NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 7 - Vegas, Baby

Snatchpato wrote:Also, based on whitehead comments, are we all locking in Smithies?

he was in my team before those comments but it's normal for team mates to be overly optimistic/exaggerate a little when talking about their team mates..."smithies is the 2nd coming of shawn fensom the fantasy legend" that's what whitehead really meant to say.

Loomer wrote:

What happens when Horse comes back?

horse to frf rotation

Okay so I'm pretty sure the only zig while everyone else is zagging thing I'm going to do to start the year is go with Api from round 1. This means I've got an awesome way to loop for the first round.

I'm curious as what people think about

a) me starting with Api (currently Cheese at HOK for R1) but more so

b) how I should be looping this round. I'm thinking of playing Wong at 18 with Api at 17. If Wong scores well, leave it. If Wong shits the bed, swap Shoes (19) and Api (17) to get Shoes' score. Alternatively, I could just run Wong at 2RF to give me maximum tinkering flexibility pending TLT2 as Luki won't be locked into a 2RF spot. Thoughts about which matters more please!

Snatchpato wrote:
Just swapped them for this very reason. I don't see Cotter making the money everyone thinks he will, but my plan this year is to avoid antipodding at all costs (to start the year).

Can someone define and provide a rationale for the anti-pod-ing thing.

i don't think I get it

Snatchpato wrote:Okay so I'm pretty sure the only zig while everyone else is zagging thing I'm going to do to start the year is go with Api from round 1. This means I've got an awesome way to loop for the first round.

I'm curious as what people think about

a) me starting with Api (currently Cheese at HOK for R1) but more so

b) how I should be looping this round. I'm thinking of playing Wong at 18 with Api at 17. If Wong scores well, leave it. If Wong shits the bed, swap Shoes (19) and Api (17) to get Shoes' score. Alternatively, I could just run Wong at 2RF to give me maximum tinkering flexibility pending TLT2 as Luki won't be locked into a 2RF spot. Thoughts about which matters more please!

(a) there's no need to go rogue round 1...i wouldn't want 608k not earning any profit in my emg's it weakens your cash flow & other positions especially your forwards. i have no problem having a 400k or less tiger or kris for the loop & you can use the 200k residual to strengthen other areas of your team.
Myself personally don't like taking a round 1 bye player just because i want all 21 players making money.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Can someone define and provide a rationale for the anti-pod-ing thing.

i don't think I get it

It's a fine line and a lot of the time, I think PODing is overated.
When player ownership percentages are so high, I would much rather be part of the pack. If it fails, at least you've failed with the pack and likely wont lose much in the way of standing/rankings.
The exception to this would be someone like Haas, where going against the pack allows WAY more cash flexibility to strengthen the rest of your roster. Theres also plenty of mid alternatives who could theoretically reach the same heights as Haas but for cheaper.

Essentially, PODing can work out in your favour but the safer option is to follow the pack and fail/succeed together.
The Amateurs did a really good break down of this, allocating it as a percentage breakdown and it very clearly shows the stats favour following the herd.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Can someone define and provide a rationale for the anti-pod-ing thing.

i don't think I get it

What GS said, but in terms of definition:

- Podding is when you choose a player few others have
- Antipodding is when you avoid a player most others have

I'll be antipodding Kini 100% this year, but that's because hes a blatant trap and I refuse to fall into it. Furthermore, his upside doesn't scare me as much. Like if he brains it for 4-5 weeks (40+) it's not going to break my season not owning him.

Antipodding Grant a few years ago when he was the tigers hooker however, that would have been a braindead move.

there also seems to be anti-podding of haas...when he unleashes many offloads as part of his new array of tricks there will be a scramble to buy round 2

Team so far. Don’t know if I love it or hate it. Pretty template but seems to be a bit more spent at WFB than most

Cheese
Haas, Tupouniua, Flegler
Piakura, Wong
Cleary, Fog
Burbo, Strange
Turbo, Papy, Rapa

Smithies, Luki, Lussick, Hutch
Salmon, Weekes, Hughes, Bradley

113k in the bank. Any thoughts lads?

White Lightning wrote:there also seems to be anti-podding of haas...when he unleashes many offloads as part of his new array of tricks there will be a scramble to buy round 2

Haas has already had plenty of 3-4 offloads per game, scores in the 70s. Nothing new, can't see him offloading more than that.

