NRL Fantasy Fanatics



Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NRL Fantasy Fanatics

NRL Fantasy Fanatics - A place for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Virtual Sports / Super Coach and other Fantasy Sports

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    BCT05
    BCT05

    Posts : 5517
    Reputation : 2460
    Join date : 2020-03-19

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by BCT05 Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:03 am

    Snatchpato wrote:

    Presuming I'm correct (particularly the last point) @ynot is it possible to add a section which includes the pure average for each number of players played? Like I'd like to go into yafss and find out what is the average score for those who have played 10 players so I can also compare to that when evaluating my round progress (if that makes sense).

    That's already the Par Score graph that is on yaffs isn't it? Shows par score with and without captain for each number of players played so far
    easytiger
    easytiger
    Moderator

    NRL FF Survivor Champion : 2022
    Posts : 4597
    Reputation : 5722
    Join date : 2020-01-27
    Location : The Kingdom of the Lord of the Byes

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by easytiger Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:13 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    Presuming I'm correct (particularly the last point) @ynot is it possible to add a section which includes the pure average for each number of players played? Like I'd like to go into yafss and find out what is the average score for those who have played 10 players so I can also compare to that when evaluating my round progress (if that makes sense).

    Isn't that exactly what it does?
    Unless you're wanting the average across all 180,000+ teams? Which would probably grind any scraper to a halt.

    I don't see the lines as projections, so much as a real time view of what has happened.
    E.g
    Those with 10 players including captain have averaged 556.
    Those with 12 + C have averages out at 667, the difference being based on players played rather than any expectations on what your/my players may or may not score.

    Using the top 1k is a great metric to give you an idea whether you are ahead of the curve or behind.

    Back in the days of Steve Nicholls, he used to track scores into ranked groupings and to be honest it is rare if ever that the pack outperforms the top 1k as a whole - so I would suggest if you're ahead of the curve for your score/ players then generally you're in a good spot for rank improvement.

    One final caveat; points on the board are generally a bit better for predicting your rank movement (points in the bank).
    More players left give you more opportunity to jump, but also more opportunity to slip.
    If you're remaining players are high ownership, then where you are with regard to the yafss averages is probably a great indicator as you are mostly moving with the group.
    If you are full of pods, then anything could happen...

    TLDR: Yes, Camo you are ahead of the 1k curve
    multiple.scoregasms
    multiple.scoregasms
    Fanatic

    Posts : 10272
    Reputation : 7847
    Join date : 2015-10-29
    Age : 31

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:42 am

    In honour of the king returning I asked ChatGPT to explain why he is the greatest Raider of all time

    Spoiler:
    Welsh Mafia
    Welsh Mafia

    Posts : 2534
    Reputation : 1467
    Join date : 2021-02-27
    Age : 32
    Location : Christchurch

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Welsh Mafia Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:44 am

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
    www.footystatistics.com

    You are welcome

    Regular user of this site, but thanks mate haha.

    The official site still has him on 93 though?
    Camo123
    Camo123
    Fanatic

    Posts : 13168
    Reputation : 9519
    Join date : 2019-01-30

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Camo123 Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:46 am

    Welsh Mafia wrote:

    Regular user of this site, but thanks mate haha.

    The official site still has him on 93 though?

    The Thursday games haven’t been updating until lockout
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Fanatic

    Posts : 19477
    Reputation : 6801
    Join date : 2016-02-14
    Location : New Zealand

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:52 am

    Welsh Mafia wrote:

    Regular user of this site, but thanks mate haha.

    The official site still has him on 93 though?
    Updates generally pretty slow going through to the official site for some reason.

    Sorry mate the “you are welcome” comment came across a bit snarky
    The Goat Boys
    The Goat Boys

    Posts : 917
    Reputation : 762
    Join date : 2020-01-18
    Location : QLD

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by The Goat Boys Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:53 am

    12/C for 732 seems a little bit above par. Good to have runs on the board. Would love some thoughts on whether to play Carty or Boyd, leaning Boyd currently
    Cake Tiger
    Cake Tiger

    Posts : 1216
    Reputation : 1609
    Join date : 2015-11-11

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Cake Tiger Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:54 am

    Fun fact - 3 of the next 4 games for the Warriors are against teams they have already played this season.
    Snatchpato
    Snatchpato

    Posts : 9123
    Reputation : 7789
    Join date : 2020-06-28
    Age : 33
    Location : Gold Coast

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Snatchpato Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:55 am

    BCT05 wrote:

    That's already the Par Score graph that is on yaffs isn't it? Shows par score with and without captain for each number of players played so far

    easytiger wrote:

    Isn't that exactly what it does?
    I'm pretty sure those numbers refer to the value of the regression line at that point. For example only one team has had 15 play with captain (802) but the value of the line for 15c is 834 as it's just a projection based on all the other scores. So the value of 556 for 10c is not the average score for teams with 10c but rather the lines "prediction" of what a team with 10c would have scored, relative to other player amounts.

    Edit: look at the jumps between the players
    7 - 389
    8 - 445 (+56)
    9 - 501 (+56)
    10 - 556 (+55)
    11 - 612 (+56)

    These jumps are indicative of a linear regression rather than averages of each group.


    Last edited by Snatchpato on Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:59 am; edited 1 time in total
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Fanatic

    Posts : 19477
    Reputation : 6801
    Join date : 2016-02-14
    Location : New Zealand

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:56 am

    The Goat Boys wrote:12/C for 732 seems a little bit above par. Good to have runs on the board. Would love some thoughts on whether to play Carty or Boyd, leaning Boyd currently  
    Seems well above par. By about 60 odd according to yafss.

