NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

mattnz wrote:

Hopgood averaged 34 minutes in 2021 and 37 minutes in 2022, in line with my expectation for Henry at 33.

The big difference is the PPM. Henry scored at 1.1 in just 23 minutes last season and keeps that up in reserve grade with much bigger minutes - 62 points in 58 minute average last season.

You said Hopgood was the comparison. Not sure that's true, but anyway we compared Henry's possible.output with Hopgood's Penrith NRL seasons (where he also had great NSW Cup scores... from memory better than Henry's).

When that comparison doesn't give a high enough score, you decide that Hopgood isn't the comparison, the comparison is Hopgood only with a better PPM...?

(Also, you might want to take out Hopgood's lock game when Penrith rested their entire team when you're calculating his bench minutes)

Camo123 wrote:

If we assume it’s a matter of when and not if Turbo gets injured I wonder if Garrick or Koula is now the backup FB after Koula last 2 games

The 104 for Garrick clearly looks like outlier with his other 20s scores at CTR

It is in line with his scoring at wing:
- With Turbo playing - 43 average
- Without Turbo playing - 29 average

He is going to score much higher at CTR with Turbo playing. In the game where Garrick scored 104, Turbo set up all 3 tries for him and Garrick set up one of Turbo's tries.

Interestingly, Saab is the same:
- With Turbo playing - 33 average
- Without Turbo playing -23 average

rhinoceroo wrote:

You said Hopgood was the comparison. Not sure that's true, but anyway we compared Henry's possible.output with Hopgood's Penrith NRL seasons (where he also had great NSW Cup scores... from memory better than Henry's).

When that comparison doesn't give a high enough score, you decide that Hopgood isn't the comparison, the comparison is Hopgood only with a better PPM...?

(Also, you might want to take out Hopgood's lock game when Penrith rested their entire team when you're calculating his bench minutes)

You are just being obtuse, the whole conversation has been on minutes, Hopgood 34 and 37 minutes for Penrith. Smith 40 minutes last season.

Henry is a similar player and very capable of playing the 33 minutes that Leniu played last season at high PPM, as shown by both NRL and reserve grade stats.

Penrith rest players every season and key players are in Origin.

Time to quit being an ass for no reason.

mattnz wrote:

You are just being obtuse, the whole conversation has been on minutes, Hopgood 34 and 37 minutes for Penrith. Smith 40 minutes last season.

Henry is a similar player and very capable of playing the 33 minutes that Leniu played last season at high PPM, as shown by both NRL and reserve grade stats.

Penrith rest players every season.

Time to quit being an ass for no reason.

Is it obtuse to say you've got your numbers wrong? Hopgood averaged 27 minutes off the bench in 2022 and 36 in 2021. As you say, the conversation is about the minutes, so start in the right place and take out the lock games that Henry won't be getting unless Yeo gets rested early in the season.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Is it obtuse to say you've got your numbers wrong? Hopgood averaged 27 minutes off the bench in 2022 and 36 in 2021. As you say, the conversation is about the minutes, so start in the right place and take out the lock games that Henry won't be getting unless Yeo gets rested early in the season.

Yeo will play Origin

mattnz wrote:

Yeo will play Origin

Henry could be a good pickup for the bye period depending on his price then, I agree. Was that the conversation? Thought you were talking about starting with him.

Noone is buying Henry just for the 3 times a year Yeo gets rested.

Barring injury he'd be at best their 4th choice middle. Every year people get excited by high PPM players with low minutes, and it rarely works out.

Ah we're reached that time of year where we have tedious arguments over 15-20 minute bench forwards. 

High ppm bench middle? That always goes well. Sign me up!

Seriously though,  if he was base price might be worth a shout. Not with a BE of 23. Sounds like the Bulldogs guy is the better buy. I had MKing and Preston.  Would want to see plenty of involvement in trials.

