NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Just thinking about the Round 1 Vegas jaunt and Allegiant Stadium;

I heard during the week that JD said that Souths so far haven't managed to find anywhere to train in Vegas for the lead-up - I assume they resolve this, but might suggest those 4 teams might be just a little underdone.

Allegiant Stadium will only be  63 metres wide (standard NRL stadium is 68m) and 96 metres end to end. That's a 752m2 reduction in playing area (about 11% smaller game area) - it's possible they may be able to eek out a couple of extra metres IF they feel it won't impact player safety...

But if it stays at those dimensions it's a pretty significant drop in playing area and it makes me wonder if it's going to really shift the games into quite a middle orientated grind fest as shifting it wide should be easier for defensive structures to combat.

That might be good for the likes of Haas, Carrigan, Murray et al, but not so good for OSBs and fullbacks; Teddy, Walsh, Turbo (I'd say Latrell, but he doesn't like big distance running anyway haha).

So maybe in that first week those OSBs get a slightly slower start than otherwise projected and the middle gets a bit more work (noting also the average high in March is 22 degrees in Vegas, compared with the usual Australian heat wave to start the season).

I'm not suggesting it should be cause to rule a player out (it's a long game after all), but it might help decide when split between two players?

Kris:

Add another Raider to the pile

Camo123 wrote:

Kris:

Add another Raider to the pile

I hope they let him play, then we'll know who actually has the fullback, centre and 5/8 spots on form.

Last mail I heard was that Kris would go back to FB, Weekes to 6 and Strange centre, but who knows with Ricky

Bethany_B wrote:

I hope they let him play, then we'll know who actually has the fullback, centre and 5/8 spots on form.

Last mail I heard was that Kris would go back to FB, Weekes to 6 and Strange centre, but who knows with Ricky

It would be weird for them not to now (pretty sure other players have been allowed the All Stars game to count as serving suspension? (Latrell in '22 springs to mind)

Great, like you say to get an insight into who starts on merit (albeit they will still be subject to Stuarts whims)

I'd be happier to see Kris at Centre - probably a good 7+ points of upside historically (in a troublesome position)

Bethany_B wrote:

I hope they let him play, then we'll know who actually has the fullback, centre and 5/8 spots on form.

Last mail I heard was that Kris would go back to FB, Weekes to 6 and Strange centre, but who knows with Ricky

did the raiders even watch weekes play in 2023 & if so how on earth did they think he was worth a contract the guy is useless

White Lightning wrote:

did the raiders even watch weekes play in 2023 & if so how on earth did they think he was worth a contract the guy is useless

If they watched his reserve grade games, he played great.

I get the feeling he just didn't know what his role was when playing in a team with DCE and Turbo dominating all the possession and opportunities. In lower grades he was the key playmaker, scoring tonnes of tries and assists.

Other players that have been used to a big role in lower grades, but have tended to shy away from their natural game in a full strength NRL side recently, include:
- Terrell May - at the start of last season was just playing a small supporting role, but he found his natural game again by the end of the season, dominating his last game as the best forward on the field
- Stefano - at the end of 2021, Tigers were short on their key forwards, he really stepped up to fill their shoes. Goes missing when the big name players are around him.

I expect that Weekes will be a guy that steps up at Raiders. He's not the first guy to look like he goes missing when DCE dominates the game. A very different story when the most experienced guy in the spine is Fogarty, he can take the step up like he did in reserve grade.

Kudos to matt for always coming up with new ways to defend his love children

Some highlights from last season for Weekes:

Preseason challenge vs Roosters - 64 points. Note that neither DCE or Turbo were playing and he dominated with 3 try assists.

In the Finals of reserve grade, week 1 he scored 2 tries, scoring 66 fantasy points.

Round 21 - 1 try, 213 run meters, 52 points
Round 18 - 1 try, 9 TBs, 75 points
Round 10 - 1 try, 59 points
Round 8 - 40 points

Note that he only had about 3 other reserve grade games (plus one where he was injured), scoring in the 20s and 30s in each. He is a talented guy that can score well in fantasy, who has taken the perfect opportunity at a rebuilding club, where he can be a key play maker.

Given he is over 40% ownership, if he starts at 6, it could be pretty disastrous not to start with him if he puts a couple of good games up early, as he could be averaging well into the 40s and 50s, like he did last season in games without DCE and Turbo playing.

Also worth noting that I had him in the game where everyone was complaining about his first half defence at 6. He made lots of tackles, as they were targeting him and still had a 20 point half.

mattnz wrote:Some highlights from last season for Weekes:

Preseason challenge vs Roosters - 64 points. Note that neither DCE or Turbo were playing and he dominated with 3 try assists.

In the Finals of reserve grade, week 1 he scored 2 tries, scoring 66 fantasy points.

Round 21 - 1 try, 213 run meters, 52 points
Round 18 - 1 try, 9 TBs, 75 points
Round 10 - 1 try, 59 points
Round 8 - 40 points

Note that he only had about 3 other reserve grade games (plus one where he was injured), scoring in the 20s and 30s in each. He is a talented guy that can score well in fantasy, who has taken the perfect opportunity at a rebuilding club, where he can be a key play maker.

Given he is over 40% ownership, if he starts at 6, it could be pretty disastrous not to start with him if he puts a couple of good games up early, as he could be averaging well into the 40s and 50s, like he did last season in games without DCE and Turbo playing.

Also worth noting that I had him in the game where everyone was complaining about his first half defence at 6. He made lots of tackles, as they were targeting him and still had a 20 point half.

If you are focusing on reserve grade, why are you not looking at Ethan Strange’s hat trick in U19 Origin.

