NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 24 - Responsibility is not a good look for me

Milchcow wrote:
Anyone who subscribes to Butters site want to posy a couple of BEs for popular players to compare to official/mtb?

He had decent predictions last year. Most of the time it doesn't matter too much anyway. 10 points can be a bit of a swing, but if a BE being out by 5 can ruin your trade, then it probably wasn't the best trade anyway

Happy to send some through later when I have a minute, think I have the code floating around to grab all the BEs somewhere.

mattnz wrote:

Yeah Talakai was a great buy at $400k when we got on last year.

Wow that’s a good pick, that and Kiraz this year
Have to change your name to Nostradamus

Milchcow wrote:Here's the $value, total score and MN for the first 4 rounds for anyone who wants to look into Magic Number stuff

 

Salary	Score	MN
$136,948,000	9821	13944
$135,540,000	9863	13742
$132,378,000	9940	13318
$134,431,000	10380	12951

BE6 looks about right then for Hosking

I'm guessing the official BEs are fixed to the preseason MN.

my tv broke wrote:Is everyone else burning through trades ? Ive max traded so far which is not my norm. Doesnt appear to be slowing down any time soon with Hynes or Cleary someone I need to get soon.

Banked 1 and plan to bank another this week which is probably par for the course for me.

I usually slow down about now which, unfortunately, I can't see happening this year given a few blokes will need to be moved along in the coming weeks

my tv broke wrote:Is everyone else burning through trades ? Ive max traded so far which is not my norm. Doesnt appear to be slowing down any time soon with Hynes or Cleary someone I need to get soon.

This is my Hosking worry.

It's only one trade, but one becomes two becomes 6, and then next minute I'm playing with 7 players in R19 because I don't have the trades left to manoeuvre around the byes.

Part of me thinks it might be worth seeing if another week provides some clarity on Martin and Garner, and just letting it pass me by if it doesn't

On the other hand, Egan Butcher becomes Hosking very easily.

Have to trade Boyd out to get Cleary this week (which is annoying) but realised that with good planning I probably don't have to worry too much about not having HOK cover.

Cook plays before Brailey every round until Rd16 (except Rd9 but they both play on Friday night so should know if Cook is out before the Knights kick off), so as long as I keep a trade available until Cook plays I can always trade him to Brailey if necessary.

robelgordo wrote:I think I've just about been convinced it's Hoskings time. Although I do think people are throwing around "it's only one trade" pretty flippantly.

It's 2 trades if he loses his spot...

Bethany_B wrote:Any updates as to Hands's contract status or exemptions?

I was told that he had an exemption while Mitch Rein was injured, but Mitch Rein is named to play reserve grade this week, so surely that can't be right.

At this point I'm not touching him unless we get info that he's been upgraded to the top 30.

Don't let Mitch Rein on your parade, touching Hands could be the start of something beautiful...

SoylentGreen wrote:Have to trade Boyd out to get Cleary this week (which is annoying) but realised that with good planning I probably don't have to worry too much about not having HOK cover.

Cook plays before Brailey every round until Rd16 (except Rd9 but they both play on Friday night so should know if Cook is out before the Knights kick off), so as long as I keep a trade available until Cook plays I can always trade him to Brailey if necessary.

You don't need too many hookers in the kitchen when you'vé got a Cook mate.

Antipodean1 wrote:

Don't let Mitch Rein on your parade, touching Hands could be the start of something beautiful...

Says he played off interchange first 2 and 69 mins last game in NSW Cup so not injured

my tv broke wrote:Is everyone else burning through trades ? Ive max traded so far which is not my norm. Doesnt appear to be slowing down any time soon with Hynes or Cleary someone I need to get soon.

I've saved one so far and honestly not too fussed, we have 8 more trades compared to last year and I didn't run out super early last year being similarly aggressive.

Antipodean1 wrote:

It's 2 trades if he loses his spot...

I'm assuming it's 2 trades no matter what, I don't think he's a keeper to the end and whether or not he makes you enough money, it's 1 trade to get him in and 1 more to get him out - how well he does only governs who you sell him to.

