NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

Mulvy wrote:

You guys all have Milchcow's price predictor right?

Here it is for those that don't:

https://www.mediafire.com/file/igbiexbhicaa473/Price+predictor.xlsx/file

Ooo, think I downloaded it at some point in my career and forgot about it. Cheers Mulvy and Milch

I put together this spreadsheet from last year (round 25) when I thought that prices carried over from one year to the next. This obviously isn't how it works, so didn't provide as much utility as I had thought it would, but is still useful in showing the movements of players over the year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gAVCvDr4WBkuBZV7T0WZQMrMXw6_LDtNX2modv11Qwk/edit?usp=sharing

It shows price changes throughout the year. I've broken it down into price week-to-week, price change week-to-week, and price change from R1-to-week. all colour coded.

Let me know if anyone has any questions as to what the data represents if I haven't been clear.

Much big ups to MTB for providing the data. Couldn't have done it without him.

An example of how the spreadsheet it formatted:



EDIT: As a note I sorted the columns to price change in round 14 while on Excel and havent been able to get OpenOffice spreadsheet to work with sorting with the formatting of the data at home. I should be able to get it to work, but am somewhat lazy.

Regarding Smithies, he's a family friend so I will try get info on his minutes before RD1

Ando wrote:Regarding Smithies, he's a family friend so I will try get info on his minutes before RD1

Ooo yes please, thank you sir. I think I'm the only one keen on him haha.

For Hooker chat I'm currently on Robson purely for the 80mins and hoping new NSW coach picks Cook. I like JMK but only if there is no bench utility.

As good as Brailey has been in the past, his injury record isn't great and the emergence of Crossland last season means they don't need to flog him week by week.

Alfie wrote:

Ooo yes please, thank you sir. I think I'm the only one keen on him haha.

I will be keen if he gets a big minute role, tackling machine. I like to say I taught him everything he knows

Ando wrote:

I will be keen if he gets a big minute role, tackling machine. I like to say I taught him everything he knows :P

Good enough for me. Welcome to the team Morgsie-lad!

On a podcast they likened Smithies aggressive style to Radley's he pushes the envelope so he's a wait & see for me. From what I've heard though he seems a very good player.

White Lightning wrote:On a podcast they likened Smithies aggressive style to Radley's he pushes the envelope so he's a wait & see for me. From what I've heard though he seems a very good player.

His first few years in SL he really pushed it and got a name for himself copping a couple of heavy suspensions. In 2023 in he really calmed it down and developed into a ball playing 13 who loves a 3rd man tackle (Fantasy Gold).

He will be value if he gets anything over 50 mins which if he starts you'd think he will.

I'll also have a word to remind him OFH's are worth 4 points haha.

Ando wrote:For Hooker chat I'm currently on Robson purely for the 80mins and hoping new NSW coach picks Cook. I like JMK but only if there is no bench utility.

As good as Brailey has been in the past, his injury record isn't great and the emergence of Crossland last season means they don't need to flog him week by week.  

Don’t want Grant mate?

Ando wrote:

His first few years in SL he really pushed it and got a name for himself copping a couple of heavy suspensions. In 2023 in he really calmed it down and developed into a ball playing 13 who loves a 3rd man tackle (Fantasy Gold).

He will be value if he gets anything over 50 mins which if he starts you'd think he will.

I'll also have a word to remind him OFH's are worth 4 points haha.  

Apparently his stats from Super League aren’t all that appealing low on tackle breaks less than one a game, low on offloads and low on metres gained

Alfie wrote:I like MattNZ’s takes though. He generates more discussion than anyone on here. It’s so much funner to disagree than agree too haha.

Dude - that's what MattNZ Bingo is all about - being aware of why you disagree can save pages and pages of less enjoyable discussion with fun and humour as an outcome

Quick "good oil" Roosters training report from people who've been watching it on the Roosters forum and elsewhere:

Wong and Crichton *both* training as the edges for the firsts, with Nat Butcher lock. This is complicated by Radley being away on paternity leave, so not much extra information there.

Suaalii training fullback, centre and wing, suggesting "first reserve" or even Black Widow role with Tupou, Smith, Manu, Young the starting 3/4s.

Ando wrote:

His first few years in SL he really pushed it and got a name for himself copping a couple of heavy suspensions. In 2023 in he really calmed it down and developed into a ball playing 13 who loves a 3rd man tackle (Fantasy Gold).

He will be value if he gets anything over 50 mins which if he starts you'd think he will.

I'll also have a word to remind him OFH's are worth 4 points haha.  

Even if named in Round 1, will he get 50 minutes when Horsburgh back? Tapine, Hors and Big Papi to feed. Whitehead might play some middle with Hosking around, and in addition Whitehead talked up Mariota and Mooney in an interview last week.

For all that the Raiders spine looks inexperienced and ropey, they still have a pretty strong pack.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Even if named in Round 1, will he get 50 minutes when Horsburgh back? Tapine, Hors and Big Papi to feed. Whitehead might play some middle with Hosking around, and in addition Whitehead talked up Mariota and Mooney in an interview last week.

For all that the Raiders spine looks inexperienced and ropey, they still have a pretty strong pack.

Ricky has shown he doesn't like to smash Tapine for big minutes, Papa is another year older and could easily drop his minutes similar to his QLD 2022 role so there is potential for Hors and Morg to pick up a bulk of the minutes especially as they will always run 2 hookers. I'm not saying he's nailed on for 80 mins but the value is there if he's getting 50+ minutes being priced at 38. Also he should get DPP and he plays first 2 byes rounds making him potentially be a good pick.

I will relay any info I get from him here.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Don’t want Grant mate?

Not to start mate. Starting team I try to avoid too many Origin guns and I have Chin and Haas locked in and currently Trbo who's a question mark.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Apparently his stats from Super League aren’t all that appealing low on tackle breaks less than one a game, low on offloads and low on metres gained

Worth noting here the big difference in how stats are recorded in Super League vs NRL when doing comparisons.
In Super League metres gained are calculated as metres gained past the advantage line (previous play the ball), whereas in NRL they’re calculated as all metres gained from where the player receives the ball, so all Super League players metres stats will look considerably lower than NRL ones due to this.

But, having said this, Smithies is very much a tackle bot type who will get the majority of this points from defensive work and little attacking stats, but the metres will be higher in NRL than he got in SL. The key part will just be how many minutes he gets and whether he’ll get enough to accumulate enough base stats.

my tv broke wrote:Speaking of flights to LA, booked Brisbane to LA at the end of the year this morning for 1349 return. Not bad. Do miss the days of ~$850 return being about standard.

LA is a shithole IMO but get tickets to a show at The Comedy Store. We had no idea who was performing but ended up being David Spade, Joey Diaz and Jeff Garlin. Remains the best comedy show I've ever seen

Alfie wrote:

Ooo yes please, thank you sir. I think I'm the only one keen on him haha.

If we knew he was playing 60 minutes a week I'd be all over him

I don't think the middle minutes are there with Tapine, Horse, Papalii so hoping he gets an edge from Whitehead

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

LA is a shithole IMO but get tickets to a show at The Comedy Store. We had no idea who was performing but ended up being David Spade, Joey Diaz and Jeff Garlin. Remains the best comedy show I've ever seen

I dont think I'll be spending any time in LA. Actually, maybe a night or two just to break up the travel. Heading south. Friend is getting married in Colombia. Probably do some other south american countries. Got a month over there. Never been east coast US either so theres a bit to figure out