NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 3 - Trials by Combat

Welshy wrote:

Looks a GUN or 2 short to me mate

Not to me mate I have Cleary, Burton, Tapine, Cotter, Mahoney.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Not to me mate I have Cleary, Burton, Tapine, Cotter, Mahoney.

Mahoney's not a gun mate, and Cotter is borderline. My advice to you earlier would swap those two for Haas and Murray, two real guns.

Bethany_B wrote:

You're inefficiently using money on guys that aren't that good. I would make the following changes:

* Hammer down to Soni Luke and put Alamoti at starting CTR - Alamoti will score just as well if not better and you free up $122k

* CNK down to Khan-Pereira and just play HSS at WFB if you don't want to play AKP, CNK is alright but again, you're paying $142k more for not that many more points.

* Egan Butcher to Teig Wilton - Wilton is likely to start on the edge for the Sharks and actually scored alright even with Wade Graham there as long as he was starting with Wade on the bench. This frees up another $26k

Take that $290k you've just freed up ($314k bank with what you have before) and then do the following upgrades:

* Mahoney to Haas (play Cheese at HOK), this leaves you $138k and gets you a 10 point increase in scoring (Haas is fully fit and should average low 60s, Mahoney probably averages 50-52 at best)

* Cotter to Murray, Murray has a much bigger ceiling than Cotter does and is much more likely to get big enough mins, especially with Havili's injury. Also as a Souths fan you'll have more fun owning him

This leaves you with a stacked MID line while everyone else is messing around with cheapies and middies, and you aren't really giving up much to do it. Your side would look like this:

Cheese
Haas, Murray, Tapine
Wilton, Garner
Cleary, Burton
Thompson, Alamoti
Miller, Perham, HSS

Hopgood, Boyd, Loiero, Uto

Luke, Doorey, Sloan, AKP

Thanks for the feedback but I’m not running with 6 guys at 250k not in a year where we have all these byes to deal with now it means squad depth is more important than ever and having a solid 18th man. I’m trying to not run with more than 4 guys at 250k, 5 at an absolute stretch but I am not as comfortable with 5. Most of your drafts have have had 6 guys at 250k which I don’t like it’s really risky. Soni is a wait and see not even named this week likely gets 25mins initially I’m not sure it’s enough. AKP in a bad Titans teams good luck to you but no thanks he’s likely to lose his spot round 4 when a couple of those guys are back, B. Kelly will come straight back in.

I didn’t realise Egan was so pricey

He played more decent bench minutes in more games than I expected last year, has got himself into the same awkward mid-range that his brother did year after year

What a shit family

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks for the feedback but I’m not running with 6 guys at 250k not in a year where we have all these byes to deal with now it means squad depth is more important than ever and having a solid 18th man. I’m trying to not run with more than 4 guys at 250k, 5 at an absolute stretch but I am not as comfortable with 5. Most of your drafts have have had 6 guys at 250k which I don’t like it’s really risky. Soni is a wait and see not even named this week likely gets 25mins initially I’m not sure it’s enough. AKP in a bad Titans teams good luck to you but no thanks he’s likely to lose his spot round 4 when a couple of those guys are back, B. Kelly will come straight back in.

Having 6 guys at 250k is perfectly fine as long as they all get named and all bar one or two have good job security, you're limiting yourself by wasting money on 370k guys that won't score much more anyway. If you don't want to have so many 250k guys then, you could just keep one of your 370k guys and only do one of the big upgrades (going Hammer to AKP would still free up enough for you to go Mahoney to Haas and you wouldn't have to do the other two trades)

Of the 250k guys I have in my team (currently 7 of them but if I need to I have ways of upgrading 1 or 2 of them), they are as follows:

* Doorey - Likely to start on the edge for Parra, and if he doesn't, it'd probably be Momoisea who is also 250k
* Soni Luke - Tom Sangster was saying that he'll get 50-55 mins like Api was getting last year with Kenny just playing the first 20 mins
* Moale - Sele is injured as you'd know, and either Moale or Shaq Mitchell would benefit from that
* Smith-Shields - Seems like he has the wing spot until Savage is back, giving him at least 6 games (likely 7 if the Raiders hold Savage back until after their bye), he's historically scored well on the wing and will have dual position which is very nice.
* Alamoti - Seems like he'll start at centre for the Dogs and has a fantasy-friendly game
* AKP - Might be in the Titans team but he showed in the trial that he's got talent and can find the line, plus he's safe until at least round 4 when Kelly returns from suspension (but I think Sami will keep Kelly out and stay at centre)
* Warbrick - this one is a bit of hopium from me but given Gennings is injured, there's a chance he starts and he also has a fantasy-friendly game.

