thread and say you've cleaned up and don't even post details about the bet. It doesn't help any of us make money, it doesn't show us what you've done and whether we can have a look at doing something similar next week. It's literally a "look at me" post.

Mighty fishes will be our personal online bookie before we know it

OK guys, here's an attempt to resurrect this thread and actually post something with content.

The All Blacks continue to be way over-valued. In meaningful tests this year the ABs have covered the spread only once out of 6 games. I think the ABs are no-where as good as the bookies are pricing them at these days.

This dates back to the Lions series where they only won 1 out r 3 games and I think was typified 3 weeks ago OZ probably should have beaten them and would have paid $10. Last week the spread was ~30 and while they won by 17 if Argentina had more with in their own abilities (and Im talking about when the ABs were down to 14 players) I reckon Argentina could have at least pushed the ABs to the last 5 min if not actually won the whole thing.

So here's why the ABs are struggling so much. 1) they are still being priced as the team that was so dominant over the last 8 years, but they aren't the same team. They are without McCaw, Carter, Nonu, & C Smith to name a few. 2) they have key injury problems of their own, Owen Franks and now Moody are both out (these guys, in particular Franks play a massive role in the ABs), they are also missing Ben Smith. 3) The replacements for said players don't fill the gaps left by them. In particular Sam Cane/Ardie Savea are far from McCaw. B Barrett is IMO still not that great as a starting 10 at international level. Damian MacKenzie, while he is awesome at Super Rugby level is getting completely shown up at test level. Dane Coles is still a mile away from his best post a very long injury lay-off.

Take SA plus the points, tease it up to the low 20s and you should be pretty safe!

Mitre Ten Cup.

If you have been following my posts the value so far this year has been on the overs, on Northland, on North Harbour, on Canterbury, and betting against Auckland, Manawatu, and HB.

I think you can pretty much scrap most of that now as the bookies have finally caught up. Before I look at the odds and matches for this week, here's where things are at now:

Sides starting to show form which the bookies probably haven't caught up with yet: Tasman & Otago

Sides in a slump which still might provide value betting against: Auckland, Manawatu.

The only really dominant side which you can count on week in week out - Canterbury!

The only match I've looked at so far this week is tonights game Canterbury vs Counties. It looks like Pulu is back for Counties so that probably adds 7-10 points to their attack, but Canterbury have named a full strength side buy the looks so I think they should cover. If you want to be safer tease it down to 13+ or 15+, but I think they cover the spread of -17.5.

Will check out the remaining games and try and post later.

Revraiser wrote: Mighty fishes will be our personal online bookie before we know it

I'm slowly building an empire

For what its worth, I don't really see any value on the lines that are ut there currently.

The only one I'll likely get on, subject to team naming, is Taranaki 13+.

I will keep an eye out for totals on the Tasman Otago game (I'm expecting something around 63 and think it could go over) and also Manawatu Waikato, expecting a high scoring one there but would need to see teams and weather.

Oh and for NFL followers I put on a couple multis today on division winners:

Anchored: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Tennessee
and last leg went with either Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or Carolina

Its mainly for a bit of a laugh and something to keep me entertained for the season but payouts are not insignificant at ~85k, $65k, and $45k respectively!

My NFL 5 fold for the weekend

Bengals -6
Ravens -8
Redskins
Chiefs -4.5
Raiders -14

£5 for £153.31 return

Canterbury has gobbled up that 17.5 points in 18 minutes. Currently lead 22- 0. Im not sure I can see Counties getting back into this one. Im calling it now - chalk up another win

By the way, this is what I love about the Mitre Ten Cup - so great to see all the young talent on show and clearly some stars of the future. Dunshea, Ennor, Bridge, and Sanders to name a few tonight.

Oh and still not half time and Drummond has just crossed for his forth try of the game! Score update 43 - 0!

What a white wash. That's the last time we are going to get decent odds on Canterbury. Might be time to take a punt on the futures for Mitre 10 Cup winner

No Worries wrote:What a white wash. That's the last time we are going to get decent odds on Canterbury. Might be time to take a punt on the futures for Mitre 10 Cup winner

Yeah man, I think the bookies will wise up to them now. Great win last night though, gives me some decent coin to lay down later this round if I see value! Still nothing jumping out at me though....

