NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 11 - The case of the mistrusted team lists

Welshy wrote:

You want Ford mate. Grab him.

If he loses place you can drop down to BMM if he gets a decent role
If he continues starting on the edge for 60-80 should make some good cash for you

Any intel on whether Ford is nitrous or pro-charger mate? I think he's worth it either way, but am I in for a short, yet good time or longterm consistency?

Probably dump Uto for him if/when BSmith's confirmed in on Satty.

WT Winfield wrote:

Any intel on whether Ford is nitrous or pro-charger mate? I think he's worth it either way, but am I in for a short, yet good time or longterm consistency?

Probably dump Uto for him if/when BSmith's confirmed in on Satty.

My personal opinion mate is Curran is a better player and takes his position after a loss or 2!

But theres a fair chunk of change to be had if Ford continues starting and playing good minutes! Thought he looked good on the weekend!

Rabbits21 wrote:
I think he’s in for a big year too. S. Burgess has told him to add a bit more aggression to his game.

Thoughts on my potential trades mate? Uto down to a cashie in Carty. I feel Uto will be a slow burn. And Cheese who I don’t think is a keeper up to a keeper in Tohu?

I rate the trades, getting Tohu as well.

Welshy wrote:

My personal opinion mate is Curran is a better player and takes his position after a loss or 2!

But theres a fair chunk of change to be had if Ford continues starting and playing good minutes! Thought he looked good on the weekend!

Yeah I kinda zoned out of the 1st half, but the commentators wrapped his performance and I thought he looked alright in the 2nd.

Good signs that Curran came on for Niukore. Could've been game dependant, but Niukore can cover a few positions, so hopefully that's their plan with him.

WT Winfield wrote:

Yeah I kinda zoned out of the 1st half, but the commentators wrapped his performance and I thought he looked alright in the 2nd.

Good signs that Curran came on for Niukore. Could've been game dependant, but Niukore can cover a few positions, so hopefully that's their plan with him.

I think Walker is seen as the utility to cover multiple positions.

mattnz wrote:

I think Walker is seen as the utility to cover multiple positions.

Yeah true, but maybe more of a HK and HLF utility. Egan doesn't seem to play 80 too often. Both can play CTR, not sure which is preferred though.

Rabbits21 wrote:OTL have done a one off podcast tonight you can listen on Spotify now!

YES love OTL!

mattnz wrote:

In trading we use exponential moving averages - where the most recent outcomes have a heavier weighting than earlier outcomes. We could apply a similar principle to reviewing statistics in fantasy.

Kinda like how the most recent fantasy score has more weight for a players BE than an older one, and I think it does drop exponentially (or at least some power function)?

If so I love that idea. Might try and consciously do that as I look at stats from now on.

lubedragon wrote:Do we give Utoikamanu another week?

Yeah bro I think so. Dude got the minutes, just wasn't his game. I think if he gets similar minutes this week he outperforms and we will be happy we held. If not, easy trade.

Snatchpato wrote:
Kinda like how the most recent fantasy score has more weight for a players BE than an older one, and I think it does drop exponentially (or at least some power function)?

If so I love that idea. Might try and consciously do that as I look at stats from now on.

Yes, very similar concept.

Milchcow wrote:
On cheapies, someone sell me on Chee-Kam

Got a late call up last week, and Arrow missing this week. How long will he start for?
Ford a touch out of my price range, so looking at CHee-Kam or BMM for cheapies

Alternatively I can just keep running with Isaiya Katoa, but it seems that even if he makes cash it won't be much. Maybe if he goes on a try scoring run or something

Trying to decide if I cut losses with Katoa too, seems another Kane Elgey like disaster waiting to happen and thinking should jump to another cow before it's too late.

Watching the Dolphins game he didnt particularly look like a great fantasy prospect and they won, who knows how low he can score if they lose some games.

Was thinking him to BMM myself, but tempted by an HTF punt too

My take on Katoa - and a few more weeks might prove me wrong - is that he was an 18-year-old on debut, he's obviously full of talent or he wouldn't be there, and Wayne completely trusts him

He got half the kick metres, which was a huge plus, and 70 running metres. No attacking stats, which will be up and down but likely more up when he's bedded in, and the weird bit of the stats line which was 3 missed tackles (standard for a half) but only 6 tackles. Normally you'd expect 15 or so for a half. Maybe Felise was folding everybody in half before they got to him, but would certainly expect that stat line to go up. He's a solid looking little fucker too, it's not a Sam Walker situation.

Tl:dr 18-y-o on debut. High job security. Hold for a bit.

Am I going mad? Someone arguing with me that no one includes negatives when calculating base stats

rhinoceroo wrote:My take on Katoa - and a few more weeks might prove me wrong - is that he was an 18-year-old on debut, he's obviously full of talent or he wouldn't be there, and Wayne completely trusts him

He got half the kick metres, which was a huge plus, and 70 running metres. No attacking stats, which will be up and down but likely more up when he's bedded in, and the weird bit of the stats line which was 3 missed tackles (standard for a half) but only 6 tackles. Normally you'd expect 15 or so for a half. Maybe Felise was folding everybody in half before they got to him, but would certainly expect that stat line to go up. He's a solid looking little fucker too, it's not a Sam Walker situation.

Tl:dr 18-y-o on debut. High job security. Hold for a bit.

Yeah that's what I'm hoping. We've seen a few halves dud it up early, but they usually make money in the end. Even Elgey.

I can't stomach less than base price on the tradeout either

Bunnies go into tonights game with Arrow, Host, Knight, Sele, Havili and Tatola all out injured and Moale carrying a niggle, half tempted to let it ride with Garner but the dude doesnt fill me with any real confidence at all.

rhinoceroo wrote:My take on Katoa - and a few more weeks might prove me wrong - is that he was an 18-year-old on debut, he's obviously full of talent or he wouldn't be there, and Wayne completely trusts him

He got half the kick metres, which was a huge plus, and 70 running metres. No attacking stats, which will be up and down but likely more up when he's bedded in, and the weird bit of the stats line which was 3 missed tackles (standard for a half) but only 6 tackles. Normally you'd expect 15 or so for a half. Maybe Felise was folding everybody in half before they got to him, but would certainly expect that stat line to go up. He's a solid looking little fucker too, it's not a Sam Walker situation.

Tl:dr 18-y-o on debut. High job security. Hold for a bit.

Damn, convincing points perhaps I reconsider!

TMM my other option who I guess we know and his scores arent likely to be much better after seeing his role in last weeks game.

TMM frees up more cash, but then I lose WFB cover so need to consider that

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:Bunnies go into tonights game with Arrow, Host, Knight, Sele, Havili and Tatola all out injured and Moale carrying a niggle, half tempted to let it ride with Garner but the dude doesnt fill me with any real confidence at all.

I'd be more comfortable keeping him if he had played 65+ mins, but think the fact he only played 50 is the real concern as it's not enough for his price.

I'm dropping him before he bleeds any more cash

Loomer wrote:Am I going mad? Someone arguing with me that no one includes negatives when calculating base stats

Depends on whether you're calculating a predicted average, or just trying to figure out if they've got the right role.

Snatchpato wrote:
Depends on whether you're calculating a predicted average, or just trying to figure out if they've got the right role.

He was saying Bird average base at lock tackles+run metres and ignoring -12 per game in negatives

Loomer wrote:

He was saying Bird average base at lock tackles+run metres and ignoring -12 per game in negatives

Tell him he's dreaming