NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 24 - Responsibility is not a good look for me

mattnz wrote:Just a reality check for those looking at Hosking, has never averaged more than 56 in any season in reserve grade. Might be a cheap keeper, but no certainty on job security or minutes when Panthers have Garner and Martin back.

Ford is $160k less and looks to have an 80 minute EDG to himself and is dual.

Fair point and well said
If you were one of the 20k Ford owners and didn’t have to choose would you trade Hosking in?

Daedalus wrote:

Unless the guy you trade out for him also makes $100k over that time

Exactly.

It's not that I think he's not a good trade in option but for those who are thinking about trading out players they don't really want to trade out, and who still have money to make, I wouldn't just make it happen on the basis that Hosking is a must have

If you're doing it you also have to accept there's some risk that next week he's out of the team and you made $70k and used 2 trades getting him in and out. We will all probably judge that risk a bit differently

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
You have him averaging 80 over the next two weeks? That’s rather generous

Nah mate only needs 55 over the next 2 weeks to make 200k (according to Footystatistics)

Snatchpato wrote:What MN are we considering reasonable at the moment? I've been using 13500 but it might be way off.

I've been using 13,750 but not sure if the last couple rounds have changed it much

my tv broke wrote:

So when I traded out Alamoti, and then traded him back in by accident. Was that the win?

That number isn't between $150k and $200k ya gronk!

King Assassin wrote:

Nah mate only needs 55 over the next 2 weeks to make 200k (according to Footystatistics)

Might want to check that again - I've got 85 as the number he'd need to score to make $200k. Using the same site with a MN of 13500.

King Assassin wrote:

Nah mate only needs 55 over the next 2 weeks to make 200k (according to Footystatistics)

13,500 MN at 55 gives him 150k in 3 weeks?

Edit: Filth too fast

Snatchpato wrote:What MN are we considering reasonable at the moment? I've been using 13500 but it might be way off.

13500 is probably fine, might have been low 13000s this week

Borey Doorey to Lemuelu

Any objections from the crowd?

Daedalus wrote:

Unless the guy you trade out for him also makes $100k over that time

Fair. In my case Trindall or Doorey so, I think I'm happy to take a punt.

Contrastinghobby wrote:

Fair point and well said
If you were one of the 20k Ford owners and didn’t have to choose would you trade Hosking in?

Unsure, would mean missing Hynes this week, (I need a half or have to play Katoa with Boyd out), Ford is in budget for me, Hosking isn't. Might mean going down to Matamua for me instead if I already had Ford.

Has been in my black book, waiting for him to get a chance.

filthridden wrote:

Might want to check that again - I've got 85 as the number he'd need to score to make $200k. Using the same site with a MN of 13500.

I had it set to 14000 but even with 13500 60 gets him to 200k.

Spoiler:

King Assassin wrote:

I had it set to 14000 but even with 13500 60 gets him to 200k.

Spoiler:

I bet you round it up by a few inches as well haha
Thats 3 weeks

Still big however you measure it

With Trindall named, think I might take the extra 20k for stepping on the field and trade Doorey to Ford

Looking to get rid of Thompson also but just trying to figure out if any cheapies are worth it

King Assassin wrote:

I had it set to 14000 but even with 13500 60 gets him to 200k.

Spoiler:

Wait nvm i see what ive done lmao. Ive been adding up the bottom price change thinking it was on a week to week basis *Facepalm*

Speaking of Penis, is Alamoti this years version centre keeper?
I feel his fortune relies on how well the dogs go but I reckon he hangs around all year

Just regarding Hosking from a real-life player point of view...

Hosking has never put more than 2 games together before, not that he can't, he just hasn't. One thing to consider is how much a long stretch of games impacts a player. He makes a LOT of tackles for an edge, runs a lot of metres, and doesn't make many errors. As the games go on (should he get an extended run in the starting side), he will likely drop the amount of tackles he makes, run the ball less, miss more tackles, make more errors, and give away more penalties, purely from fatigue.

Here are his stats compared to 6 uniquely different, but fantasy relevant edge backrowers with longevity on their side. All players stats are based on 70+ minute starts at 2RF. Tackles and RM rounded to nearest integer, negative stats rounded to 1.d.p.



As you can see, Hosking is well above in positive stats, and equal to or below in all 3 negative stats. I have no doubt that if given a long stint at 2RF for the Panthers his stats would definitely regress back to the mean in a lot of ways.

Not trying to say that he's not a good buy, he likely is, but I just wanted to use some stats + logic to back up the idea that he might not be the 60+ long term average you think he is.

Disclaimer: If Hosking does average 60+ after a 10-game sample I'll gladly use these stats as a reference to the fact that I knew he was well above average from the start. I did the math after all. I take no responsibility for any boats missed, or any flaming crashes. I'm innocent.

King Assassin wrote:

Wait nvm i see what ive done lmao. Ive been adding up the bottom price change thinking it was on a week to week basis *Facepalm*

Haha I did that for a bit, was a shock when I realised how many bad decisions I'd made based on that error!

Nrl physio:

Tevita Pangai will miss at least a few more weeks as he continues to rehab a calf issue. Initially expected to return in Rd 4-5, TPJ required a trip to external rehab specialists to address ongoing/recurring calf strains he was suffering. Extended his rehab process

No TMM kind of fucks my trades this week. I need to trade in a half this week which is not convenient.