So we’ve reached the stage of the preseason where someone is gonna buy a 639k CTR based on a sample size of 1 game alongside a particular FB?

Are there trials this weekend? Please let there be trials

robelgordo wrote:So we’ve reached the stage of the preseason where someone is gonna buy a 639k CTR based on a sample size of 1 game alongside a particular FB?

Are there trials this weekend? Please let there be trials

And if the argument is he plays better with Turbo (43 v 29 on wing) Garricks 3 game average at CTR without Turbo is 24

So we going for a bump to 40? That way he’s only overpriced by 6-7 points.

mattnz wrote:
Henry is... going to be the next Hopgood.

mattnz wrote:
Henry is like Smith and Hopgood, averages 60+ in NSW cup.

My question is, in what way is he actually like Smith and Hopgood? similar NSW cup scores? because Smith and Hopgood are quite different players from each other.

mattnz wrote:
The better comparison is Smith's season just gone, where he got an average of 40 minutes. He is a much more similar player, capable of big minutes.

I agree that he looks very capable of big minutes.
He is also two years younger than Smith.
In the first 10 rounds of last year (9 games that Penrith played) Lindsay Smith averaged.... 17.9 minutes - because it's a struggle to get even a bench spot at the Panthers

Similar starting price and made $56k over that first 10 weeks

mattnz wrote:
I agree, Smith will get Smiths role.

As above, Smiths role you're referring to was a late season role.
A 3 game rookie doesn't tend to start with big minutes - I think the one exception I can recall is Payne Haas but he's a generational talent.

Liam Henry does look good from what I've seen, I think the general thing people are trying to express is that it might be worth cooling your jets a little. His ceiling potential isn't the same as what he likely gets...

Penrith have big minute middles in Yeo, JFH. Moses Leota is capably 40-47 minutes, Lindsay Smith as you say can play big minutes. Matt Eisenhuth can plod his way to big minutes and has a truck load of first grade experience.

Henry looks capable, Penrith have the luxury of bringing on his development at a pace they choose

robelgordo wrote:

And if the argument is he plays better with Turbo (43 v 29 on wing) Garricks 3 game average at CTR without Turbo is 24

So we going for a bump to 40? That way he’s only overpriced by 6-7 points.

A BE of 46? how big an upside would one expect from a Centre playing Centre priced mid 40's?

That would definitely be a balls-to-the-wall selection - Good luck to anyone brave enough to take that gamble

A bit late to preseason this year but just catching up on the thread it doesn't look like i've missed much!
One thing i'm going to do differently this season is not start with two cheap ctrs for the sake of starting with two cheap ctrs. The only cheap ctr I like at the moment is Iro and he probably wont get a start. The "gun" ctrs I like the look of are Penisini, Cobbo or Kiraz if he gets dual.
In saying that though, if Talau gets the left wing spot for Manly that isn't the worse place to be ha ha.

If Tommy Talau gets a wing spot at Manly then I'm not ruling him out either.
Even if he has career scores of 0, 1 and 7 on the wing

Not at his price and not in a team that actually knows how to create tries for their wings

I think I'll be starting with cheap centres like I usually do. Unless a forward with centre dual pops up, or a regular centre gets goal kicking they didn't previously have.

Kiraz, Cobbo and Penisi, like pretty much all centres, have 80 minutes scores in the teens and twenties. Too much risk that they start the year with a couple of those.

easytiger wrote:If Tommy Talau gets a wing spot at Manly then I'm not ruling him out either.
Even if he has career scores of 0, 1 and 7 on the wing

Not at his price and not in a team that actually knows how to create tries for their wings

Yeah Talau is a possibility. I was dead set against him last year but new team, new role. Especially if Turbo is fit, loves a 3 on 2 on the left edge.

Lachlan Galvin apparently the front runner for the 5/8 role at the Tigers.

Alfie wrote:Lachlan Galvin apparently the front runner for the 5/8 role at the Tigers.

Sounds like a front runner for my reserves.