by Bethany_B Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:41 pm
Rabbits21 wrote:Just on some saying Tatola isn’t a good pick I just did some research…..
Tatola avg 44.8 at prop in games over 40mins for his career.
In games over 40mins but under 50mins avg is 43 for his career.
So that not too bad it’s not like there is only 3-4 points value there it’s looking like 8 points at worst if he gets 45mins.
The part you're missing is that Tatola's PPM dropped significantly in 2023. The four years before it was between 0.91 and 0.95ppm in each season, while in 2023 it dropped to 0.81.
In all five of those years, his average minutes were between 45 and 50, even removing all the games where he played less than 30 mins (e.g. his HIA-affected score of 1 in 1 minute in round 1 2023)
He is priced at 35 so has to average 45 to be worth having (or at least 43)
At his current PPM of 0.81, he would need to average 55 minutes a game to average 45, and if he gets 45 minutes as you think, he would average 36, so 1 point of value (LOL)
If he can get back to his past PPM of about 0.9, then he needs to average 50 minutes a game, which is still unlikely but at least somewhat feasible. At 45 minutes, he would average 40.5 points, so 5 points of value (not enough)
Even if he gets back to his past PPM of 0.9, he won't average enough. If he gets 45 minutes as you expect he will, his PPM would need to be at least 1, which is well beyond his best season.