NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 16 - Does anyone have a case of Fig Jam? Looking to buy

AL wrote:


Thanks Champ.

Revraiser wrote:Why did Robson score lowish last week?

Crikey he is 799k

mickspicks wrote:Anyone playing IKatoa this week? Up against a depleted knights

Welsh Mafia wrote:

Very similar boat to you mate. Dilemma is Reed v Robson v Grant I think.
Reed offers a lot of value at a lower price, no risk of Origin and he looks to have a much larger influence on the team - kicking, running, attacking returns etc
Robson is a gun 80 min hooker, has a great bye schedule but a higher BE and may be priced about right at the mo
Grant - a genuine captaincy option most weeks, looks lively everytime he gets his hands on the ball and someone you hate to watch as a non owner. Kicks the ball, runs it and tackles a lot.

When I write it out I feel like Grant;s the guy, but damn Reed's potential and extra cash are enticing, and Reece's schedule.

Eek!

Revraiser wrote:

Reckon this strategy could be applied and then still have a genuine shot at trading Ur way out of it ?

Fortitude wrote:Would be an interesting variation to an auto fill challenge. Choose your favourite nrl team, fill your fantasy team with players from that team only. And see how high you can get with trading from there

Camo123 wrote:

I would say Mahoney is a Grant injury away from Origin and then QLD would do Hunt & Mahoney so not no real risk

Chewie wrote:

I like MS's fullback tier list:

Tier 1
Teddy, Turbo, Papy, Latrell, Ponga

Tier 2
Edwards, Brimson, Gutho, Walsh

Tier 3
Drinkwater, Kennedy

Tier 4
Laurie, CNK, Savage

Tier 5
Hammer, Miller, Ramsay, Sloan, Perham

I think Walsh could be a good WFB3, other options outside the FBs are Kiraz and Garick
If you don't have any other fires to tend to, I think Walsh is a good shout

Chewie wrote:

I'm going with Hopgood as my captaincy pick, he may get less minutes, but he's also due a Try


...first banner of 2023 incoming

mrbrownstone wrote:

Yup it's tough hey. Reed is definitely the value option, I think Robson/Grant/Cook are probably priced as is. At this stage I think I'm just leaning towards getting Cook, only 5.8% owned could be a nice POD over Grant at 24.6% to pull my rank back after a shocking start.

If you can't afford Cook I think I'd probably lean Robson over Grant tbh given his bye schedule and upcoming draw.

Camo123 wrote:

Captain percentages (off Talking League FB)

Hopgood 19.76
Cleary 11.22
Grant 7.97
Murray 4.84
DCE 3.99
Teddy 2.84
Carrigan 2.67
Haas 2.32
Latrell 2.08
Hynes 1.85

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Does that mean Twal gets one too? Surely he’s due!

Finch wrote:No chance of us finding out abut Carrigan before Eels/Manly game, right?

Can play Doorey instead to keep 17 players, but don't want to if Carrigan will be playing.....

wolfking wrote:

Gotta be honest, that's a lot higher for Hopgood than I expected.

Welsh Mafia wrote:

Agree. Although on second thought, I might just keep the Chin. Being agile this week incase CArrigan is out may be a better play, plus we're all going to want the chin in the team come the end so probably a knee jerk move in hindsight.

easytiger wrote:Just some curious stats I was wondering about with regards to a selection of topical fullbacks - I was curious as to their fantasy averages when they score tries vs when they don't;

The sample is generally the number of games they have played in the 2022-2023 seasons, with the following additions.
* HTF: I included three 2021 games as they seemed to be appropriate, boosts his sample size (and not doped by Vlandy's ball)
* Turbo: I included six 2020 games, again to improve a representative sample (and also seemed appropriate to his 2022-2023 stats).

	Sample	Try Rate	NoTry Ave	Try Ave	Try vs NoTry diff	Cost	Priced @	Proj Try rate	Projection
Tedesco	25	40%	43.8	66.5	22.7	$        707	50.5	40%	52.9
Miller	6	33%	37.0	63.0	26.0	$        451	32.2	35%	46.1
Turbo	14	43%	32.4	53.2	20.8	$        631	45.1	50%	42.8
HTF	10	50%	28.6	50.0	21.4	$        452	32.3	50%	39.3
Walsh	22	11%	32.9	42.8	9.9	$        545	38.9	50%	37.9

With Walsh I have removed his GK from his averages (-4.2 pts per game, and dropped his average kick metres points down from 3 to 2), I have boosted his try scoring rate from 11% to a high-rate of 50%.

I'm using Tedesco as a sort of benchmark.
Obviously take the projections with a grain of salt.

The things it maybe illustrates for me;
HTF is still undervalued, but possibly by only 5 points - his real value is that he's a decent floor average with a good ceiling available at CTR (pretty much what we knew).

Walsh needs significant improvement in Fantasy stats to offer value. It's possible, but always an increased risk when you're aiming for that to be the reason for improved scoring (rather than a change of role or minutes).

Millers sample is too small to take too much away, except his style of play (slapsies) suits fantasy points - if he can add a decent try rate... who knows...?

Anyway, a somewhat interesting curiousity more than anything...

Additional note: I removed any significantly injury affected outliers from the samples... (i.e. no 10 minute games that drop averages etc)