NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

Milchcow wrote:

Tough question to answer, because even if they score the same every week, the price rises take ages to max out. Its just that the last few weeks will be rises if $1-2k each
I'd say 8 weeks is close enough, but even then weeks 7 and 8 aren't huge rises

So when do you decide when a player has "maxxed out"
Realistically its not just maxxing the price of the player you are trading out, but minimising the price of the player you are trading in. No point holding on for a week to grab $10k of price rises from 1 guy if your target rises $20k the same week.

Anyway here's a bit of a graph of how a consistent $230k player will rise in price scoring 27 every week

Beauuutiful, thanks Milch.

Milchcow wrote:

Tough question to answer, because even if they score the same every week, the price rises take ages to max out. Its just that the last few weeks will be rises if $1-2k each
I'd say 8 weeks is close enough, but even then weeks 7 and 8 aren't huge rises

So when do you decide when a player has "maxxed out"
Realistically its not just maxxing the price of the player you are trading out, but minimising the price of the player you are trading in. No point holding on for a week to grab $10k of price rises from 1 guy if your target rises $20k the same week.

Anyway here's a bit of a graph of how a consistent $230k player will rise in price scoring 27 every week

Great stuff.

It really depends on the difference between the starting price and the final price, because this tells you how big the steps are - and hence how much cash is being generated.

So, if your 230k rookie is averaging 55 a game, their final price will be 770k. Milchy's graph will have the same slow-down shape as it approaches the final price, but the early stages will be much steeper. You'd probably also keep them.

Assuming 10 points a game doesn't really simplify the problem too much, because a 230k rookie scoring 26 points will end up at 364k, or over 50% above starting price. This implies a higher early rate of increase than a 750k gun scoring at 850k, where the proportional increase is only 13.3%, and so the increase steps are much smaller.

So in practice a wait-and-see approach could be wise, where you focus on the player's role in your final team, the purchase options available, and pro-actively react to poor scores (sell fast) and high scores (keep longer).

That's because the formula for price changes is, and I'll re-post the equation if I can find it, a simple weighted 5-game moving average. This means that only the most recent 5 games impact the players price, and the more recent games have a much greater impact than the older games.

my tv broke wrote:
They could have had Rusty Crowe draw it out of a hat on live TV and souths fans would still claim it was rigged

My point is why even have different flight in the first place.
Just give all clubs the same arrangements - why create 1 bonus, super flight and then have a need to decide which club gets to be on it.

Either make clubs sort themselves out, and the best organised club wins. Or get the NRL to organise it and give all the clubs the same deal.

Milchcow wrote:

Tough question to answer, because even if they score the same every week, the price rises take ages to max out. Its just that the last few weeks will be rises if $1-2k each
I'd say 8 weeks is close enough, but even then weeks 7 and 8 aren't huge rises

So when do you decide when a player has "maxxed out"
Realistically its not just maxxing the price of the player you are trading out, but minimising the price of the player you are trading in. No point holding on for a week to grab $10k of price rises from 1 guy if your target rises $20k the same week.

Anyway here's a bit of a graph of how a consistent $230k player will rise in price scoring 27 every week

This is one of the areas that Booze excels. Not afraid to jump off a guy that still has 30-50k left in him if it means grabbing one that is gonna make 200k

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Milchcow wrote:

Barry Toohey, who is normally fairly reliable for Knights news suggested they would split time to start the season.

But Brailey has basically never been subbed as a knight except due to injury, so I would expect if he gets back to full fitness he'd play 80 minutes a lot. Too risky to start the season with though I think

You know I've always been a Milchcow-stan, but I;m leaning towards Brails as my starting Hooker.
Just a gut-feel, but I'm interested in your reasoning O' wise one.

Just too much risk.

Brailey is a pretty cheap for a guy with a career average of 50+ over multiple seasons. So that is a point in his favour.

But he's had multiple long term injuries in recent years, so there's just no guarantee he's going to come back the same player. Will definitely be keeping an eye on him though.

You won't be able to predict minutes based solely off round 1 teams either, as Crossland is certainly going to be on the bench. Just won't know what his exact minutes/role are

Milchcow wrote:

My point is why even have different flight in the first place.
Just give all clubs the same arrangements - why create 1 bonus, super flight and then have a need to decide which club gets to be on it.

Either make clubs sort themselves out, and the best organised club wins. Or get the NRL to organise it and give all the clubs the same deal.

If the clubs had to sort themselves out Manly would be flying economy and sleeping in a hostel

Everyone should have been on the same flight and the same hotel

my tv broke wrote:

Probably logistically very difficult? Cost vs availability etc. Each club is going to fly 25-30 players/staff over I would think. That's a lot of people trying to get business class seats all on or around the same day.

Just guessing, dont really know the configs of those flights. Not sure how many Sydney to LA flights there are per day, a couple ? And obviously the Broncos will not fly out of Sydney.

I just had a quick Google and there seems to be 5 flights a day from SYD-LAX. Two by Delta, one each by United, American and Qantas. Thursdays have an additional Qantas flight to make it six.

Milchcow wrote:

Just too much risk.

Brailey is a pretty cheap for a guy with a career average of 50+ over multiple seasons. So that is a point in his favour.

But he's had multiple long term injuries in recent years, so there's just no guarantee he's going to come back the same player. Will definitely be keeping an eye on him though.

You won't be able to predict minutes based solely off round 1 teams either, as Crossland is certainly going to be on the bench. Just won't know what his exact minutes/role are

Cheers. So maybe it will be a pivot to JMK as starting hooker.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Cheers. So maybe it will be a pivot to JMK as starting hooker.