I still think Canterbury will be backable in games where the start is <35 points, but obviously dependent on the opposition. And I also think you'll see Canterbury doing a bit of rest and rotation. Key guys like Mounga, Drummond, Whitelock, Bird etc might get time off which will put a dent in their scoring. Just gotta keep an eye on things.

I've got money on them for the season and to hold the shield all the way through (2 different bets). They opened up about $1.87 each and I've been putting more and more down each week. Last I checked they were into about $1.45 which is still great money! I think both are almost sure things although I like the end of season bet more cause they can afford to slip up during the season and still win that whereas anyone loss with the shield on the line will mean that bet goes down!

Swans to win this weekend at whatever price you can get. They're shoe ins.

Im just tossing this idea around in my head for tonights game but the more I look at the numbers the more it makes sense.

2 form teams clash tonight: Northland at home to Harbour.

Of 8 games these 2 have played this season 6 have gone under the current total.

Both games played by Northland at home have gone under.

I also think this game will be a high quality game, in particular with good hard rushing D. I reckon the under is the play, but I'm not a big under over guy so I'll just be having a relatively small play on this.

Under 57.5 @ $1.87

Oh and for a couple fun bets - don't bet the house:

If you are betting on the NZTAB have a look at the 'game pack' (to score first/over under/points start)

In a close game where you think you have a good read on the total odds are always good to take one team to score first and the other to cover the spread. I.e.

take both of
Harbour/under 57.5/Northland +4.5 @ $8.5
Northland/under 57.5/Harbour -4.5 @ $8.5

Mainly for those who want a bit of entertainment more that anything as its a bit of luck! But I do think odds are over.

Another one for the fun books:

Lewis Ormond first try scorer @ $21

This kid is a very good player and has been a standout in a poor Southland team. Great attacker and IMO is overs due to Southland being so average. But it only take a bit of luck for a team to cross the line first despite being such big outsiders. Southland was tied with Canterbury at half time last week after all.

Worth a crack to make the first 5 min of that game interesting! Otherwise that's a game to stay well away from!!

Team list are out for Taranaki vs BOP.

Probably my only decent wager for this round after Canterbury last night.

Home game, and only change from the team that beat Auckland last week is a hugely influential one with Ngatai named to start at 12.

BOP overvalued after beating Manawatu last week - but I think Manawatu are a shadow of their former selves so I don't put much weight on that win. Otherwise the only win BOP have had was v HB who are probably the worst or second worst team in the comp.

On the other hand Taranaki have beaten Waikato, Counties, and Auckland and their only loss was to a full strength Wellington side away from home.

There is a class difference in these two teams and IMO Taranaki are on the improve.

Taranaki to win 13+ @ $1.87

By the way, I don't tend to say how much I am betting on these, but sometimes give units as an indication. 1 unit could be $10 or $1000 depending on how you bet.

Anyway, this bet for me is 9 units, the earlier bet on the over under is 2 units, the game packs 1 unit, and the first try scorer .5 units.

Just to give some idea of how Im weighting my bets at least! Wouldn't want anyone to be slamming big money on those earlier bets that's all

Good work R&T. Im listening/reading. Just a busy few days on hols.

Revraiser wrote:Good work R&T. Im listening/reading. Just a busy few days on hols.

Cheers mate. Hope you got on tonights game, its looking pretty good so far.

Betting aside though, this game is a cracker. The two surprise packages of the season going head to head. Its a fantastic game. Big D, and high quality rugby!

Edit: Easy win on the Under, final score 31 - 22. A ton of points in the last 10 but the under was never in doubt.

An intercept try right at the death cost us the $8.5 shot unfortunately, but still solid profit on the under!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Cheers mate. Hope you got on tonights game, its looking pretty good so far.

Betting aside though, this game is a cracker. The two surprise packages of the season going head to head. Its a fantastic game. Big D, and high quality rugby!

I did get on, wasnt able to watch as spent the day in the city. But as the Mrs was in one of a cavalcade of cosmetic shops I placed a wager on the under 57.5 and was able to follow it on the way home. Got it at 2.35 as the agency offers up 50 or 100% odds increases most weeks.
Some late points in the game but always looked safe. And I never bet unders, whether it be union or league or football, it just doesnt sit well usually. Hehe.. cheers mate.

I'm on Taranaki 13+ cheers champion!