Those 7 guys don't include Sloan (who is almost guaranteed to start at FB for the Dragons) or Talau (who a lot of teams have), or guys like Ray Stone who are highly owned and will at least play somewhere, so I have backup options if my 7 guys don't get named.

My point here is that if going down from a 370k plodder to a 250k cheapie means you can upgrade a questionable mid tier guy to a genuine gun, you should always do it.

Bethany_B wrote:

Having 6 guys at 250k is perfectly fine as long as they all get named and all bar one or two have good job security, you're limiting yourself by wasting money on 370k guys that won't score much more anyway. If you don't want to have so many 250k guys then, you could just keep one of your 370k guys and only do one of the big upgrades (going Hammer to AKP would still free up enough for you to go Mahoney to Haas and you wouldn't have to do the other two trades)

Of the 250k guys I have in my team (currently 7 of them but if I need to I have ways of upgrading 1 or 2 of them), they are as follows:

* Doorey - Likely to start on the edge for Parra, and if he doesn't, it'd probably be Momoisea who is also 250k
* Soni Luke - Tom Sangster was saying that he'll get 50-55 mins like Api was getting last year with Kenny just playing the first 20 mins
* Moale - Sele is injured as you'd know, and either Moale or Shaq Mitchell would benefit from that
* Smith-Shields - Seems like he has the wing spot until Savage is back, giving him at least 6 games (likely 7 if the Raiders hold Savage back until after their bye), he's historically scored well on the wing and will have dual position which is very nice.
* Alamoti - Seems like he'll start at centre for the Dogs and has a fantasy-friendly game
* AKP - Might be in the Titans team but he showed in the trial that he's got talent and can find the line, plus he's safe until at least round 4 when Kelly returns from suspension (but I think Sami will keep Kelly out and stay at centre)
* Warbrick - this one is a bit of hopium from me but given Gennings is injured, there's a chance he starts and he also has a fantasy-friendly game.

Those 7 guys don't include Sloan (who is almost guaranteed to start at FB for the Dragons) or Talau (who a lot of teams have), or guys like Ray Stone who are highly owned and will at least play somewhere, so I have backup options if my 7 guys don't get named.

My point here is that if going down from a 370k plodder to a 250k cheapie means you can upgrade a questionable mid tier guy to a genuine gun, you should always do it.

The most realistic scenario of these 6 is that one of them is mildly relative for 3 weeks.

Edit- sorry didn’t see Alamoti there, he could be the exception

Bethany_B wrote:

Having 6 guys at 250k is perfectly fine as long as they all get named and all bar one or two have good job security, you're limiting yourself by wasting money on 370k guys that won't score much more anyway. If you don't want to have so many 250k guys then, you could just keep one of your 370k guys and only do one of the big upgrades (going Hammer to AKP would still free up enough for you to go Mahoney to Haas and you wouldn't have to do the other two trades)

Of the 250k guys I have in my team (currently 7 of them but if I need to I have ways of upgrading 1 or 2 of them), they are as follows:

* Doorey - Likely to start on the edge for Parra, and if he doesn't, it'd probably be Momoisea who is also 250k
* Soni Luke - Tom Sangster was saying that he'll get 50-55 mins like Api was getting last year with Kenny just playing the first 20 mins
* Moale - Sele is injured as you'd know, and either Moale or Shaq Mitchell would benefit from that
* Smith-Shields - Seems like he has the wing spot until Savage is back, giving him at least 6 games (likely 7 if the Raiders hold Savage back until after their bye), he's historically scored well on the wing and will have dual position which is very nice.
* Alamoti - Seems like he'll start at centre for the Dogs and has a fantasy-friendly game
* AKP - Might be in the Titans team but he showed in the trial that he's got talent and can find the line, plus he's safe until at least round 4 when Kelly returns from suspension (but I think Sami will keep Kelly out and stay at centre)
* Warbrick - this one is a bit of hopium from me but given Gennings is injured, there's a chance he starts and he also has a fantasy-friendly game.

