NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

my tv broke wrote:

I'm just going to be lazy and ask (rather than look) - what's the initial MN ?

14491

Bethany_B wrote:

Odds are there will be another bench utility to spell Verrills (they did sign Chris Randall from the Knights), there is almost no chance Clark plays hooker if there's another utility in the team. Holbrook himself said that Clark's move to lock was permanent and he only moved him back to hooker at the end of last year because Booth got injured and they had nobody else left.

55ish mins at lock is what is most likely for Clark, in which case he likely averages in the mid to high 50s (his PPM when playing middle only is 1.04)

Camo123 wrote:
Waiting for L-Jimmy to comment about small sample size.

Where are you getting 1.04PPM from, his 3 games at lock + game at interchange in R18-21 (when Booth started) last year are at 0.93PPM (in 4 game sample, which is not really useful)

So much love here. Nicely done camo

For my money the real criticism is below:

mickspicks wrote:


So Tits 8-17 should be

Tino
Verills
MoFo
DFifi
Fermor
Clark

Randall/Campbell Jolliffe Liu Stimson

Big mins there for the starters.

I mean, Liu is a premership quality forward and Jolliffe is one of the very finest international forwards in a near-legendary Ireland team.

Also the coach'll get fired soon, so forward rotations are perfectly unknowable.

Doohickey from WT has been reporting that EVERY player is being required to practice 200 passes a training session……

If passing translates into real life game time I’m expecting a 5-20 point decrease in his fantasy scores

L-Jimmy wrote:


So much love here. Nicely done camo

For my money the real criticism is below:



I mean, Liu is a premership quality forward and Jolliffe is one of the very finest international forwards in a near-legendary Ireland team.

Also the coach'll get fired soon, so forward rotations are perfectly unknowable.

I think the last part is the most important. Holbrook still hasn't confirmed a spine for 2-3 years and continues with woeful rotations and game plans. Surprised he didn't get the sack in the off-season.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Reece Walsh in a moron boot on his right leg, seen via instagram

FTFY

Who knows how to wake @Chewie up for the first Page 51 Party of the year?

Milchcow wrote:
Any love for Christian Welch

Priced at 44, he averaged 45 back in 2021, but that was with the old offload scoring, and he's a handy offloader (pun intended)

Probably no big increase in minutes, but with the losses to the Storm forward pack I can't see him going backwards.

Probably not quite enough upside to be useful, and is a little awkwardly priced, but he is on the shortlist.

If he had been priced properly (41 average and discount from only playing one game), then he would be a no-brainer but Failhub has ruined him by overpricing him.

Genderbender wrote:Doohickey from WT has been reporting that EVERY player is being required to practice 200 passes a training session……

If passing translates into real life game time I’m expecting a 5-20 point decrease in his fantasy scores

To be fair, Doohickey needs the practice!

Bethany_B wrote:

If he had been priced properly (41 average and discount from only playing one game), then he would be a no-brainer but Failhub has ruined him by overpricing him.

IMO Its actually better that players get priced appropriately. If they gave big discounts to all these guys who only played a game or 2 than they'd just be in everyone's squads and we'd be effectively starting with 16 players, rather than 21

JBrailey... impacted by Mann? Or will Mann play a bit of lock (Elliot 60-odd) and JBrailey goes for 80?

mickspicks wrote:JBrailey... impacted by Mann? Or will Mann play a bit of lock (Elliot 60-odd) and JBrailey goes for 80?

Assumption would be 80 with mann in the middle/injury cover

mintotheimmortal wrote:

Assumption would be 80 with mann in the middle/injury cover

That would be... highly interesting

mickspicks wrote:

That would be... highly interesting

based on the fact he played 80 practically as soon as he was back from injury and they were happy to get rid of Randall

Which combo is better?

A: Haas + CNK (or another cheapie in the low 400s - high 300s)

B: Horsburgh + Val Holmes

Bethany_B wrote:Which combo is better?

A: Haas + CNK (or another cheapie in the low 400s - high 300s)

B: Horsburgh + Val Holmes

Haas is a proven gun, CNK should be a cash cow.

Horsburgh may get the lock role and may get 50 mins. Holmes is a 600k+ ctr.

Milchcow wrote:

Not sure why you'd single out Talau out of that back 5. They are all a bit average. Its pretty much everyone else's back 5 too, but just because everyone is doing it doesn't make it good.

Because Talau has scored sub 10 5 times in 80 minutes, notably including 2 zeros and a 1.

Not saying he's a bad buy, he'll probably make decent money, but including him in your scoring 17 might be asking for trouble.

Snatchpato wrote:
Because Talau has scored sub 10 5 times in 80 minutes, notably including 2 zeros and a 1.

Not saying he's a bad buy, he'll probably make decent money, but including him in your scoring 17 might be asking for trouble.

If you ignore those, he has a solid 30+ average
So very possible for him to put together 4 or so good scores in a row, and then move him on for cash (hopefully this run times well with byes, and isn't preceded by a -2 to limit the profit)

I'm betting on the fact that he is now older and more experienced, plus the tigers being in theory a better team this year, means that the absolute garbage will occur less frequently


HTF is somewhat similar. Very low base with some monster scores possible, so just have to hope he gets a good run of scores when you need him, and try to time it right when you move him on.

Snatchpato wrote:
Because Talau has scored sub 10 5 times in 80 minutes, notably including 2 zeros and a 1.

Not saying he's a bad buy, he'll probably make decent money, but including him in your scoring 17 might be asking for trouble.

This is one reason why I was considering Horse + Val, means that I'm not stuck playing Talau every week and I think Horsburgh can get close enough to Haas to warrant owning him (Haas best case averages 70ish, more likely 60-65 while Horse best case averages 55 and more likely 48-52).

This is predicated on Horse starting though.

Bethany_B wrote:

This is one reason why I was considering Horse + Val, means that I'm not stuck playing Talau every week and I think Horsburgh can get close enough to Haas to warrant owning him (Haas best case averages 70ish, more likely 60-65 while Horse best case averages 55 and more likely 48-52).

This is predicated on Horse starting though.

Don’t necessarily have to rely on talau.

Does anyone have Alamoti nsw cup stats? I think he has been training with the first team at left centre. Could be another option and leave talau with his dual in emgs

mintotheimmortal wrote:

Don’t necessarily have to rely on talau.

Does anyone have Alamoti nsw cup stats? I think he has been training with the first team at left centre. Could be another option and leave talau with his dual in emgs

I'm working under the assumption that Alamoti will not start, and if he does, I can swap one of my other 250k cheapies to him (Doorey most likely given that Matto could easily push him out in round 4).

Also Val's goalkicking puts him ahead of other gun centres I feel, and his early draw is really good so he'll be kicking a lot of goals. Also helps that he has no byes before Origin.