NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

Wallace (priced at 29) is one I'm very intrigued by. In his career starts while playing over 30 minutes, he averages 39.6. Increase that to 40+ minutes and he averages 41.8.

Just to check if age is taking it's toll, I averaged his averages from 2020, 2021, and 2022.

30+ minutes: 37
40+ minutes: 42.2

Plenty of upside there, and given he's one of the more experienced middle forwards at the Dolphins I'd expect a fairly significant role for the big man. Ideally we want him playing 40+ minutes, but I really can't see him playing less than 30 minutes ever, so probably likely to be somewhere between 37 and 42.

Worst case: 8 points of value
Probable case: 10 points of value
Best case: 13 points of value

mattnz wrote:

Yeah, CTR is a bit of  wasteland at the moment if none of these young guys get a shot.

If Grahame gets the left CTR position, I could almost be tempted to go there, as you need to select someone and should have some upside on the preferred attacking edge.

Otherwise, the guys that are basement price with job certainty, are at that price because they score so badly in fantasy - Talau, Naden

Will see how final teams shake up, currently have 2 x $230k hopefuls, with $265k bank to fix it at TLT in my latest draft.

Yeah, there could be injuries in the next six weeks that bring base price guys in, so you'll probably be ok with that structure even if it's not the actual names you have in at the moment.

The Bludger#2 wrote:Anyone else interested in Welch at $638k.
Priced at 44, average 41.
Anyone think Welch capitalise on the bump in ol scores?
I'm considering him as my premium middle - instead of AEliott

Minutes of 40+ in 2020 (47.3) and 2021 (45.7). Not enough value there for mine.

Snatchpato wrote:
Minutes of 40+ in 2020 (47.3) and 2021 (45.7). Not enough value there for mine.

Cheers.
Might look further into your Wallace pick.

Any Sea Eagles fans with some insight into how Seibold will structure their forward pack?
Kapow (48 mins) and DWalker (50 mins) leaving must mean there's minutes in the middle for someone, and the 14 jersey up for grabs.

Jurbo - 80
Alolai - 40
Keppie - 40
Paseka - 40
Sipley - 25

Boyle? or Tuitavake? or do we think one of the more experienced middles push up to 50 mins?

Is Karl Lawton anywhere in the mix for DWalker's place?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Be interesting to see how Talau bounces back from injury but at this stage is my starting centre. Should be good for 30 odd average

Same mate he’s one of my starting centres currently too. If he can avg about 29-30 I’m happy.

Snatchpato wrote:Wallace (priced at 29) is one I'm very intrigued by. In his career starts while playing over 30 minutes, he averages 39.6. Increase that to 40+ minutes and he averages 41.8.

Just to check if age is taking it's toll, I averaged his averages from 2020, 2021, and 2022.

30+ minutes: 37
40+ minutes: 42.2

Plenty of upside there, and given he's one of the more experienced middle forwards at the Dolphins I'd expect a fairly significant role for the big man. Ideally we want him playing 40+ minutes, but I really can't see him playing less than 30 minutes ever, so probably likely to be somewhere between 37 and 42.

Worst case: 8 points of value
Probable case: 10 points of value
Best case: 13 points of value

If starting I’m interested if he’s off the bench probs not. He avg much better starting at prop than off the interchange.

The Bludger#2 wrote:Any Sea Eagles fans with some insight into how Seibold will structure their forward pack?
Kapow (48 mins) and DWalker (50 mins) leaving must mean there's minutes in the middle for someone, and the 14 jersey up for grabs.

Jurbo - 80
Alolai - 40
Keppie - 40
Paseka - 40
Sipley - 25

Boyle? or Tuitavake? or do we think one of the more experienced middles push up to 50 mins?

Is Karl Lawton anywhere in the mix for DWalker's place?

Lawton injured until round 4. He seems ideal for that injection off the bench when available.

In this interview Siebold says Paseka could potentially be one of the best front rowers in the game, sounds like he will get a chance to prove himself with bigger minutes
https://youtu.be/4OgFiJePsRw?t=1619

The Bludger#2 wrote:Anyone else interested in Welch at $638k.
Priced at 44, average 41.
Anyone think Welch capitalise on the bump in ol scores?
I'm considering him as my premium middle - instead of AEliott

If he had been priced properly (average of 41 and discounted for only playing one game), then I would have him locked in.

The Bludger#2 wrote:Anyone else interested in Welch at $638k.
Priced at 44, average 41.
Anyone think Welch capitalise on the bump in ol scores?
I'm considering him as my premium middle - instead of AEliott

Coming off a serious injury he is firmly a wait and see for me. At his peak I think he is right up there with the best props in the world but not sure his game really translates to fantasy

Bethany_B wrote:

If he had been priced properly (average of 41 and discounted for only playing one game), then I would have him locked in.

Typical NRL, nerfing a perfectly good Middle option.
It's a shame because Welch is one of the good guys who I enjoy cheering.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Typical NRL, nerfing a perfectly good Middle option.
It's a shame because Welch is one of the good guys who I enjoy cheering.

Union delegate nerf

every draft I do I end up with far too many 230k or 250k players, its a very fine balancing act.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:every draft I do I end up with far too many 230k or 250k players, its a very fine balancing act.

As long as they have decent roles and should score well, you want all of the $230k - $250k cows.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:every draft I do I end up with far too many 230k or 250k players, its a very fine balancing act.

cows and guns isn’t a bad way to start a draft at all

mattnz wrote:

As long as they have decent roles and should score well, you want all of the $230k - $250k cows.

which ones do we think are best at the mo,

doorey, george jennings, and sloan are the only ones with guaranteed roles at the mo

alamoti, isiah katoa, moale, sadrugu, te whare, stone, howarth, luke, blore, trbojevic, nikorima, Haas, AKP, perham etc all seem up for grabs?

I guess i just wait for trials and TLT but i am mighty impatient

Think all this tinkering is paying off pretty happy with this team.

Clark
Yeo cotter Tino
Garner hopgood
Boyd Hastings
Alamonti talau
Ponga Walsh To'o

Wallace foran cheese katoa

4x nuffie

Can't see the massive upsude in Boyd unless he's bulk kicking? Is he going to be the main guy?

Last few games sample is nice but its small

mattnz wrote:

As long as they have decent roles and should score well, you want all of the $230k - $250k cows.

Very few do have decent roles, even fewer will score well. Of course you want all the cows that - given hindsight - have made big money, but you absolutely don't want dead spots that force desperate trades, or ten-point wingers that you have to play.

This could actually be the year of the Subgun...