NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 3 - Trials by Combat

mattnz wrote:

He started the season slow, coming back from an injury. Rounds 8 to 12 are the best indication of the kind of big minute prop role that they are looking for from him when fully fit (58-80 minutes with scoring in the 50-71 range in that period).

man picks out the only two games he has ever played over 65 mins and that is gonna be the norm

easytiger wrote:

Carty EDG > 50 minutes average of 47

Let's break that down;
2022 EDG games (eels) = 0
2021 EDG games (eels) = 1 for 50 points
2020 EDG games (titans) = 5 for 36.6 average
2019 EDG games (titans) = 12 for 42.3 average - yay we're finally starting to get some meaningful data, but still well short of that 47 average
2018 EDG games = 0
2017 EDG games = 1 (6 points in 14 minutes)
2016 EDG games = 10 for a 50.9 average - finally something close to that projection. Sure it's only 7 seasons ago, but hey....

Moral of the story... do we really need to oversell shit?

Carty didnt play any meaningful minutes last season, but he did at the Eels in 2021 - Games > 40 minutes averaged 49 points in 53 minutes across 8 games. Still fantasy relevant, given a chance, which could be this season. Doorey, by comparison is in the Gosi class of EDG fantasy duds.

Adam Reynolds sitting out the trial this week, seems expected. Not sure why he was named.

Jock Madden playing 7.

Bethany_B wrote:
* Soni Luke - Tom Sangster was saying that he'll get 50-55 mins like Api was getting last year with Kenny just playing the first 20 mins

Just pointing out that Api averaged 70 minutes last year

Maybe this Soni Luke thing happens, but it does make me wonder;

Penrith knew throughout 2022 that Api was leaving in season 2023.
So, they played Luke in 4 games off the bench.
They played Kenny in 18 games off the bench (and as starting Hooker on 3 occasions).

In context prior to Api signing with the Tigers, Kenny got 5 games off the bench.

It just seems to me like they were actively building Kenny's experience as the likely primary hooker - Luke must've had one hell of a pre-season to become the primary with just 106 minutes of NRL experience?

Maybe that's true, and that's what happens, but it doesn't really feel very likely?

mattnz wrote:

Carty didnt play any meaningful minutes last season, but he did at the Eels in 2021 - Games > 40 minutes averaged 49 points in 53 minutes across 8 games. Still fantasy relevant, given a chance, which could be this season. Doorey, by comparison is in the Gosi class of EDG fantasy duds.

I don't dispute that he could offer value.
I just think utilising his edge stats from 7, 8, 9 years ago is probably quite misrepresentative - he's not the same player he was back then (nor is the game quite the same).

He did produce some good scores in Vlandy's-ball - he's the type of player you'd think suits those loose open big-scoring games.

Value - very likely, I'd just suggest tempering expectations around the certainty of big averages for a player like that (even if they are a possibility)...

Carty makes Darius Boyd look like Trevor Gillmeister in defense.

Really haven't had time to put in any research other than skimming this thread - any obvious picks I'm missing (or anyone I've got that I shouldn't)?

Boyd
Murray, Haas, Uto
Hopgood, Garner
Hynes, Doueihi
Staggs, Alamoti
Miller, HTF, Perham

Cheese, EButcher, Loiero, TMM
Stone, Doorey, Talau, Sloan

SoylentGreen wrote:Really haven't had time to put in any research other than skimming this thread - any obvious picks I'm missing (or anyone I've got that I shouldn't)?

Boyd
Murray, Haas, Uto
Hopgood, Garner
Hynes, Doueihi
Staggs, Alamoti
Miller, HTF, Perham

Cheese, EButcher, Loiero, TMM
Stone, Doorey, Talau, Sloan

I would probably downgrade Hammer to Harley Smith-Shields (currently CTR only but should get dual before round 1 since he'd be playing on the wing if at all), his record on the wing is pretty decent and he'd have a good 6 games before Savage forces him out. Then take that $122k and upgrade Uto to someone better (idk how much bank you have before trades but assuming it's not much you could go Ryan Sutton if he starts at lock in rd1), or alternatively Staggs to Val Holmes.