Both Stewart and Strange are U19 Origin players in 2023 and were the main starters in NSW cup for Raiders so it’s not like they’ve come out of nowhere

Also this bold take belongs on the surface of the sun it’s that hot. You think Kaeo Weekes is going to average similar to Munster

Camo123 wrote:

If you are focusing on reserve grade, why are you not looking at Ethan Strange’s hat trick in U19 Origin.

Both Stewart and Strange are U19 Origin players in 2023 and were the main starters in NSW cup for Raiders so it’s not like they’ve come out of nowhere

Also this bold take belongs on the surface of the sun it’s that hot

In 9 games without DCE and Turbo playing last season, he scored over 50 in 5 of them, including 2 60+ and a 70+. A hot start to the season can easily be in the 40s and 50s for him.

Strange wasnt the topic of conversation. If Stewart, Strange and Weekes all get starting spots, I would have all of them in my team, along with Fogarty.

mattnz wrote:

In 9 games without DCE and Turbo playing last season, he scored over 50 in 5 of them, including 2 60+ and a 70+. A hot start to the season can easily be in the 40s and 50s for him.

Strange wasnt the topic of conversation. If Stewart, Strange and Weekes all get starting spots, I would have all of them in my team, along with Fogarty.

Only max 2 of Stewart, Strange and Weekes will start, even moreso if Kris is available R1

Raiders, Tigers, Cowboys, Dragons - 4 worst backlines in 2024.

I'll take a basement cheapie if I have to, but will otherwise try and avoid.

L-Jimmy wrote:Raiders, Tigers, Cowboys, Dragons - 4 worst backlines in 2024.

I'll take a basement cheapie if I have to, but will otherwise try and avoid.

For clarification, are they "Bottom 4 Teams" or "Bottom 5 Teams"? I vote for adding Souths to that list

Happy new year fanatics!
Not too long to go now and I’m opening up the app to have a play.
Looks like it’s going to be Raiders roulette early on, could have potentially thrown Tigers into the mix if not for their R1 bye.
I carried a dragon last year as a loop play, didn’t pick the right one and got BMM who was a real plodder bottom dollar bum so really set me back at the start.
Wondering if I roll the dice again, those that picked Sloan for similar price were rewarded, will have to watch the Tigers trials closely to see if there’s anyone worth the risk.
I want to thank the creators of the Fantasy stats site and Yaffs, I wouldn’t have known these places existed if I hadn’t found this place so greatly appreciated.
Looking forward to this season, and I won’t make the mistake of not registering for the fanatics league this year!
Also, I can’t find the kid who replaced Paps in the last game and tore it up in the App?
Seems that there may be a fair few players still not on, is that normal?

There are so many examples of players - particularly in the spine - dominating lower grades and not being able to step up.

Almost like NRL is a vastly higher standard than NSWRL or something.

Genderbender wrote:Happy new year fanatics!
Not too long to go now and I’m opening up the app to have a play.
Looks like it’s going to be Raiders roulette early on, could have potentially thrown Tigers into the mix if not for their R1 bye.
I carried a dragon last year as a loop play, didn’t pick the right one and got BMM who was a real plodder bottom dollar bum so really set me back at the start.
Wondering if I roll the dice again, those that picked Sloan for similar price were rewarded, will have to watch the Tigers trials closely to see if there’s anyone worth the risk.
I want to thank the creators of the Fantasy stats site and Yaffs, I wouldn’t have known these places existed if I hadn’t found this place so greatly appreciated.
Looking forward to this season, and I won’t make the mistake of not registering for the fanatics league this year!
Also, I can’t find the kid who replaced Paps in the last game and tore it up in the App?
Seems that there may be a fair few players still not on, is that normal?

The development-contract players in each squad (e.g. the Storm's Sualuavi Faalogo) will be added in early February. (In the help noticeboard)

Given they priced a lot of 1 game players without discount, Faalogo could be 700k lol. Papenhuyzen should be fit in R1

Camo123 wrote:

The development-contract players in each squad (e.g. the Storm's Sualuavi Faalogo) will be added in early February. (In the help noticeboard)

Given they priced a lot of 1 game players without discount, Faalogo could be 700k lol. Papenhuyzen should be fit in R1

Thanks Camo, happy new year to you buddy!
Your bye help for the forum is second to none, along with everything else you provide.
Hope the luck swings your way this season, you deserve it!

For some perspective on the scoring of 6s next to DCE, (and also impacted by Turbo being the other key play maker when not injured), we have the following averages (games over 60 minutes):

Blake Green 28 - has had seasons averaging 40 in the halves at other clubs
Dylan Walker 31 - has had seasons averaging 45 at CTR
Croker 22 - averaged 44 at HOK
Foran 31 - has had seasons averaging 45 elsewhere in the halves
Schuster 32 - Has had a much higher average at EDG
Cooper Johns 19 - 32 average at Storm

Its really a shit position that scores very badly, with none of his halves partners averaging more than 32 during his career, despite scoring much higher in other positions or at other clubs. The odds of someone doing badly as Manly 6, but scoring well at another club are very high.

Genderbender wrote:
Seems that there may be a fair few players still not on, is that normal?

Sua Fa'alogo is in the Storm's top 30 so theoretically he should be available. Guess you might have to wait until he is named in a squad

Wouldn't expect him to be cheap given his average last year was 51, and Fanhub are stingy with the discounts these days.

Milchcow wrote:

Sua Fa'alogo is in the Storm's top 30 so theoretically he should be available. Guess you might have to wait until he is named in a squad

Wouldn't expect him to be cheap given his average last year was 51, and Fanhub are stingy with the discounts these days.

I thought he was, that’s why it didn’t make sense.
All good anyway, as you said he will probably be priced at something so ridiculous it would be irrelevant.
Xerri priced around 33 after not playing 4 years I won’t get my head around.
Happy new year Milch!