NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 20 - Kaufusi + 4 weeks = Null SQ

filthridden wrote:Alright, lining up for the round as follows:

Hodgson
Haas, Harris, Hopgood
Cartwright, Katoa
Cleary (c), Reynolds
Alamoti, HSS
Tedesco, Turbo, Miller

Preston, Loiero, Boyd, BMM

Stone, Doorey, Warbrick, ITT

Looking forward to having no players with a bye in round 6 or 7 (Sharks, Tigers)

easytiger wrote:With the talk of Warbrick, Grant, Anyone/Everyone going big against the Tigers, I thought I'd do a deep dive into how Wingers have gone against the Tigers so far this year;

Aardvark wrote:Confession...I don't look at matchups when picking a captain. Traditionally I'm a set and forget captain aficionado but if forced to choose I will look at the players with the highest averages and then apply the eye test.

A caveat would be that I wouldn't give it to a guy who has two great games under his belt (Hopgood) vs a proven performer (Grant)

My theory (which I think is born out by stats) is that this method at the very least will be equal to trying to pick the highest scorer every week based on matchups. Might cost me 20-30 points on any given week but confident that they come back to me in the longer term.

easytiger wrote:With the talk of Warbrick, Grant, Anyone/Everyone going big against the Tigers, I thought I'd do a deep dive into how Wingers have gone against the Tigers so far this year;

The Bludger#2 wrote:

You have Harry & Robson!!
Damn that's some nice Hooker depth right there.

Aardvark wrote:Confession...I don't look at matchups when picking a captain. Traditionally I'm a set and forget captain aficionado but if forced to choose I will look at the players with the highest averages and then apply the eye test.

A caveat would be that I wouldn't give it to a guy who has two great games under his belt (Hopgood) vs a proven performer (Grant)

My theory (which I think is born out by stats) is that this method at the very least will be equal to trying to pick the highest scorer every week based on matchups. Might cost me 20-30 points on any given week but confident that they come back to me in the longer term.

L-Jimmy wrote:I'm just gonna tattoo "small sample sizes" on my forehead and sponsor the site with a fucking selfie so I can stop repeating myself.

robelgordo wrote:

I think matchups are super overrated, outside perhaps wingers, and you're not captaining a winger (unless Dolphins keep winning and Isaako shoots up).

So it seems best to play the long-term performance rather than attempt to guess the high outliers.

Take a step back its actually hilarious that Hopgood was the #1 captain choice last week and might not be top 10 this week. 2 data points vs 1. Cleary was #1 choice in R1 and R2 based on 3 years of data, and because of a solitary 37, is now being overlooked for various other options by owners. Haas is a solid option but is he the likely #1 choice this week if he got 55 rather than 65 in R3?

wolfking wrote:I'm so easily influenced.  ETs post is making me doubt picking Grant as cappo now haha.

Loomer wrote:

Actually no Grant has been killing me and with only Boyd the sooner I fix HOK the better and worry about Rd 13 players later

I could do AD + Ebut to

Grant + Wakeham + 209k
SJ + Lemuele + 367k

EDIT: probably do Grant + Lemuele + 116k

I think Wakeham worth risk for getting Grant and can get Lemuele next week

easytiger wrote:With the talk of Warbrick, Grant, Anyone/Everyone going big against the Tigers, I thought I'd do a deep dive into how Wingers have gone against the Tigers so far this year;

So far the Tigers have played the Titans, Knights and Bulldogs.
This table looks at what the respective wingers have scored against the Tigers vs what they have scored in their other match-ups.

I've included their priced average as a indicator of expected performance (albeit AKP and Hunt are possible cash cows).

   

Wing	Price	v WST	v OTH	Price Avg	T v WST	T v OTH
Josh Addo-Carr	$               504	49	33	37.1	2	1
Jacob Kiraz	$               666	38	69	49.0	0	2
Dominic Young	$                431	56	12	31.7	2	0
Hymel Hunt	$               280	11	30	20.6	0	1
Jojo Fifita	$                453	25	17	33.3	0	0
Alofiana Khan-Pereira	$                234	0	32	17.2	0	3
	Average:	29.8	32.1	31.5	0.67	0.64

The Tigers in three matches have conceded 4 tries to wings for a total Fantasy points average of 29.8.
The other match-ups have conceded 7 tries from 11 outings for a total Fantasy points average of 32.1.

So fairly much on par.
Will Warbrick plays on the right wing, so looking at this again from the point of view of left/right wings against the Tigers

	v WST	v OTH	Price Avg	T v WST	T v OTH
Left average	20.0	31.7	25.0	0.67	0.83
Right average	39.7	32.5	38.0	0.67	0.40

The Tigers left edge defense has conceded more fantasy points, but in this instance we are talking about the more established wings of Kiraz, Young and Jojo Fifita (average priced at 38 across the three of them), vs the 20 points conceded on average to AFB, Hunt and JAC (who would have scored less were it not for Doueihi's pass direct to Alamoti resulting in an Addo Carr try).

Warbrick may have some improved opportunity based on what we've seen so far, but I wouldn't suggest it's a slam dunk.



How bad are the Tigers when it comes to restricting the amount of fantasy points opposition score?

The short answer is that it's early season, we've only seen 3 games.
The Tigers attack has been particularly clunky and you can well see that most of their spine missed the majority of pre-season, with some pretty substandard performances.
Their defense has had it's moments, but also some decent moments. They've lost 3 games by an average of a converted try.

When it comes to conceding fantasy points by team, currently the Sharks are the worst, conceding 682 points per game to their opposition.

Currently, the top four teams for conceding the least fantasy points per game are;
Sea Eagles 555
Broncos 577
Tigers  580
Panthers 585

It's maybe worth noting (with Grant playing), that 2023 gun hooker Reed Mahoney managed just 48 points against the Tigers (his other 2 outings 71 vs the Sea Eagles, and 54 vs the Storm).
J Brailey got injured (5 points in 14 minutes). Sam Verrills scored 43 in 80 minutes (a point above his BE).

Maybe the Storm put the Tigers to the sword tonight, maybe it ends up closer than people expect.

Antipodean1 wrote:

Probably just get it printed on the front of your underdaks :laugh:

robelgordo wrote:

Curious what's your preference for Sloan over CNK, aside from $ making?

Antipodean1 wrote:

I am grabbing Lem next week, he is not getting away with a 35 BE. Same with Ford.

Loomer wrote:

Lem BE on footystats is 30 but think someone posted on official it's 23

L-Jimmy wrote:

Oh, is your mum shit at stats? I'd probably best get written around the ring then.