Those 7 guys don't include Sloan (who is almost guaranteed to start at FB for the Dragons) or Talau (who a lot of teams have), or guys like Ray Stone who are highly owned and will at least play somewhere, so I have backup options if my 7 guys don't get named.

My point here is that if going down from a 370k plodder to a 250k cheapie means you can upgrade a questionable mid tier guy to a genuine gun, you should always do it.

Carty in the mix to take the spot from Doorey

mattnz wrote:
Carty in the mix to take the spot from Doorey

Yeah that is true, he isn't 100% without risk but I think he's good enough to keep the spot and at 250k he'll definitely make money

Bethany_B wrote:

Mahoney's not a gun mate, and Cotter is borderline. My advice to you earlier would swap those two for Haas and Murray, two real guns.

I think what he means is he has 5 players he thinks can average 50+ to start the season. Back in the day anyone who could average over 50 was considered a keeper.
Are you saying he needs at least 2 players who average 60+ which means bringing in more basement price players to 'upgrade' Cotter and Tapine

Honey Badger wrote:

I think what he means is he has 5 players he thinks can average 50+ to start the season. Back in the day anyone who could average over 50 was considered a keeper.
Are you saying he needs at least 2 players who average 60+ which means bringing in more basement price players to 'upgrade' Cotter and Tapine

No he would keep Tapine and upgrade Mahoney and Cotter (who will probably average low 50s and mid 50s respectively) to Haas and Murray (who will probably average low 60s and mid to high 60s respectively)

In total that would be a 20-25 point upgrade, more than may be lost from downgrading one CTR spot and one WFB spot

Again, he doesn't have to do both of these trades if he doesn't want to, he could easily just downgrade one of Hammer and CNK down to AKP and then still have enough cash to go Mahoney to Haas (a likely 10 point upgrade), while keeping Cotter.

If the warriors run out rd 1 with the same bench make up as this week does anyone consider Wayde Egan of considerably underrated fame.

mintotheimmortal wrote:If the warriors run out rd 1 with the same bench make up as this week does anyone consider Wayde Egan of considerably underrated fame.

I think with BSmith sitting at a similar price point it could be a hard sell.

Bethany_B wrote:

No he would keep Tapine and upgrade Mahoney and Cotter (who will probably average low 50s and mid 50s respectively) to Haas and Murray (who will probably average low 60s and mid to high 60s respectively)

In total that would be a 20-25 point upgrade, more than may be lost from downgrading one CTR spot and one WFB spot

Again, he doesn't have to do both of these trades if he doesn't want to, he could easily just downgrade one of Hammer and CNK down to AKP and then still have enough cash to go Mahoney to Haas (a likely 10 point upgrade), while keeping Cotter.

I have Cotter avg 56-58 I’m happy with him. If I can fit Haas in then I will.

I have heard otherwise Beth and that Kenny will get 50-55mins. I’m not touching Soni intially.

I’m still sceptical on AKP in a bad side too and questionable JS.

Sele is out 3 weeks touch and go for round 1. Moale ppm is just under 0.80 he would need 35mins to be relevant I don’t think he gets it intially.

I have Sloan I only wanna carry one of Warbrick or HSS.

Of the 6-7 cheapies you have if you get stuck with 2-3 it can be hard early trying to move them on whikst having other fires to put out you can fall behind quickly.

I think a better squad balance is more important this year than absolute guns and cows which is how you’re thinking.

mattnz wrote:
Carty in the mix to take the spot from Doorey

Carty broke his jaw at training a few weeks back

Soni isn’t even named this week…

Krump wrote:Soni isn’t even named this week…

Luke, edwards, sorenson and martin are all out with minor injuries and will be back for round 1 according to a journo i cant remember

Soni Luke has a minor injury (same with Margin Sorensen and Edwards) but will be ok for round 1.

I'm an idiot but I'm guessing Kenny plays the larger share of minutes early in the season ?

Krump wrote:Soni isn’t even named this week…

That makes me much more more likely to pick him. Shows the coach doesn't need to see anything.

Or that's he's not good enough. Could be either.

Edit

Or yeah, injured like Minto and MTB said.

Moanaman wrote:

Carty broke his jaw at training a few weeks back

Parramatta duo Bryce Cartwright (broken jaw) and Waqa Blake (broken arm) suffered pre-season training injuries but both are expected to be available in Round 1.