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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:34 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    Burton is such a hard one for me. Averaged 41.1 in his first 8 games (0 tries), 63.5 in his next 8 games (3 tries) and 46.1 in his last 8 games (3 tries). Interested on your thoughts on him, are you backing the Bulldogs to click?

    I think the Bulldogs will click better than they did last year, put it like that. Ciraldo might have more of an idea how to get the best out of Burton, Kikau should give him both more space and more assists, the team should score more tries which means more goals etc. Bulldogs draw is ok too... not amazing but not the horror show they had to start last year.

    Nothing about this is guaranteed, but optimistic head says there's the *possibility* of Burton getting close to Hynes/Cleary levels.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:35 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Milne is suspended for round 1 and no guarantees that he starts round 2.

    It was a mistype. I meant Talau. Have no idea why I wrote Milne...
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:40 pm

    Anything saying I shouldnt be so high on Doueihi?

    His 5/8th scoring average at 62 points, priced at 51?
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:43 pm

    The guy that I think everyone is overlooking is Tohu Harris.

    Averaged 66 in games > 60 minutes at lock in 2021 and 60 across all positions in 2020 (69 average at lock).

    Was reappointed as club captain yesterday, with the new coach really happy with him in training.

    2nd year back from ACL, can easily be the top scoring MID in the comp, for over $200k less than Murray.

    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:48 pm

    Welshy wrote:Anything saying I shouldnt be so high on Doueihi?

    His 5/8th scoring average at 62 points, priced at 51?

    I'm not as high on Doueihi as others seem to be. For one thing, Cleary, Burton and Hastings exist. For another all the noises from Wests suggest it's Brooks's team - in practice Doueihi will probably ballhog and rack up points, but maybe not as many as you expect. Also, the Tigers pack is very good now but their backline is horrible, so he could easily get shifted to the centres, and even if he doesn't they're unlikely to be piling on scores.

    Not saying he's a bad pick, just think Burton is better for less $$$s.
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:50 pm

    Welshy wrote:Anything saying I shouldnt be so high on Doueihi?

    His 5/8th scoring average at 62 points, priced at 51?

    Yeah, I have him, way more confident about him than a guy like Burton (who is really inconsistent) in that price range. When at 6 he owns that team, has an unbelieveable kicking game that has been heavily under-utilised (can't see that continuing with a new coach). When the team needs someone to step up, he is that guy. Madge somehow didn't recognise what he had and kept playing him out of position.

    He has both a kicking game and running game that are as good as any halves in the comp.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:51 pm

    mattnz wrote:The guy that I think everyone is overlooking is Tohu Harris.

    Averaged 66 in games > 60 minutes at lock in 2021 and 60 across all positions in 2020 (69 average at lock).

    Was reappointed as club captain yesterday, with the new coach really happy with him in training.

    2nd year back from ACL, can easily be the top scoring MID in the comp, for over $200k less than Murray.


    He was getting 80 minutes pretty much every week in 2020 and 2021. He's obviously underpriced if that's his role again, but are you really confident it will be?
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    Post by mattnz Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:01 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    He was getting 80 minutes pretty much every week in 2020 and 2021. He's obviously underpriced if that's his role again, but are you really confident it will be?

    They haven't appointed a co-captain. He will be back to full fitness. No reason that he wouldn't play 80 most weeks. Saves 2 substitutions they can use elsewhere.

    The coach has come from Penrith where they used Yeo in a similar role.

    He is more than likely going to be a top 4 MID who won't play Origin that you can leave in your team all year, available at a heavy discount.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:07 am

    mattnz wrote:

    They haven't appointed a co-captain. He will be back to full fitness. No reason that he wouldn't play 80 most weeks. Saves 2 substitutions they can use elsewhere.

    The coach has come from Penrith where they used Yeo in a similar role.

    He is more than likely going to be a top 4 MID who won't play Origin that you can leave in your team all year, available at a heavy discount.

    I'd absolutely agree with your last paragraph if I actually thought he was going to play 80, but AFB, Barnett, Curran, Niukore, Jazz all in the minutes mixer.

    The top MIDs who are also non-Origin who are getting no attention on here are Tapine and iPap. iPap is probably too expensive to start the year, but there's a touch of value in Tapine with Elliott gone and JPap winding down.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:10 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    I'm not as high on Doueihi as others seem to be. For one thing, Cleary, Burton and Hastings exist. For another all the noises from Wests suggest it's Brooks's team - in practice Doueihi will probably ballhog and rack up points, but maybe not as many as you expect. Also, the Tigers pack is very good now but their backline is horrible, so he could easily get shifted to the centres, and even if he doesn't they're unlikely to be piling on scores.

