NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 11 - The case of the mistrusted team lists

Loomer wrote:

He was saying Bird average base at lock tackles+run metres and ignoring -12 per game in negatives

I'd probably agree with him then personally. I CBF looking at every single positive and negative stat to determine base. If I look at negatives like ER, MT, PC then I have to look at TB, TO as well, it all becomes too much.

Of course I'd look at them if I'm trying to do a bird projection, but if I'm just looking at birds "base", I too am just looking at tackles and run m (to get a vibe)

My back 5 this week are

Suaali Tabuai-Fidow
Ponga Mitchell Walsh

I am hoping to make up some ground here

Time to go ... Pele

Bring in Grant or Doueihi ?

Mulvy wrote:

It's possibly you I'm paraphrasing then. 2021 is a while ago and different rules then. Recent stats are better than older stats. Some stats are better than no stats. It's the same with evidence based medicine for example. Evidence based anything I suppose.

mattnz wrote:

In trading we use exponential moving averages - where the most recent outcomes have a heavier weighting than earlier outcomes. We could apply a similar principle to reviewing statistics in fantasy.

I think that's more the kind of approach I'll look to take this year. I won't be throwing out years of historical data based off one game, but in 5 weeks time Josh King is still pumping out 70s I'll have to ask why he isn't in my team

Chewie wrote:Looking forward to this round, looking for a bit more clarity on all the questions I have:


Hopgood - Was round 1 score an anomaly?

I'd back him in for another 60+ score looking at the bench. I have no doubt he will be holdable up until the bye, but I think considering him a captaincy option is over blown

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:Keaon Koloamatangi is one guy I want in my squad asap love watching him play and think he is in for a big year.

Koloamatangi and Olakau'atu both look like having monster years and breaking into the rep scene

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:Time to go ... Pele

Bring in Grant or Doueihi ?

Grant

I mean people (myself included) got Garner assuming an 80min role, now trading as he didn't get that role. This is actually a thing.

Probably too soon to apply that to Cheese, but the team looks fooked ATM, and word is he will play Lock if Radley is out. Leaving the option to bring him back is viable as the pack will settle down and he will resume the role people expected. I am leaning that the right call is probably to hold. I was surprised at how fat he looks though, considering he was supposed to be a big min Hooker.

Garner to Carty locked in. Mightly tempted by Cheese to Tohu TBH.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Would you trade out Uto if you had him?

I do have him.

I think I will give TMM another crack this week. Got 24 while not doing anything. Maybe he won't do anything every week but I thought he had some nice touches the few times he did get involved so might see how he goes. Plus SJ is usually moments away from injury each week.

Will keep an eye on Mbye this weekend as a possible trade him in for him if he fails again.

I also have Uto who I can't help but feel will be a guy I get rid of in the next few weeks (just from previous experience) but hopefully he steps up.

Trades are;

TMM - Thompson
Katoa/Talau - Carty

Whichever one of Talau or Katoa I do sacrifices cover for now and trading Katoa means I only have one half next week if Hynes is back. Gut feel is both are shit but more that Katoa isn't built for fantasy. Elgey vibes.

Loomer wrote:

He was saying Bird average base at lock tackles+run metres and ignoring -12 per game in negatives

Checked the stats and only played 6 games at LK, all at the end of last season. 29 tackles, 100rm and 4 MTs per game, so 31 base just using those. MTs are -2, not -3 if that's where you got -12 from.

6 TBs per game stands out imo, so looks a solid base around 40 from those 6 games.

Has a career average of 36 at CTR, 44 at SR and 41 at 5/8. Should average over 40 pretty easily at LK. Even if he got moved around, it's hard to see him not being a keeper at CTR.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:My back 5 this week are

Suaali Tabuai-Fidow
Ponga Mitchell Walsh

I am hoping to make up some ground here

Hope you get rewarded

Flair picks

Only trade so far is Cheese to Mahoney. I agree with everyone saying it could be premature to get rid of Cheese but I just feel better having a 80 minute hooker in my team.

Weiland wrote:I think I will give TMM another crack this week. Got 24 while not doing anything. Maybe he won't do anything every week but I thought he had some nice touches the few times he did get involved so might see how he goes. Plus SJ is usually moments away from injury each week.

If you are looking for any tidbit of "hopium", Webster said he missed most of the week of training due to birth of baby, and therefore was a little underprepared. But is pretty excited about what TMM will do this year.

my tv broke wrote:

If you are looking for any tidbit of "hopium", Webster said he missed most of the week of training due to birth of baby, and therefore was a little underprepared.

y u do dis?

I may look at punting Uto instead. Checking his previous scores, I'm not sure why we are all expecting a sudden uptick in points each week.

wolfking wrote:

y u do dis?

I may look at punting Uto instead.  Checking his previous scores, I'm not sure why we are all expecting a sudden uptick in points each week.

Ha!

I would happily punt TMM in favour of quick cash making, but that DPP HLF/WFB gives me a back up in round 4 (Tedesco bye) and round 5 (Boyd bye), so he can hang around.

I reckon his scoring can improve though. Would be nice if he can save his best scores for when I need to play him.

wolfking wrote:
I may look at punting Uto instead.  Checking his previous scores, I'm not sure why we are all expecting a sudden uptick in points each week.

I think its been a case of overvaluing 2021 scoring.

2022 drop was partly due to injury, but partly regression to the mean. His BE is low enough that he is no urgent trade out, but if that's how you get the player you want in, I'm not sure its silly.

my tv broke wrote:
I reckon his scoring can improve though. Would be nice if he can save his best scores for when I need to play him.

His best scores will be when he's outside your 17 (and unloopable) or just after you trade him out

This is the way

wolfking wrote:

y u do dis?

I may look at punting Uto instead.  Checking his previous scores, I'm not sure why we are all expecting a sudden uptick in points each week.

I'm probably punting Uto because I feel like every week will be hoping for a try to get something going (and he can score them).

He averages 46 in games over 40 mins, but only happened twice last year and the rest in 2021 which we're mostly ignoring. Average of 40 in games over 30 mins, which would make over 150k.. but again, most games from 2021.