Depends who gets the 5/8 spot for the Phins. If it's not Nikorima, then JMK is a huge no go as Niko would almost certainly play 14 in that instance.

Something to watch out for but I think it's more likely to be Nikorima at 6 and either Stone or Donoghoe as the 14.

Just throwing names / ideas around to get a picture of building a team with Chin / Haas.
Problem is I've got 4 Raiders (including the 3 cheapies pencilled in).
And, 3 Dolphins??

Bye round issues aplenty right there.

Bethany_B wrote:

Depends who gets the 5/8 spot for the Phins. If it's not Nikorima, then JMK is a huge no go as Niko would almost certainly play 14 in that instance.

Something to watch out for but I think it's more likely to be Nikorima at 6 and either Stone or Donoghoe as the 14.

Here's my (extremely) rough draft - pre-pre-pre TLT.

JMK
Haas / Palasia / Gilbert
Piakura / Angus
Chin / Fog-god
Russell / Strange
Weekes / Hammer / Papy
Willison
Tatola
Lussick (or Hands)
Curran
Flanno
Chevy Stewart
Iro
Arthurs

Yes, I know the Centres are trash. Yes, i know Pappy is currently injured.

Bethany_B wrote:

my tv broke wrote:

Probably logistically very difficult? Cost vs availability etc. Each club is going to fly 25-30 players/staff over I would think. That's a lot of people trying to get business class seats all on or around the same day.

Just guessing, dont really know the configs of those flights. Not sure how many Sydney to LA flights there are per day, a couple ? And obviously the Broncos will not fly out of Sydney.

I just had a quick Google and there seems to be 5 flights a day from SYD-LAX. Two by Delta, one each by United, American and Qantas. Thursdays have an additional Qantas flight to make it six.

Non Roosters clubs are flying via Fiji, not direct to LA

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Here's my (extremely) rough draft - pre-pre-pre TLT.

JMK
Haas / Palasia / Gilbert
Piakura / Angus
Chin / Fog-god
Russell / Strange
Weekes / Hammer / Papy
Willison
Tatola
Lussick (or Hands)
Curran
Flanno
Chevy Stewart
Iro
Arthurs

Yes, I know the Centres are trash. Yes, i know Pappy is currently injured.

Decent looking team, though I have a few critiques

* Palasia almost certainly won't get enough minutes to be relevant. Both edge players will play 80 (Fermor and Fifita) and there are already two big minute middles (Tino and Moe), so there's not a whole left to go around between Palasia, Jolliffe and 2-4 more middles (They could run a 4 middle bench if one of them is Clark or Randall)

* I don't see the upside in Gilbert, he's a known quantity and not quite keeper level at MID. Fun to watch though.

* As someone who owned Russell for far too long last year, please don't do that to yourself. He has horrible base and not enough upside to justify it. If you must pick someone in that price range, get someone like Reimis Smith who has at least a little base.

* Strange is very likely to be out of the team in round 2 when Kris is back. That said, if he gets the 5/8 spot ahead of Kaeo Weekes he'll be 100% owned. At this point, it seems that it's between those two for the spot so you can't really own both of them.

* Papy is an easy pick, and if he isn't fit you get an even better pick with Sua Fa'alogo

* As much as the Amateurs would like it to happen, Iro will not be pushing Talakai out of centre anytime soon, so don't plan for that.

Seems like for sponsorship reasons they had to go through Nadi, but probably only enough flights/seats for 3 teams.

So the Roosters being the most luxurious team got the luxury flight i.e. the one the sponsors couldn't provide at a discount.

Having said that, maybe their flight is later so they actually have the benefits of a direct flight negated by less time on the ground. Probably not though.

Ultimately I can't imagine anyone seriously cares.

Crowe could've chartered a private jet for Souffs, or at least the senior players!

Bethany_B wrote:

Decent looking team, though I have a few critiques

* Palasia almost certainly won't get enough minutes to be relevant. Both edge players will play 80 (Fermor and Fifita) and there are already two big minute middles (Tino and Moe), so there's not a whole left to go around between Palasia, Jolliffe and 2-4 more middles (They could run a 4 middle bench if one of them is Clark or Randall)

* I don't see the upside in Gilbert, he's a known quantity and not quite keeper level at MID. Fun to watch though.

* As someone who owned Russell for far too long last year, please don't do that to yourself. He has horrible base and not enough upside to justify it. If you must pick someone in that price range, get someone like Reimis Smith who has at least a little base.

* Strange is very likely to be out of the team in round 2 when Kris is back. That said, if he gets the 5/8 spot ahead of Kaeo Weekes he'll be 100% owned. At this point, it seems that it's between those two for the spot so you can't really own both of them.

* Papy is an easy pick, and if he isn't fit you get an even better pick with Sua Fa'alogo

* As much as the Amateurs would like it to happen, Iro will not be pushing Talakai out of centre anytime soon, so don't plan for that.

Thanks for the feedback on the draft team - I'll kick a few of the placeholders to the curb.
Russell being one.
Maybe Glibert gets downgraded so I can insert a strong centre along with a cheapie / cow.
The Weekes / Strange / Stewart picks are to keep them in my mind. I'm assuming only 1 will be viable.
Any thoughts on Jenkins as a WFB option, replacing Dom?

Alfie wrote:Assuming a player averages 10 points above their price - assuming also they score the same score every week for simplicity - how long would it take them to peak?

isn't it you're peaking until your b/e becomes too high & you bleed cash...you have peaked

Alfie wrote:Assuming a player averages 10 points above their price - assuming also they score the same score every week for simplicity - how long would it take them to peak?

You guys all have Milchcow's price predictor right?

Here it is for those that don't:

https://www.mediafire.com/file/igbiexbhicaa473/Price+predictor.xlsx/file