I don't think Hammer is that good at FB in a fantasy sense, he'll average low 30s and not make that much money (priced at 26 so would have to average 36 to be worth having as a cheapie), and you're paying $122k more for him compared to a 250k guy like HSS or a 230k guy like AKP.

That said, if you're set on Hammer the side is pretty good as is.

I am in Rabs corner, whilst you still need ya guns I think squad depth is more important this year and a few punters are going to be playing catch up, its easier to drop a failed mid pricer down than to have to scratch around finding dough, in the end we are all just a HIA away from a bad round, my current squad only has Cook, Cleary and Beans as my guns but is quite balance IMHO, still a few injuries in the trials to come yet. I am relying on Hopegood, Thompson and Suaalii getting DPP.

easytiger wrote:

Cotter's first 10 games last year (prior to Origin/injury) produced a 55.7 average - I'm guessing it's based mostly around that?

Correct mate and I think he will avg 61-62mins first 10-12 rounds and go close to a ppm.

Bethany_B wrote:

Mahoney's not a gun mate, and Cotter is borderline. My advice to you earlier would swap those two for Haas and Murray, two real guns.

Haas is a gun for sure but aren't you concerned he won't be playing his big ass minutes anymore? He is playing 60 for bronies this year. Maybe that means even greater potential but it's something to consider.

No one talking about Dragons players because of the bye Round 1.

JDB sitting high on my radar. With the Dragons bench he looks set for 80 and with another season under his belt post-scandal is prime. Lawrie also a thought.

mickspicks wrote:

Haas is a gun for sure but aren't you concerned he won't be playing his big ass minutes anymore? He is playing 60 for bronies this year. Maybe that means even greater potential but it's something to consider.

He averaged 70 before his shoulder injury last year, I have no concerns about his output as long as he is fit, plus Kobe Hetherington's injury should mean he gets closer to 65-70 early in the year.

mickspicks wrote:No one talking about Dragons players because of the bye Round 1.

JDB sitting high on my radar. With the Dragons bench he looks set for 80 and with another season under his belt post-scandal is prime. Lawrie also a thought.

The only Dragons player I'm remotely interested in aside from cheapies is Bird (if in the forward pack) and maybe Lomax (would have to see him play before I commit).

Their bye schedule is very nice after round 1, no byes from round 2-15

mickspicks wrote:

Haas is a gun for sure but aren't you concerned he won't be playing his big ass minutes anymore? He is playing 60 for bronies this year. Maybe that means even greater potential but it's something to consider.

I think his time we be monitored and controlled like after his injury. Not based on any specific evidence and probably more so mid year when Hetherington returns but with Carrigan playing big as lock then Jensen, Haas, Flegler, Taupau and Palasia rotating through the front row I don’t see Haas as the ‘gun’ he once was (Palasia also doing some edge work if required but should be minimal with Riki and Capewell).

mickspicks wrote:No one talking about Dragons players because of the bye Round 1.

JDB sitting high on my radar. With the Dragons bench he looks set for 80 and with another season under his belt post-scandal is prime. Lawrie also a thought.

Don’t think it’s the byes buddy, probably more that in terms of fantasy relevancy the dragons are poo.

How many people aere picking the cheaper Tapine to save money ?

No Worries wrote:How many people aere picking the cheaper Tapine to save money ?

I have all three of him, Murray and Haas

Maestro wrote:

I think his time we be monitored and controlled like after his injury. Not based on any specific evidence and probably more so mid year when Hetherington returns but with Carrigan playing big as lock then Jensen, Haas, Flegler, Taupau and Palasia rotating through the front row I don’t see Haas as the ‘gun’ he once was (Palasia also doing some edge work if required but should be minimal with Riki and Capewell).

100% this. He will still have a great output but can see them not smashing him every week anymore

Genderbender wrote:


Don’t think it’s the byes buddy, probably more that in terms of fantasy relevancy the dragons are poo.

Yes but some value in their forward pack I think. But would be POD picks.