    Oh shoot that’s tough, I’d probably play Boyd and hope for some attacking returns? Carty could be anything at all
    Welsh Mafia
    Welsh Mafia

    Posts : 2534
    Reputation : 1467
    Join date : 2021-02-27
    Age : 32
    Location : Christchurch

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Welsh Mafia Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:58 am

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
    Updates generally pretty slow going through to the official site for some reason.

    Sorry mate the “you are welcome” comment came across a bit snarky

    Haha all good, thanks though!

    Ahh sweet, got it

    Cheers Smile
    Snatchpato
    Snatchpato

    Posts : 9123
    Reputation : 7789
    Join date : 2020-06-28
    Age : 33
    Location : Gold Coast

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Snatchpato Sun Apr 09, 2023 7:59 am

    The Goat Boys wrote:12/C for 732 seems a little bit above par. Good to have runs on the board. Would love some thoughts on whether to play Carty or Boyd, leaning Boyd currently  
    Id play Boyd. I'm going to the game this arvo so I'll give him a slap on the ass and a pep talk for ya.
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Fanatic

    Posts : 19477
    Reputation : 6801
    Join date : 2016-02-14
    Location : New Zealand

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:02 am

    Welsh Mafia wrote:

    Haha all good, thanks though!

    Ahh sweet, got it

    Cheers Smile
    As far as I know MTBs numbers have never been wrong when it comes to the final outcome.
    I wish Carrigan stayed at 51 so might pretend that one is wrong
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Liverpool_Bulldog
    Fanatic

    Posts : 19477
    Reputation : 6801
    Join date : 2016-02-14
    Location : New Zealand

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:07 am

    Has anything happened to the Eels lads over the last day or two?
    Is the party at risk?
    Honey Badger
    Honey Badger

    Posts : 2589
    Reputation : 873
    Join date : 2015-11-09
    Location : NZ

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Honey Badger Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:16 am

    Not sure how accurate this is but apparently Boyd has switched to the left to play alongside life long school friend Fifita, with Sexton on the right. Potentially Sexton will be the dominant kicker
    robelgordo
    robelgordo
    Fanatic

    Posts : 13062
    Reputation : 9616
    Join date : 2019-07-08
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by robelgordo Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:20 am

    Snatchpato wrote:


    I'm pretty sure those numbers refer to the value of the regression line at that point. For example only one team has had 15 play with captain (802) but the value of the line for 15c is 834 as it's just a projection based on all the other scores. So the value of 556 for 10c is not the average score for teams with 10c but rather the lines "prediction" of what a team with 10c would have scored, relative to other player amounts.

    Edit: look at the jumps between the players
    7 - 389
    8 - 445 (+56)
    9 - 501 (+56)
    10 - 556 (+55)
    11 - 612 (+56)

    These jumps are indicative of a linear regression rather than averages of each group.

    I agree.

    It’s not an average for each no. of players played, because it wouldn’t be a perfectly straight line
    Jele
    Jele

    NFL Fantasy L1 Champion : 2019
    NRL FF Survivor Champion : 2020
    Posts : 2449
    Reputation : 1354
    Join date : 2015-12-25

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by Jele Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:30 am

    Honey Badger wrote:Not sure how accurate this is but apparently Boyd has switched to the left to play alongside life long school friend Fifita, with Sexton on the right. Potentially Sexton will be the dominant kicker

    Could be. Left hand side not ideal for a right footed kicker…
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
    Fanatics Immortal

    Posts : 28355
    Reputation : 21010
    Join date : 2016-01-08

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by my tv broke Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:31 am

    Honey Badger wrote:Not sure how accurate this is but apparently Boyd has switched to the left to play alongside life long school friend Fifita, with Sexton on the right. Potentially Sexton will be the dominant kicker

    Found it in an AAP article.

    There was also another quote from Holbrook saying Sexton has a really good kicking game. Not great for Boyds long kicking being on the left.

    -

    "It is exciting to be back with Sexy. We had a couple of years in the (reserves) together," Boyd said.

    "I still feel as though I am going to take control of the team and lead the boys around but he's got to do his part as well."

    With Foran out, Boyd will move to the left side of the field where he will try and get second-rower David Fifita into space.

    -
    BCT05
    BCT05

    Posts : 5517
    Reputation : 2460
    Join date : 2020-03-19

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by BCT05 Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:34 am

    Snatchpato wrote:


    I'm pretty sure those numbers refer to the value of the regression line at that point. For example only one team has had 15 play with captain (802) but the value of the line for 15c is 834 as it's just a projection based on all the other scores. So the value of 556 for 10c is not the average score for teams with 10c but rather the lines "prediction" of what a team with 10c would have scored, relative to other player amounts.

    Edit: look at the jumps between the players
    7 - 389
    8 - 445 (+56)
    9 - 501 (+56)
    10 - 556 (+55)
    11 - 612 (+56)

    These jumps are indicative of a linear regression rather than averages of each group.

    Ah ok I see what you mean
    robelgordo
    robelgordo
    Fanatic

    Posts : 13062
    Reputation : 9616
    Join date : 2019-07-08
    Location : Sydney

    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes - Page 13 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 30 - Worst performance I've seen in Weekes

    Post by robelgordo Sun Apr 09, 2023 8:41 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    Found it in an AAP article.

    There was also another quote from Holbrook saying Sexton has a really good kicking game. Not great for Boyds long kicking being on the left.

    -

    "It is exciting to be back with Sexy. We had a couple of years in the (reserves) together," Boyd said.

    "I still feel as though I am going to take control of the team and lead the boys around but he's got to do his part as well."

    With Foran out, Boyd will move to the left side of the field where he will try and get second-rower David Fifita into space.

    -

    I’m looking forward to another 15-20 score in my 17

      Current date/time is Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:26 am