NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 12 - No need for a restart

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Percentage of team kick metres from dominant half

DCE - 68.5%
Ilias - 62.9%
SWalker - 56.8%
Arey - 59.3%
Hastings - 39.6%
Fogarty - 95.0%
SJ - 86.5%
Hynes - 69.4%
Hughes - 65.0%
Cleary - 76.1%
Moses - 59.8%
Burton - 70.3%
Boyd - 79.5%
Hunt - 73.6%
SOS - 80.5%
Townsend - 69.4%

Name	K	KM
Raiders	26	846
Rabbitohs	21	755
Roosters	25	715
Storm	22	685
Eels	25	681
Sharks	17	666
Cowboys	24	664
Dolphins	21	579
Bulldogs	16	565
Sea Eagles	21	547
Broncos	23	543
Warriors	27	507
Titans	23	493
Dragons	19	493
Panthers	22	481
Knights	17	465

My analysis says the Raiders had the most kick metres and Fogarty was by far the most dominant half. Will these things be repeated next week?

Probably not but Fogarty got 5 tackles under his average for 2023 and 8 under for 2022 average so that might offset the higher KM

He’s undeniably going to be a dominant half and have value

Honestly Hynes sticks out on those stats. Hopefully drops enough ripe for a R6 pickup

kamikamicameleons wrote:

Awesome, cheers. Gonna take a few re reads to take any of that in I think.

Was wondering how hard it would be to predict price changes with guessing scores for 5 rounds out. After reading that it feels like it wouldn't be accurate enough to bother

The prediction of prices will be pretty accurate if your predictions are accurate. The magic number changes each week and is based on the weeks total scoring across all players, so it can never be known in advance but it can be estimated pretty well. That's the prediction MTB's site uses. If you want to do more weeks, or varying scoring (which is handy if you expect a player to start for say two weeks and score 50 and then return to the bench and score 28) you can apply the formula if you like Maths for fun, but it's easier to just download Milchy's price predictor:


https://www.mediafire.com/file/igbiexbhicaa473/Price+predictor.xlsx/file

kamikamicameleons wrote:

Awesome, cheers. Gonna take a few re reads to take any of that in I think.

Was wondering how hard it would be to predict price changes with guessing scores for 5 rounds out. After reading that it feels like it wouldn't be accurate enough to bother

Or you could use the 3 game price predictor on footystats. Go to the breakevens page and scroll to the bottom of player/s in question.

Edit: trumped by Mulvy again. Perennial bridesmaid.

Fyi you can enter your own BE in yhe price predictor to see how price change would differ relative to BE.

It should be pretty good for an idea.

Last week i was looking at how much sitili and may would change and the dif was only 2k in the end to what it predicted

Finch wrote:Is the site loading super slow for anyone else..?

yes

Finch wrote:Is the site loading super slow for anyone else..?

I've already sent a messenger pigeon to @Si

Aardvark wrote:

Finch wrote:Is the site loading super slow for anyone else..?

I've already sent a messenger pigeon to @Si

I've already fixed the Forum script mate, but when the pigeon gets here I'll send it back your way with an A4 of this week's Break Evens for you.

I’m standard-issue wrote:

I've already fixed the Forum script mate, but when the pigeon gets here I'll send it back your way with an A4 of this week's Break Evens for you.

 Thanks mate, I’ll head down to Officeworks, photocopy it and organise it to be couriered out to each forum member.

Any chance mine can be faxed?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Any chance mine can be faxed?

Slow down there Elon!

standard-issue wrote:

I've already fixed the Forum script mate, but when the pigeon gets here I'll send it back your way with an A4 of this week's Break Evens for you.

Thanks, working fine now so whatever you did fixed it

Tigs wrote:The Mole is saying Sezer is out this week and Galvin will debut. The following is from a WT discord re Sezer: "Lathami on the forums who occasionally goes down to training said that Sezer was playing in the opposed team, so I wonder whether he's been dropped or whether he's on light duties due to injury"

Jayden Sullivan becomes the primary half, I imagine?

Going to be interesting if we get Sullivan, Galvin and Seyfarth tomorrow.

Feels like I should have a plethora of trade-out options but not sure I really have any (if there are no surprises tomorrow).

Lolo obviously putting his hand up but if he went and played 55mins for 50pts this week that would be pretty infuriating. If he had only got 40mins in a close game it would be a much more straightforward sell. Think you have to give him another week. With next to no bank the trade in options for him are basically limited to Saifiti or RFM anyway (unless I wanted to go non-mid and rely on Salmon as only mid cover - no thanks).

Would love to grab a Fog or Koro but no logical way to get to them (which isn't a surprise.. it's rd2)

Mulvy wrote:

If you want to do more weeks, or varying scoring (which is handy if you expect a player to start for say two weeks and score 50 and then return to the bench and score 28) you can apply the formula if you like Maths for fun, but it's easier to just download Milchy's price predictor:


https://www.mediafire.com/file/igbiexbhicaa473/Price+predictor.xlsx/file

Yeah this combination is what I'm after. Still finding it difficult to know how long I'd need to hold players to make decent money on them, particularly if their scores vary week to week. Hadn't seen Milchy's price predictor, will give that a crack first before dusting off the maths I last used 20 years ago

kamikamicameleons wrote:

Yeah this combination is what I'm after. Still finding it difficult to know how long I'd need to hold players to make decent money on them, particularly if their scores vary week to week. Hadn't seen Milchy's price predictor, will give that a crack first before dusting off the maths I last used 20 years ago

You have to enter a magic number, Milchcow said earlier today that he is using 14000. Because it's rd 1 you don't have previous 4 scores so you just put their original BE's in instead. It helps to ensure Excel is set to auto update.

Finch wrote:

Awesome! I got Galvin last week, so happy about that.

Did anyone else grab him week 1?

yeah i started with galvin

Was Belamy not happy with Jacky? I thought he looked OK.

@MTB - Sorry to be that guy, but I noticed the formatting on the mobile version of the site was a bit weird on the weekend. I use it for the match centers etc as I refuse to use the APP, so I notice these things. A couple of things I recall were in the match centre screen you couldn't see the team scores and when you zoom out it goes a bit odd. Could be wrong but I also thought you could scroll across the matches (rather than pushing the arrows)..

Using safari

ynot wrote:

Jayden Sullivan becomes the primary half, I imagine?

Going to be interesting if we get Sullivan, Galvin and Seyfarth tomorrow.

Yeah, I like this, Sullivan could be a great buy as primary half. Would happily grab him over Fog at his price point.

If Galvin starts , you almost have to grab him, even if he ends up just a 1 week cover for Sezer

my tv broke wrote:Fyi you can enter your own BE in yhe price predictor to see how price change would differ relative to BE.

Player: L-Jimmy
Current price: 5-pack of nuggets, cold
Break even: 17 forum posts, at least two funny
Projected price: 4 nuggets