White Lightning wrote:there also seems to be anti-podding of haas...when he unleashes many offloads as part of his new array of tricks there will be a scramble to buy round 2

You're probably right but I think it would be a mistake to bring him in then (unless you have other flops in your team who need punting after round 1).
Most people who aren't starting with Haas, know what he's capable of and I don't think should be swayed by a big performance. We just think that the $$ can be better utilised elsewhere to start the season, rather than spending it on someone who is basically valued at his expected average.

I tried for a long time to fit Haas in with Hopgood but it compromised the rest of my team. At this point, i'll be happy taking a Hopgood, McInnes and Smithies trio rather than Haas, then look to bring Haas in post Origin or if he has a string of below par games.

GreenSchist wrote:

It's a fine line and a lot of the time, I think PODing is overated.
When player ownership percentages are so high, I would much rather be part of the pack. If it fails, at least you've failed with the pack and likely wont lose much in the way of standing/rankings.
The exception to this would be someone like Haas, where going against the pack allows WAY more cash flexibility to strengthen the rest of your roster. Theres also plenty of mid alternatives who could theoretically reach the same heights as Haas but for cheaper.

Essentially, PODing can work out in your favour but the safer option is to follow the pack and fail/succeed together.
The Amateurs did a really good break down of this, allocating it as a percentage breakdown and it very clearly shows the stats favour following the herd.

Mathematically you are best to be PODing. All things being equal, you are essentially playing a lottery. When your numbers come up, you want to have numbers that other people don't, so you aren't sharing the winnings with everyone else.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Team so far. Don’t know if I love it or hate it. Pretty template but seems to be a bit more spent at WFB than most

Cheese
Haas, Tupouniua, Flegler
Piakura, Wong
Cleary, Fog
Burbo, Strange
Turbo, Papy, Rapa

Smithies, Luki, Lussick, Hutch
Salmon, Weekes, Hughes, Bradley

113k in the bank. Any thoughts lads?

Nothing wrong with a template team. I think you're team is nicely balanced, except for the centers where you will obviously be hoping Strange gets named (I'm of the belief that Weekes has the role locked up and Strange doesn't get named).
Word is apparently that Bradley won't be named, but thats an easy fill with another cheapy.
I've recently just locked in the same back 3, so love that. Still a chance Rapa could be downgrade to another WFB to allow strengthening in another position - or even play a Simonsson their instead to give you that CTR cover/

Over the course of the season you'll make a heap of unique decisions from trades, captaincy, who you start/bench... No one is starting with the same team and making all the same decisions. You just need to pick the players that score the most points. PODs just for the sake of being different at the start of the season is a trap in itself

mattnz wrote:

Mathematically you are best to be PODing. All things being equal, you are essentially playing a lottery. When your numbers come up, you want to have numbers that other people don't, so you aren't sharing the winnings with everyone else.

Not sure if I agree.

I think PODing has the higher upside as you say but it is a definite gamble with higher risk.
The safer option is to follow the crowd. Fantasy is all about rankings. If Cotter flops, you're not going to be way down the rankings, you'll be right around average. Granted you wont be at the top with the guys that didn't pick Cotter but its not gonna leave you with some insurmountable hill to climb.

my tv broke wrote:

This is the correct answer

Talk of PODs is silly at the start of the season. Its somewhat relevant towards the pointy end as a gamble to make ground.

100% agree.

Just look at Booze over the final few rounds last year, it's something I thought he did really well. That's when you need to take a serious look at POD options, cause you're literally fighting it out with the other top ranked teams and it comes down to small margins. No point having the exact same 17 as the guy in first as you head into the final round.




I know this might seem obvious...

mattnz wrote:

Mathematically you are best to be PODing. All things being equal, you are essentially playing a lottery. When your numbers come up, you want to have numbers that other people don't, so you aren't sharing the winnings with everyone else.

But there aren't equal odds of all coaches doing well. I think most here would back themselves to be able to turn a good start into a top 100 finish. Start with the pack and blow them away with superior trading, game strategy and bye planning

Was locked on Grant, but the early bye has me considering Cook instead…. For the first time all pre season. My brain hurts.

White Lightning wrote:

(a) there's no need to go rogue round 1...i wouldn't want 608k not earning any profit in my emg's it weakens your cash flow & other positions especially your forwards. i have no problem having a 400k or less tiger or kris for the loop & you can use the 200k residual to strengthen other areas of your team.
Myself personally don't like taking a round 1 bye player just because i want all 21 players making money.

I don't mind the Koro pick, I'm kind of keen. The first round bye is obviously pretty annoying but it's not really much different to picking Grant with a bye in RD4 which is popular