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Rippin and Tearin wrote:OK guys, here's an attempt to resurrect this thread and actually post something with content.
The All Blacks continue to be way over-valued. In meaningful tests this year the ABs have covered the spread only once out of 6 games. I think the ABs are no-where as good as the bookies are pricing them at these days.
This dates back to the Lions series where they only won 1 out r 3 games and I think was typified 3 weeks ago OZ probably should have beaten them and would have paid $10. Last week the spread was ~30 and while they won by 17 if Argentina had more with in their own abilities (and Im talking about when the ABs were down to 14 players) I reckon Argentina could have at least pushed the ABs to the last 5 min if not actually won the whole thing.
So here's why the ABs are struggling so much. 1) they are still being priced as the team that was so dominant over the last 8 years, but they aren't the same team. They are without McCaw, Carter, Nonu, & C Smith to name a few. 2) they have key injury problems of their own, Owen Franks and now Moody are both out (these guys, in particular Franks play a massive role in the ABs), they are also missing Ben Smith. 3) The replacements for said players don't fill the gaps left by them. In particular Sam Cane/Ardie Savea are far from McCaw. B Barrett is IMO still not that great as a starting 10 at international level. Damian MacKenzie, while he is awesome at Super Rugby level is getting completely shown up at test level. Dane Coles is still a mile away from his best post a very long injury lay-off.
Take SA plus the points, tease it up to the low 20s and you should be pretty safe!
Its hard to do, pull the trigger. If I get on then the AB'S will smahs them im certain.
