NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 7 - Vegas, Baby

I see a lot of posts about upside of certains players but barely any considering downside for your own team. It's important to consider what could go wrong and how you may or may not address it.

Taking my own team using Mahoney as an example. It's possible he could come out and miss 12 tackles round 1 scoring in the 30s. Would that cause me to blow my team up and get rid of him? Absolutely not. For some coaches that would be a deal breaker. So if you can't live with an outcome that is in the plausible range of possibilities they shouldn't be in your team

BCT05 wrote:

I don't mind the Koro pick, I'm kind of keen. The first round bye is obviously pretty annoying but it's not really much different to picking Grant with a bye in RD4 which is popular

If Tigers were playing round 1 Koro would probably make my team. But too much risk Tigers end up with a bench utiity and he scores around priced average. If I'm wrong he is an okay price point to buy in round 3 or 4

I have Haas C atm split between FOMO of not owning and thinking he's priced at his average and could spend the money better

GreenSchist wrote:

Nothing wrong with a template team. I think you're team is nicely balanced, except for the centers where you will obviously be hoping Strange gets named (I'm of the belief that Weekes has the role locked up and Strange doesn't get named).
Word is apparently that Bradley won't be named, but thats an easy fill with another cheapy.
I've recently just locked in the same back 3, so love that. Still a chance Rapa could be downgrade to another WFB to allow strengthening in another position - or even play a Simonsson their instead to give you that CTR cover/

Cheers for the thoughts mate. Could use that 100k in the bank to shop for another CTR with some more job security I suppose plenty of time before kick off haha

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

If Tigers were playing round 1 Koro would probably make my team. But too much risk Tigers end up with a bench utiity and he scores around priced average. If I'm wrong he is an okay price point to buy in round 3 or 4

Ah yes this is true

Jele wrote:

Happy to oblige. Overall looks pretty solid, maybe one gun short of some other teams with a few extra mid-rangers?

- picking Sezer on the bye is a bold call. Not sure why he is going to go beyond his BE (35) which is actually more than his historical average. Hutch, Flanno,and Sezer kind of feel like the same category of player - you could drop one of them at least for someone like Luki, Smithies or Lussick (if no hooker on the bench)
- same to some extent with Olam, although I think he's a better chance of picking up some cash. I like the Suli pick.
- I looked at Arthars, his DPP is handy, but his scores are consistently average. There might be better (or at least cheaper) WFB backup out there.

Thanks, Jele! For some reason I had Sezer's historical average higher than it actually is. Relooking at his trial stats, theyre not great etiher.
He's gone and hello Shaun Lane. Last year seems like the outlier for him, I'd expect at least 5 points value, hopefully the magical ten.

Aside from playing the Panthers in round 2, Eels have one of the softest openings (in my opinion) though I won't place too much emphasis on the draw.

Bostock is my other option for Arthurs. Tesi Niu a little expensive for my liking. Might swtich to Bostock and hope another WFB pops up!

Jumping Marlin wrote:

The fantasy relevant comments were:

2023 pre season he was in a facility, and he came back under done.

2024 he is in the best physical shape of his career.  


Good news on the health front is he’s in non medicated remission.

Remember when that assistant coach was like “he’s back training he’ll be right R1”. Think it was end Jan. I knew he got arrested and sectioned Xmas Eve and was thinking “can’t be true”

Wish Angus all the best

Hope the media is this respectful next time someone else has a run-in with police or a mental health episode

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I see a lot of posts about upside of certains players but barely any considering downside for your own team. It's important to consider what could go wrong and how you may or may not address it.

