NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 11 - The case of the mistrusted team lists

Milchcow wrote:

This is from mtb's site



Average minutes 71, average score - 38.9

Remove Blore and Frizell who got injured, and its 40.7 points in 75.5 minutes

Anyone who watched ALL the games able to quantify/estimate how many starting edges were then shifted into the middle after say 20 minutes...
There seems to be a lot of (particularly Podcast) theory about player X starting on the edge and playing there for 20 minutes before moving into the middle so that player Y can come on and see out the game at edge.

Generally, I'm pretty dismissive of those theories, but curious as to how often this happens?
I guess it's probably only those that maybe end up with 60 minutes (looking at RFM)

Milchcow wrote:
I don't even know if you guys are joking or not, but Murdoch Masila is quite tempting

What's the risk? Fuimaono? Bird to edge and JDB to lock? Billy Burns?

I think you pretty much answered that question with your stats before
He seems a likely player if given enough time on the field.
Base price so a pretty cheap buy in
I have all the cheap 2RF already so better than a bench full of CTR

Mulvy wrote:

Why E Katoa though?

Others would be Cheese or Eutcher but I think in my situation that's not sideways, it's backwards. Plus Cheese affects team balance a bit too much.

I'm 99% sure I'm not doing this, just thought it was interesting in the context of a lot of stuff flying around right now. He costs 50k more, so will likely make 50k less than Loiero in the future. And that 50k can be used to make another move that is better for points and cash.

Milchcow wrote:
I don't even know if you guys are joking or not, but Murdoch Masila is quite tempting

What's the risk? Fuimaono? Bird to edge and JDB to lock? Billy Burns?

If he gets 60+ minutes he is probably in my team next week. Always had limited minutes at the Warriors.

mrbrownstone wrote:What do people think of E Butcher ->Tohu?

I don't particularly want to sell Butcher as I think he will be good for 45-50s, but there's an argument that he's stalled any price rises now until after his bye. On the other hand I think there's a reasonable chance Tohu is about 8-10 points underpriced if he's back to his 2020/21 form.

Conflicted.

I prefer Smith if he is an option for you, I have both Smith and Butcher and getting Tohu. One got the role you wanted, the other didn't.

Well I'm convinced. IKatoa to BMM locked in. Let's go Dragons

Now to decide on Talau to Hammer or Thompson

Anyone watched the Stan series opener Dawn of the Dolphin. Really good watch and great insight and in-depth analysis into the year prior to the start of last week.

Hope it's like the Tigers doco where it actually follows them through the season as well.

Milchcow wrote:
I don't even know if you guys are joking or not, but Murdoch Masila is quite tempting

What's the risk? Fuimaono? Bird to edge and JDB to lock? Billy Burns?

I'm conflicted on BMM.

Doesn't pass the 'no shit players' rule.

But who's stealing minutes from him? Bench is two middles, a hooker, and a debutant. JDB isn't stealing EDG minutes when he comes back. Does Bird go to the second row when JDB returns?

Think I'll give him the eye test this week, but I reckon he most likely makes money.

Just looking further at edge minutes. Capewell got an HIA and EButcher was sinbinned. It really is a small minority of uninjured edge players that get subbed.

I think KBrom also spent some time in the middle, but I was on my way to Liechhardt on Sunday so I didn't watch that game

Rabbits21 wrote:So if I go Uto to Carty and Cheese to Tohu team would be this:

78k spare 34 trades (til round 20)

Grant
Haas Hopgood Tohu
Katoa Loiero
Cleary Douiehi
Thompson Alamoti
Talau Miller Warbrick

Boyd E. Butcher Ford Turbo
Carty BMM Trindall Doorey


Thoughts please?

Move Turbo to starting 13, play Carty and flip a coin on who to play centre out of Alamoti and Talau

mattnz wrote:

I prefer Smith if he is an option for you, I have both Smith and Butcher and getting Tohu. One got the role you wanted, the other didn't.

Have also considered that. I think selling B Smith after one week is pretty reactive though and I don't love the idea of Boyd being my only HOK cover. If he underperforms again this week I should have the cash to turn him into Mahoney.

mrbrownstone wrote:

Milchcow wrote:
I don't even know if you guys are joking or not, but Murdoch Masila is quite tempting

What's the risk? Fuimaono? Bird to edge and JDB to lock? Billy Burns?

