The Betting Thread

For anyone who followed my Northland tip I suggest placing a small hedge to cover and ensure break even with Otago currently paying $6.5 at half time. The game is much closer than the scoreline suggests and I think it would be prudent to cover here.

I have Northland H2H into Taranaki H2H into Cant -19 ($4.37) on a bonus bet, so not worth hedging

No Worries wrote:I have Northland H2H into Taranaki H2H into Cant -19 ($4.37) on a bonus bet, so not worth hedging

Yeah fair enough.

Got a bit tight but northland won. Great start to the weekends betting!

Update: Teams out for Taranaki Tasman. Not sure I see any value in this game. I reckon the bookies have this about right. I might still have a small play on Taranaki H2H who I think should win but more for entertainments sake than money making.

I will likely have another small play on the under. Same kind of rationale to the under I tipped that came through on the Northland NH game. Basically we are looking at a tough game, played at night, between two top teams that need to win. I think we will see a game which is more structured, with tougher D than the majority of games these two teams have played this year (which by the way have almost all been during the day). Hold off on this bet till later tonight if you are going to follow though as the trend seems to be people betting on the over so the total may drift which would be good for us!

As expected the total has increased so I'm taking under 62 Taranaki Tasman

Red card Tasman after 25min. Pretty much guarantees Taranaki win and cover the spread but the under will be a stretch now. I'd anticipate a score of something like 54 - 12

Not quite, but enough to blow the unders.

Now I just need Canterbury to rack up the points to stick it the man and profit from a bonus bet.




I'm thinking of sinking earlier winnings on Storm 13+ - just think Cowboys have busted the poofer valve in getting here and an 8-12 lead by the storm will open the gates.

No Worries wrote:Cowboys are juicy odds. Do I want to back them because:

a. Fuck those are some juicy odds
b. May be they can cause the upset, they've been underrated since JT went down
c. Nostalgia
d. Fuck those are some juicy odds

Some belated love here

5 team acca for this weekend

Jaguars -3
Titans -1.5
Falcons -8
Vikings -3
Eagles +2.5

not sure how we (LA Chargers) are favourites at 0-3 against the Eagles

No Worries wrote:Not quite, but enough to blow the unders.

Now I just need Canterbury to rack up the points to stick it the man and profit from a bonus bet.




I'm thinking of sinking earlier winnings on  Storm 13+ - just think Cowboys have busted the poofer valve in getting here and an 8-12 lead by the storm will open the gates.

Yeah man, bit unlucky on this one, Tasman played 60 min of the game with 14 players & 10 min with 13 players. Im surprised there was only 66 points in the end. This is the trouble with over under in Rugby - you can only apply so much logic but inevitably luck comes into it more than just betting H2H.

Welshy wrote:5 team acca for this weekend

Jaguars -3
Titans -1.5
Falcons -8
Vikings -3
Eagles +2.5

not sure how we (LA Chargers) are favourites at 0-3 against the Eagles

How are the vikings favourites over Lions? If the refs didnt balls up last week, theyd be 3-0.

ryno_ wrote:

How are the vikings favourites over Lions? If the refs didnt balls up last week, theyd be 3-0.

I love the Vikes at home, Bradford was supposed to be back but has been ruled out, will drop that game and add a pats straight win

I just have this feeling Kufusi is gonna score a try.. I dunno why but I just feel it

I'm not sure if any of you bet on the EPL but Sergio Aguero is out for City and it's affected the market in England and Chelsea are still paying $2.50 here in Australia

Dunno if this helps anyone or not just passing info on

Mighty Fishes wrote:I'm not sure if any of you bet on the EPL but Sergio Aguero is out for City and it's affected the market in England and Chelsea are still paying $2.50 here in Australia

Dunno if this helps anyone or not just passing info on

Thanks for posting mate. This is the sort of thing I often bet based on - bookies that are too slow in catching on to news - but in this case I don't see any value here.

I use oddschecker.com to get a range of odds from different bookies for events outside of NZ and OZ.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-man-city/winner

The above link suggests value on Chelsea IMO would be anything $2.75 and above. I.e. 10% above the average odds.

By the way, Im sticking to my top 3 bets of the week as posted earlier: Northland, Taranaki, and Canterbury. But I think its worth placing a small wager on Southland +20.5 @ $1.5 (or even 14.5 @ 1.85 if you are felling brave). I just think they are a bit undervalued despite clearly being the worst team in the league. Manawatu have a few injuries while Southland is full strength. On top of that Southland are at home where they generally tend to play with a decent amount of character. Im not convinced by Manawatu at all this year so perhaps a bit of value on Southland today!

Canterbury have named a full strength side by the way - get on I reckon!!

@Moose where are these bets for the AFL and NRL bro? Keen to see how you go and may even follow if the odds I can get are worth it!

Slater/Sloane
Slater/Dusty
Cronk/Dusty
Cronk/Sloane
$25 on each, they vary between $620 and $1400

First goal
Jenkins $50 - $11

HT/FT Richmond-Crows
$100 - $6.50

Good luck mate

Following u on the doubles. Must have got decent odds cause max pay is $1,600

Rippin and Tearin wrote:@Moose where are these bets for the AFL and NRL bro? Keen to see how you go and may even follow if the odds I can get are worth it!

Pre game I went $500 on Sloane/Richmond win and Dusty/Richmond win. Missed first half due to EOM so missed out on getting a good feel of the game early on.