NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 3 - Trials by Combat

Mulvy wrote:

Oh really? Don't mind me then.

That’s what I heard, unless there has been a more recent update

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

Might be available round 1

Thank you

So, for everyone running with 6 or 7 minimum price players, RL Fantasy Pro (I hate to give Butters credit but here we go) has a Team Analysis tool where you can look at every team's week-by-week and is currently showing last season's data.

I know value crops up in different places and positions from year to year, but giving a quick look at the top five teams last year and their Round One teams, a couple of things stood out:

1) Very few base price players, between 2 and 4

2) Everyone went heavy on WFB (Papy, Hynes and Teddy for the most part)

rhinoceroo wrote:So, for everyone running with 6 or 7 minimum price players, RL Fantasy Pro (I hate to give Butters credit but here we go) has a Team Analysis tool where you can look at every team's week-by-week and is currently showing last season's data.

I know value crops up in different places and positions from year to year, but giving a quick look at the top five teams last year and their Round One teams, a couple of things stood out:

1) Very few base price players, between 2 and 4

2) Everyone went heavy on WFB (Papy, Hynes and Teddy for the most part)

Hynes as a WFB was a steal!

And if I remember papy was super underpriced

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

Hynes as a WFB was a steal!

And if I remember papy was super underpriced

True. That's where the value was. But Hynes/Papy/Teddy is *very* different to people's selections at WFB this year. Entirely possible we could be sat here in 2024 thinking about what steals Ponga and TTurbo were at the start of this year.

It was more the lack of min-price picks that was interesting. Anyone who went, for example, Ming/Schneider/Vailea/AFifita/WSmith was instantly behind anyone who just went Ming & Schneider, even if they squeezed another Subgun out of it. And not necessarily behind because of scores, but behind in a way that could take half a season to fix in terms of trades and cash gen and narrowing options.

rhinoceroo wrote:

True. That's where the value was. But Hynes/Papy/Teddy is *very* different to people's selections at WFB this year. Entirely possible we could be sat here in 2024 thinking about what steals Ponga and TTurbo were at the start of this year.

It was more the lack of min-price picks that was interesting. Anyone who went, for example, Ming/Schneider/Vailea/AFifita/WSmith was instantly behind anyone who just went Ming & Schneider, even if they squeezed another Subgun out of it. And not necessarily behind because of scores, but behind in a way that could take half a season to fix in terms of trades and cash gen and narrowing options.

Schneider Ming and Walters my base players last year

Rest of my team was awful though - started so badly, thankfully (with guidance) did loads of catching up

rhinoceroo wrote:So, for everyone running with 6 or 7 minimum price players, RL Fantasy Pro (I hate to give Butters credit but here we go) has a Team Analysis tool where you can look at every team's week-by-week and is currently showing last season's data.

I know value crops up in different places and positions from year to year, but giving a quick look at the top five teams last year and their Round One teams, a couple of things stood out:

1) Very few base price players, between 2 and 4

2) Everyone went heavy on WFB (Papy, Hynes and Teddy for the most part)

I think last year was the exception. Papy was underpriced as a gun keeper and was in 78% of teams that finished top 5000. Hynes was underpriced and ended up being the highest scorer in fantasy, started the year in 85% of teams that finished top 5000. It would be like Brimson and Ponga elevating to elite options. Teddy was also ~150k cheaper than Turbo to start the season which made the value okay

I know most are going overboard on base price players and I do think you need to spend a little bit at WFB, but I think we can safely say there isn't a Hynes lurking and there probably isn't a Papy

EDIT: For what it's worth I currently have Ponga, Turbo and CNK which is a decent chunk of change compared to most

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I think last year was the exception. Papy was underpriced as a gun keeper and was in 78% of teams that finished top 5000. Hynes was underpriced and ended up being the highest scorer in fantasy, started the year in 85% of teams that finished top 5000. It would be like Brimson and Ponga elevating to elite options. Teddy was also ~150k cheaper than Turbo to start the season which made the value okay

I know most are going overboard on base price players and I do think you need to spend a little bit at WFB, but I think we can safely say there isn't a Hynes lurking and there probably isn't a Papy

EDIT: For what it's worth I currently have Ponga, Turbo and CNK which is a decent chunk of change compared to most

Agree there's no Hynes. Still possible that Turbo and Ponga are being underrated (despite injury risks, which Papy also had last year) and the old top-down build your gun hok/mids first approach might not be the way to go. Didn't seem to be last year, with the caveat that that could have been an outlier for various reasons.

EDIT: Not far away from you. Currently Ponga, Turbo, TMM/Perham but will be looking at role (Ponga) and fitness (both) in trials.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Agree there's no Hynes. Still possible that Turbo and Ponga are being underrated (despite injury risks, which Papy also had last year) and the old top-down build your gun hok/mids first approach might not be the way to go. Didn't seem to be last year, with the caveat that that could have been an outlier for various reasons.