Taking my own team using Mahoney as an example. It's possible he could come out and miss 12 tackles round 1 scoring in the 30s. Would that cause me to blow my team up and get rid of him? Absolutely not. For some coaches that would be a deal breaker. So if you can't live with an outcome that is in the plausible range of possibilities they shouldn't be in your team

The sitili/wong rage trading after round one will be interesting

Loomer wrote:I have Haas C atm split between FOMO of not owning and thinking he's priced at his average and could spend the money better

Just checked and his ownership is 57.5%. Not sure if that means more coaches are getting that feeling or if there have been many, many more autofill teams created in the past couple of days. Personally, I’m with the FOMO crowd.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

But there aren't equal odds of all coaches doing well. I think most here would back themselves to be able to turn a good start into a top 100 finish. Start with the pack and blow them away with superior trading, game strategy and bye planning

If you happened to start with the right PODs in your initial team, other teams wouldn't be able to easily catch you, as they can only trade in at most 2 each week.

Lets say for example that there are 5 stand out players in week 1, and they happen to all be under 5% ownership and they are all in 1 person's team. They get a massive advantage for a few weeks, while others are spending time bringing them into their team and you can really separate from the pack.

If the top 5 performers are all high ownership, most players will have some of them and will be able to easily bring in the couple that they don't own.

A good example of Antipoding, is that likely 40%+ will have Cleary and captain him in R1. If he goes down with a 6 week injury ahead of next week, all those players have a massive handicap to start the season. Those that don't have him will have a great advantage.

Snatchpato wrote:Okay so I'm pretty sure the only zig while everyone else is zagging thing I'm going to do to start the year is go with Api from round 1. This means I've got an awesome way to loop for the first round.

I'm curious as what people think about

a) me starting with Api (currently Cheese at HOK for R1) but more so

b) how I should be looping this round. I'm thinking of playing Wong at 18 with Api at 17. If Wong scores well, leave it. If Wong shits the bed, swap Shoes (19) and Api (17) to get Shoes' score. Alternatively, I could just run Wong at 2RF to give me maximum tinkering flexibility pending TLT2 as Luki won't be locked into a 2RF spot. Thoughts about which matters more please!

I thought about doing something like this, had Api/Cheese combo for about 2 days

I think Api at 17 but start Wong (pending final team lists) and work out with players to loop next week

my tv broke wrote:

The sitili/wong rage trading after round one will be interesting

You aren't taking either? Also recall a post that you thought Piakura would underperform expectations. You are going to have an interesting team.

my tv broke wrote:

The sitili/wong rage trading after round one will be interesting

If they don't both score 70 I'll be downgrading my entire squad to prepare cash for rage trading

Antipodding is not picking Willison who is 42% owned

Jacob Gagai at 34% and Walsh at 30% are some other wild selections excluding the obvious autofill errors

mattnz wrote:

You aren't taking either? Also recall a post that you thought Piakura would underperform expectations. You are going to have an interesting team.

i have all three, although i'm flakey on sitili.

a robbo teamlist shake up 1hr before kickoff would be par for the course, too.

my tv broke wrote:

i have all three, although i'm flakey on sitili.

a robbo teamlist shake up 1hr before kickoff would be par for the course, too.

Yep, I will have my finger on the panic trade button.

If Crichton replaces either one he will be joining my team. If it's Butcher I'll just pivot to a TLT2 option

Loomer wrote:I have Haas C atm split between FOMO of not owning and thinking he's priced at his average and could spend the money better

I’m still not sure on it as well.

Feels like there’s going to be a lot of value at MID so why just get a guy who will score at his price and outside R1 due to a split round I won’t captain?

Gravitating back toward Cleary(c) + Murray (vc) + GUN TBA (Grant, Ponga) rather than the Haas (c) + Murray (vc) + Cleary idea

Camo123 wrote:Antipodding is not picking Willison who is 42% owned

Jacob Gagai at 34% and Walsh at 30% are some other wild selections excluding the obvious autofill errors

there are A LOT of casuals/h2h's/etc that play this game that just don't care as much like we nerds do. they simply won't give a shit that willison didnt end up playing when they remember to check their team tomorrow.

What was with Haas in first trial? 18pts and what looks like negative points galore. I know trials aren't be all and end all