I'm conflicted on BMM.

Doesn't pass the 'no shit players' rule.

But who's stealing minutes from him? Bench is two middles, a hooker, and a debutant. JDB isn't stealing EDG minutes when he comes back. Does Bird go to the second row when JDB returns?

Think I'll give him the eye test this week, but I reckon he most likely makes money.

This week I think BMM is good to go.

The worry (like with other cheap edges) is future weeks, especially if Dragons lose a few games and feel the need to make changes.

robelgordo wrote:

I thought everyone was making sideways and occasionally backwards moves to restructure their teams this week?

If I rephrase as Katoa/Talau to Loiero/Carty as a package deal is it still sideways

People aren't generally trading out guys that beat their BE by 8 points, despite 14 points in negatives and 0 attacking stats, who played the whole game. He can easily bang out a 60 next week with a try and you regret trading him out. My concern for Katoa was not getting 80 minutes, but he did. Definitely has the role you wanted for him.

Talau didn't score terrible, basically made his BE, despite being on 1 leg most of the game in a team that lost badly.

What does your team look like? Surely there are guys that seriously underperformed and dont have the role that you wanted, that you can use to bring in the guys that you do want?

mrbrownstone wrote:

My 2 cents:

- Previous pedigree (Carty 45 avg in second row vs Chee Kam 37)
- Lower BE (Carty -3 vs Chee Kam 2)
- More sustainable stats (Chee Kam needed 2 TO tackles and a KD to reach 48)
- Higher ownership to mitigate risk (Carty 22.3% vs Chee Kam 4.7%)
- Better JS in theory (Host due back next round, Lane due back R5-7, potential for Carty to overtake Doorey even then, zero chance Chee Kam overtakes Koala)
- Better draw (Souths have Penrith x2, Melb x2 an Roosters before round 10)

Thanks
I started with both as they both seemed good
Forgot some might not have either so can see the preference and only 2 trades to fix lots of spots

Some good discussion in here today, enjoying it
Must be game day or something or everyone has made their trades

Will be keeping a close eye on the Penriff hooker rotation tonight and how the mins look between Kenny/Luke to see if anything has slightly changed

Milchcow wrote:

Giving someone a nickname that is also the actual name of another player in the same position is even better.

When is Ford back from injury?

OMG you are a genius Milchcow...

How do you come you come up with them?

From now on

Kamikamica will be known as Ford
& Ford will be known as Standard
Standard Issue will be know as Piss Off

and Milchcow will be known as Sore

Aardvark wrote:Did everyone drafting in a Mahoney, Tohu, Robson etc start with one gun too few or are you blowing your budget too early to squeeze in an extra gun (or going sideways)?

Yes you should pick up guns when their price bottoms out but round 2 might be a bit too soon if you sacrificing money making potential.

Sideways is a bit knee jerk but is probably fine if you're convinced it's a good move.

I am going sideways, but to players that look to be $200k undervalued for players that aren't likely to increase their value significantly in the short term.

There has been discussion on needing 2 trades to bring a guy into your team and back out. These 3 players each play 2 bye rounds, Mahoney and Tohu can be season keepers, (Robson likely has too many late byes in the season, but is a possible keeper). You are spending 1 less trade to get these guys in for the season, than for anyone you need to bring in, then out again.

These are the players that if you don't bring them in now, they are your targets at higher price points in round 13.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

OMG you are a genius Milchcow...

How do you come you come up with them?

From now on

Kamikamica will be known as Ford
& Ford will be known as Standard
Standard Issue will be know as Piss Off

and Milchcow will be known as Sore

Given the confusion around there being multiple Kar-toas, i think it makes sense to refer to the Melbourne player as Ford as well

mattnz wrote:
Carty has a history (at times, not all the time), of being a fantasy gun, capable of a 50 average at EDG. MCK scored 10 points over his average as a starting EDG of 37.

Fair enough
I was just using their recents results as players change all the time and get a fresh start without the drama
Siosifa Talakai was a gun junior then became a garbo and even played origin last year

Will be interesting how it all plays out, it’s a long season