EDIT: Not far away from you. Currently Ponga, Turbo, TMM/Perham but will be looking at role (Ponga) and fitness (both) in trials.

currently running with the same back 3

I'm going a bit different - currently have Drinkwater locked in, but haven't decided on the other two. Will be taking a close look at Ponga and Miller this weekend.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Agree there's no Hynes. Still possible that Turbo and Ponga are being underrated (despite injury risks, which Papy also had last year) and the old top-down build your gun hok/mids first approach might not be the way to go. Didn't seem to be last year, with the caveat that that could have been an outlier for various reasons.

EDIT: Not far away from you. Currently Ponga, Turbo, TMM/Perham but will be looking at role (Ponga) and fitness (both) in trials.

I've got Ponga, but it's my plan to fund Turbo with one of my duds after his bye, somewhere around rds 3,4,5. There's always duds.

rhinoceroo wrote:So, for everyone running with 6 or 7 minimum price players, RL Fantasy Pro (I hate to give Butters credit but here we go) has a Team Analysis tool where you can look at every team's week-by-week and is currently showing last season's data.

I know value crops up in different places and positions from year to year, but giving a quick look at the top five teams last year and their Round One teams, a couple of things stood out:

1) Very few base price players, between 2 and 4

2) Everyone went heavy on WFB (Papy, Hynes and Teddy for the most part)

The resources and content out there for both Fantasy and Supercoach is just amazing. I remember when i first started playing there was nothing like this and I had to pick my own team

Honey Badger wrote:

The resources and content out there for both Fantasy and Supercoach is just amazing. I remember when i first started playing there was nothing like this and I had to pick my own team

This forum is a cheat code though, amalgamation of the best bits,

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

This forum is a cheat code though, amalgamation of the best bits,

We don't win anything tho

Which is the best combo, each costs about the same. Each has Uto as the other FRF.
1) Brailley (either) + Murray + Cotter +5k /0k ITB
2) Robson + Haas + Cotter + 7k
3) Grant + Carrigan + Cotter + 26k
4)Egan + Murray + Haas +48k
5) Grant + Murray + Gilbert + 15k
6) Grant + Haas + Welch + 39k
(None of the above gets me from Burton to Doueihi!)

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I think last year was the exception. Papy was underpriced as a gun keeper and was in 78% of teams that finished top 5000. Hynes was underpriced and ended up being the highest scorer in fantasy, started the year in 85% of teams that finished top 5000. It would be like Brimson and Ponga elevating to elite options. Teddy was also ~150k cheaper than Turbo to start the season which made the value okay

I know most are going overboard on base price players and I do think you need to spend a little bit at WFB, but I think we can safely say there isn't a Hynes lurking and there probably isn't a Papy

EDIT: For what it's worth I currently have Ponga, Turbo and CNK which is a decent chunk of change compared to most

Last year Hynes and Pappy were both priced very appealingly, I think quite a lot of teams had both, so the decision was basically whether to pair them with Teddy or a cheapie. There were cheap halves too that allowed Hynes to start at WFB when otherwise he might have been picked at HLF with a cheap WFB

This year Ponga and Trbo are the premium WFBs that look to be at a discount. So the question is whether the top 10 this year will all start with them or not.

on ponga was listening to the magic sponge podcast a few weeks ago & they explained his concussion history:
last 6 weeks of the 2021 season 3 concussions
since 2019 there are 5 concussions that we know of (could be more)
if he has 1 more concussion he could be out longer due to his history where the accumulation of concussions means a longer recovery

ponga just doesn't know how to tackle he gets head knocks because he puts his head in the wrong position. if someone had of taught him how to tackle when he was younger he'd have no concussions. this year he's playing in the defensive line which will require more tackling.

rhinoceroo wrote:

We don't win anything tho

We had a poor 2021, but generally we have a bunch of people doing well every year

Is there any forum/group that consistently has winners (with the assumption that most serious players lurk in multiple places)

I'll be at the games again tonight for those relying on my preseason intel

Milchcow wrote:

We had a poor 2021, but generally we have a bunch of people doing well every year

Is there any forum/group that consistently has winners (with the assumption that most serious players lurk in multiple places)

The Amateurs group did well last year, but yeah that's a couple of thousand people and they may well be lurking here too.

It's a fair point about the availability of content though, between mtvb and fantasy pro and Amateurs and a new Steve Nicholls-style bible and a new podcast every day it's a *lot*

Still won't think the season has really started until your first multi-coloured BE spreadsheet drops though. Best day of Fantasy other than TLT.