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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:13 am


    It just seems so strange that the NRL would organise international flights for 4 of its teams, and then decide one of them would get an objectively better flight schedule for "reasons"

    I know the NRL makes random decisions all the time, and in the scheme of things not everything is vitally important. but how hard is it to pretend to treat clubs equally.
    my tv broke
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:28 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    It just seems so strange that the NRL would organise international flights for 4 of its teams, and then decide one of them would get an objectively better flight schedule for "reasons"

    I know the NRL makes random decisions all the time, and in the scheme of things not everything is vitally important. but how hard is it to pretend to treat clubs equally.


    They could have had Rusty Crowe draw it out of a hat on live TV and souths fans would still claim it was rigged
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:31 am

    Alfie wrote:

    Welcome back!

    Surprisingly compelling case put forward there. Interesting that Billy coming in coincided with a 5 game streak and that they lost more games than won with Suaali’i there.

    The flip side of that is that the 5 game win streak coincided with Sualii taking the wing spot.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:35 am

    Those aiming to determine how the Panthers will structure their forward pack ahead of Round 1 will just get one opportunity as they are not playing trials - just the World Club Challenge
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    Post by Alfie Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:36 am

    mattnz wrote:

    The flip side of that is that the 5 game win streak coincided with Sualii taking the wing spot.

    Would you alienate a club legend for little to no upside? Are the Roosters anymore of a premiership threat with Suaali’i on the wing over Tupou? Or do you think the new recruit Young languishes in reserve grade for a year?
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:39 am

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:Those aiming to determine how the Panthers will structure their forward pack ahead of Round 1 will just get one opportunity as they are not playing trials - just the World Club Challenge

    Who is of interest in Panthers forward pack besides MattNZ’s love affair of Henry

    Pretty much guaranteed same starters from last year with only a few bench spots up for grabs
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:45 am

    Alfie wrote:

    Would you alienate a club legend for little to no upside? Are the Roosters anymore of a premiership threat with Suaali’i on the wing over Tupou? Or do you think the new recruit Young languishes in reserve grade for a year?

    Hehe - I have been doing this in private for years but it might be time to share the fun

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    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:47 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Who is of interest in Panthers forward pack besides MattNZ’s love affair of Henry

    Pretty much guaranteed same starters from last year with only a few bench spots up for grabs

    I think Gender was suggesting that Garner may start, with Sorensen playing MID off the bench
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    Post by Alfie Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:49 am

    No chance it happens, but it’d be nice if the Roosters loaned Suaali’i out for the year to the Dragons or something. Robert Toia and Junior Pauga are pretty handy cover, could upgrade another junior. They’re still in the premiership hunt though so it would be counterproductive of course.
    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:53 am

    I like MattNZ’s takes though. He generates more discussion than anyone on here. It’s so much funner to disagree than agree too haha.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:13 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    Will be all over him when he returns and gets CTR DPP but obviously not going to buy him for first 2 suspended games


    Nice, didn't realise it was a 3 game suspension.

    So, with the phins on a R3 bye that means I'll start with HTF and hope he cashes in against the Cowboys and Dragons, then have the option of taking some cash down to Jack if HTF looks cold.

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    Post by mattnz Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:16 am

    L-Jimmy wrote:


    Nice, didn't realise it was a 3 game suspension.

    So, with the phins on a R3 bye that means I'll start with HTF and hope he cashes in against the Cowboys and Dragons, then have the option of taking some cash down to Jack if HTF looks cold.


    Wighton wont start the season as a CTR, just HLF
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:21 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Wighton wont start the season as a CTR, just HLF

    There is a slight chance he gets DPP based off last year when 3 non-starters got MID DPP (including 2 that weren’t named)
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:25 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Wighton wont start the season as a CTR, just HLF

    Madness. Souths say he's CTR since signing him, but nrl.com have left his profile as a 5/8 hahaha

    Think he could still be worth it (value is value, position secondary) but annoying he won't get DPP until R7.

    I guess this also explains dumb stuff like Boyd and Hopgood still being DPP, and Kiraz not.
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:12 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Barry Toohey, who is normally fairly reliable for Knights news suggested they would split time to start the season.

    But Brailey has basically never been subbed as a knight except due to injury, so I would expect if he gets back to full fitness he'd play 80 minutes a lot. Too risky to start the season with though I think

    You know I've always been a Milchcow-stan, but I;m leaning towards Brails as my starting Hooker.
    Just a gut-feel, but I'm interested in your reasoning O' wise one.
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    Alfie
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    Post by Alfie Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:15 am

    Assuming a player averages 10 points above their price - assuming also they score the same score every week for simplicity - how long would it take them to peak?
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:25 am

    Aardvark wrote:Haas is good at fantasy scoring. The one season I didn't start with him in the last five (2022) I had my worst finish in 12 years.

    I'll probably be under thinking it and starting with Haas again.

    Absolutely agree with this.
    The one time I didn't start with Haas (saving money for other positons) it took me 10 rounds to build the bank to get him, and by then it was all over red-rover.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:42 am

    The Bludger#2 wrote:

    Absolutely agree with this.
    The one time I didn't start with Haas (saving money for other positons) it took me 10 rounds to build the bank to get him, and by then it was all over red-rover.

    I went back and had a look, and I've started with Haas every season that he's been available in round 1 (2020, 2022, 2023). In 2021 I didn't start with him, however he was out until round 4 and I ended up buying in round 11.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:54 am

    Alfie wrote:Assuming a player averages 10 points above their price - assuming also they score the same score every week for simplicity - how long would it take them to peak?

    Tough question to answer, because even if they score the same every week, the price rises take ages to max out. Its just that the last few weeks will be rises if $1-2k each
    I'd say 8 weeks is close enough, but even then weeks 7 and 8 aren't huge rises

    So when do you decide when a player has "maxxed out"
    Realistically its not just maxxing the price of the player you are trading out, but minimising the price of the player you are trading in. No point holding on for a week to grab $10k of price rises from 1 guy if your target rises $20k the same week.

    Anyway here's a bit of a graph of how a consistent $230k player will rise in price scoring 27 every week

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    Aardvark
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    Post by Aardvark Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:06 am

    robelgordo wrote:

    Madness. Souths say he's CTR since signing him, but nrl.com have left his profile as a 5/8 hahaha

    Think he could still be worth it (value is value, position secondary) but annoying he won't get DPP until R7.

    I guess this also explains dumb stuff like Boyd and Hopgood still being DPP, and Kiraz not.

    There is always this, which often results in false hope but could come through with the goods if Wighton is named CTR RD1

    3 - Dual-Position Player (DPP) Updates:

    Secondary position updates are scheduled after the Tuesday team lists drop for:
    - Round 1
    - Round 7
    - Round 14
    - Round 21


    P.S. I do like it when they let the status quo rumble on, like with Hopgood


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