    Not saying he's a bad pick, just think Burton is better for less $$$s.

    I don't get the comparison to Cleary, that's a bit obvious plus he would be used alongside him

    Burtons career average playing 5/8 is 8 points less than Doueihi? and Hastings going to be playing alongside Ponga, how dominant is he going to be?

    Not like Doohickey racks up huge KM totals either, which makes his 5/8 average even more impressive (61.6 average, 22 games)
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:16 am

    Welshy wrote:

    I don't get the comparison to Cleary, that's a bit obvious plus he would be used alongside him

    Burtons career average playing 5/8 is 8 points less than Doueihi? and Hastings going to be playing alongside Ponga, how dominant is he going to be?



    It wasn't a comparison with Cleary, just a point that I have three expensive halves at the moment who I think - for one reason or another - are better options, so can't fit in another. If he had WFB or CTR DPP it would be a different conversation.

    I'm not fully sold on Hastings either, but he's a lot cheaper than Doueihi.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:16 am

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    Yasssss!  cheer Well that only leaves one all important question- Tuilagi Train,  Tuilagi Party, or Tuilagimardigras? Dance

    Tui - lager lager lager lager:

    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:23 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    It wasn't a comparison with Cleary, just a point that I have three expensive halves at the moment who I think - for one reason or another - are better options, so can't fit in another. If he had WFB or CTR DPP it would be a different conversation.

    I'm not fully sold on Hastings either, but he's a lot cheaper than Doueihi.

    Ive got Doueihi over Burton, fair difference in averages in similar roles.

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    Post by Pookus McFly Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:27 am

    mattnz wrote:The guy that I think everyone is overlooking is Tohu Harris.

    Averaged 66 in games > 60 minutes at lock in 2021 and 60 across all positions in 2020 (69 average at lock).

    Was reappointed as club captain yesterday, with the new coach really happy with him in training.

    2nd year back from ACL, can easily be the top scoring MID in the comp, for over $200k less than Murray.


    Tohu is 31 now, I am not sure he will ever get back to those fantasy numbers. But what I forsee, is that you buy him priced at 48, and he scores 48-54, which are gun scores so you never find an excuse to trade him, but whilst you might find 4 points of value on a season keeper, I would rather back Carrigan to average 55+ for just 30k more.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:31 am

    Welshy wrote:

    Ive got Doueihi over Burton, fair difference in averages in similar roles.


    Ignoring first couple of months of last year, Burton better player in (this year) better team imo. Also expect him to be more dominant over Flanagan than Doueihi wil be over Brooks. Game of opinions though...
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    Post by Welshy Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:40 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Ignoring first couple of months of last year, Burton better player in (this year) better team imo. Also expect him to be more dominant over Flanagan than Doueihi wil be over Brooks. Game of opinions though...

    Burton essentially had an absolutely massive middle season sandwiched between an average-poor start and end. So the average seems legit, considering his BIG KM totals, his other base bits are pretty mediocre.

    Are you just gut banking on him having a better year in a better team?

    Doueihi has same average with Brooks. 61

    All opinions obviously, but Doueihi already has the stats to back up his 5/8 average. Based on legacy 5/8th average he is currently 10/11 points underpriced.

    Burton looks fairly priced, or are you expecting a 10 point increase?
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:49 am

    Welshy wrote:

    Burton essentially had an absolutely massive middle season sandwiched between an average-poor start and end. So the average seems legit, considering his BIG KM totals, his other base bits are pretty mediocre.

    Are you just gut banking on him having a better year in a better team?

    Doueihi has same average with Brooks. 61

    All opinions obviously, but Doueihi already has the stats to back up his 5/8 average. Based on legacy 5/8th average he is currently 10/11 points underpriced.

    Burton looks fairly priced, or are you expecting a 10 point increase?

    I think there's more likely to be a ten-point increase with Burton than with Doueihi. It would be dull if we all had the same team...
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    Post by Welshy Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:58 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    I think there's more likely to be a ten-point increase with Burton than with Doueihi. It would be dull if we all had the same team...

    My point is there doesn't have to be a 10 point increase from Doohickey, he is currently 10+ points UNDERVALUED based on his 5/8 average (62)

    Priced @ 51
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    Post by rhinoceroo Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:14 am

    Welshy wrote:

    My point is there doesn't have to be a 10 point increase from Doohickey, he is currently 10+ points UNDERVALUED based on his 5/8 average (62)

    Priced @ 51

    He's priced at 54?
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    Post by Welshy Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:20 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    He's priced at 54?

    Sorry, it's 52 isn't it?

    14900 magic number?

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