Bethany_B wrote:

I'm assuming it's 2 trades no matter what, I don't think he's a keeper to the end and whether or not he makes you enough money, it's 1 trade to get him in and 1 more to get him out - how well he does only governs who you sell him to.

He looks like a keeper to me. So hopefully only 1 trade overall

But what I meant was two forced trades early on, one to get him this round and one to trade him out if he is not named next week.

Antipodean1 wrote:

He looks like a keeper to me. So hopefully only 1 trade overall

If that happens then great, but I'm assuming it won't. Worst case if I'm wrong that's one less trade I need to make.

Bethany_B wrote:

If that happens then great, but I'm assuming it won't. Worst case if I'm wrong that's one less trade I need to make.

I have traded him in, his $ making ability is too good to pass up, I am also getting Ford.

Cleary has a BE around 80, he can wait a week.

Bethany_B wrote:

I'm assuming it's 2 trades no matter what, I don't think he's a keeper to the end and whether or not he makes you enough money, it's 1 trade to get him in and 1 more to get him out - how well he does only governs who you sell him to.

That is not my downvote.

Antipodean1 wrote:

I have traded him in, his $ making ability is too good to pass up, I am also getting Ford.

Cleary has a BE around 80, he can wait a week.

Good trades. I already have Ford so my 2 trades are Trindall and Boyd for Brailey and Hosking since I have no hooker and Boyd won't make much money for a while anyway.

Trying to decide who to trade for Hosking and Ford, out of Uto, Kenny and Cheese (had to hold)

Feels like Cheese > Ford is a no brainer given Cheese's breakeven of 60, can always bring him back in a few weeks if he kills it

Looking at Kenny he has:

53 tackles in 67 mins
32 tackles in 41 mins
56 tackles in 82 mins

Assuming he can reduce his MTs (big assumption), he has a very decent floor. If he started to look like an actual dynamic player (which thought he might have worked on in offseason) with some attacking stats he could start scoring really well. Feels like this week might be a good test of that

Uto meanwhile can average 45 for another 3 weeks, picks up another $80k or so and becomes close to $600k.

All in all leaning towards Cheese / Uto to Hosking / Ford, just due to Kenny's potential upside.

But the more I think about it, the less I'm certain Hosking goes any better than Kikau - and a gain of $150k if he only holds spot for 3 weeks is offset by another $80k or so from Uto or Kenny, meaning it's potentially two trades and only $70k net gain

Of course if Hosking holds the spot and guns it, I miss a huge cash generation opp and likely drop out of the top 1k ... which really begs the question, do you play conservatively - or do you play to win?

Soap wrote:Trying to decide who to trade for Hosking and Ford, out of Uto, Kenny and Cheese (had to hold)

Feels like Cheese > Ford is a no brainer given Cheese's breakeven of 60, can always bring him back in a few weeks if he kills it

Looking at Kenny he has:

53 tackles in 67 mins
32 tackles in 41 mins
56 tackles in 82 mins

Assuming he can reduce his MTs (big assumption), he has a very decent floor. If he started to look like an actual dynamic player (which thought he might have worked on in offseason) with some attacking stats he could start scoring really well. Feels like this week might be a good test of that

Uto meanwhile can average 45 for another 3 weeks, picks up another $80k or so and becomes close to $600k.

All in all leaning towards Cheese / Uto to Hosking / Ford, just due to Kenny's potential upside.

But the more I think about it, the less I'm certain Hosking goes any better than Kikau - and a gain of $150k if he only holds spot for 3 weeks is offset by another $80k or so from Uto or Kenny, meaning it's potentially two trades and only $70k net gain

Of course if Hosking holds the spot and guns it, I miss a huge cash generation opp and likely drop out of the top 1k ... which really begs the question, do you play conservatively - or do you play to win?

No idea how your team looks, but why force the Hosking trade? Cheese to Ford sounds great. Uto is probably good to trade too so you could get Hosking, but what happens if he doesn't get named next week?

Everyone just open the wallet and go Doorey to Hosking. Problem solved.

Thank you.