NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 12 - No need for a restart

ynot wrote:

Jai Arrow suffered a rotator cuff injury in #NRLVegas - will review with surgeon for treatment options (via @telegraph_sport).

If he can avoid surgery - usually 4-6 weeks rehab.

If cuff tear significant enough & surgery required - 4+ months recovery (potentially season over). pic.twitter.com/kYdvr4MWRg

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) March 11, 2024

Is that Jacob Host's music? or Tallis Duncan?

On the subject of players that aren't first grade standard let's bring back Trent Peoples

my tv broke wrote:

tbf we knew arthur was full of shit before this pre-season.

it was always going to be one of the other with lussick or hopgood. i leant hopgood for big mins but its looking like it will be lussick to end up in the 80 role.

was never going to be both.

I've actually got no Eels....It's these special glasses I wear, make me impervious to subconscious influence. All my shit decisions are entirely down to me.

Bethany_B wrote:

Tbf Turbo isn't that expensive by gun WFB standards, not like I'm paying $780k for Trell or anything like that. That said, obviously there is risk with him, but we've seen what he's capable of doing.

...a hammy?

L-Jimmy wrote:

...a hammy?

Yes that is the main risk with Turbo. That said, he hasn't actually done a hammy for the last 3 seasons if I remember right. He did one in the 2021 pre-season, then played out that season injury-free. Then in 2022, he was fine until dislocating a shoulder against Parra (ending his season) and then tore his pec in Origin 2 last year.

Some players I'm looking at pending TLT, assume most others will be looking at similar

Fogarty - probably should've started with him but still don't think he has that 8-10 points of value from his starting price. 800km is massive outlier. Now priced at 47 and likely to settle around 51-53. Reminds me lot of ARey from last year. Go check his stats and drop off when everyone was considering him over SJ last year. Fog not a bad buy as he'll be solid but don't think he's a must

Taylan - passes the eye test with flying colours and has DPP. Now at $627k and will share bye with Cleary. Teddy, Walsh, Holmes, Garrick... the list goes on for CTR or WFB in a similar price range to him. Others also looking to drop cash like Farnworth or Tago who are historical guns. Maybe Taylan comes out with a 30 this week and the hype dies off. More of a 'fun' buy I think but there'll be games where Tago/To'o get the ball instead on the right

Liddle - if Muhleisen drops off then I think he's a must. Lawrie, Sele and Leilua to return to the Dragons pack. Means Eisenhuth and RFM to drop back, and their bench played very minimal minutes this week. One to watch

Aitken - if he gets Null's edge spot

Terrell - may benefit from Leniu suspension but Roosters minutes are a scramble as we all know from last week's injuries. Could be one of those that simply demands minutes from how good he is and you just need to trust the talent that he'll get the points

Lussick - if Hands drops off the bench due to Grieg returning, meaning a 4 forward bench

Aardvark wrote:

Not sure if this has occured to you @MS but, given you are a learned rugby League sage held in high esteem by the forum, maybe you could outline how most premium WFB prices will fluctuate by a couple of hundred grand over the course of a season?

I'm not sure where we would find the data to support this hypothesis

Shady2K wrote:Some players I'm looking at pending TLT, assume most others will be looking at similar


Terrell - may...

I see what you did there

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

Didn't get to watch the game as I was at SG and Flegg games. Was it a bad one? Did he play the game out?

Groin injuries tend to recover quicker than other muscle groups and are easier to play through. More likely to effect his goal kicking than his in play kicking (rounded vs straighter kicking technique) but shouldn't be a long term issue. Fine in real world but annoying for fantasy as no GKing or a reduction in KM hurts him big time and you bleed cash.

If you liked the pick it should be 1 week max of reduced scores before he goes back to normal and if he's a season keeper than his price dropping and then going back up won't matter.

This is good! Thanks PYTM really appreciate your input.
Moses did finish the game, just didn't kick much. 1 week of a reduced score isn't too bad

Loomer wrote:If I'm selling anyone it will probably be Ponga as not seeing any go forward from Knights so will just lose more cash and bigger BE next week. Feels like starting with Teddy last season when was warned against and I held Teddy all season

I don’t own Ponga but he was a Danny Levi dive away from an extra 10-15 points

Talk of trading guns always makes me nervous. Every time I do it,L it bites me somewhere personal and sensitive.

Shady2K wrote:Some players I'm looking at pending TLT, assume most others will be looking at similar

Fogarty - probably should've started with him but still don't think he has that 8-10 points of value from his starting price. 800km is massive outlier. Now priced at 47 and likely to settle around 51-53. Reminds me lot of ARey from last year. Go check his stats and drop off when everyone was considering him over SJ last year. Fog not a bad buy as he'll be solid but don't think he's a must

Taylan - passes the eye test with flying colours and has DPP. Now at $627k and will share bye with Cleary. Teddy, Walsh, Holmes, Garrick... the list goes on for CTR or WFB in a similar price range to him. Others also looking to drop cash like Farnworth or Tago who are historical guns. Maybe Taylan comes out with a 30 this week and the hype dies off. More of a 'fun' buy I think but there'll be games where Tago/To'o get the ball instead on the right

Liddle - if Muhleisen drops off then I think he's a must. Lawrie, Sele and Leilua to return to the Dragons pack. Means Eisenhuth and RFM to drop back, and their bench played very minimal minutes this week. One to watch

Aitken - if he gets Null's edge spot

Terrell - may benefit from Leniu suspension but Roosters minutes are a scramble as we all know from last week's injuries. Could be one of those that simply demands minutes from how good he is and you just need to trust the talent that he'll get the points

Lussick - if Hands drops off the bench due to Grieg returning, meaning a 4 forward bench

Taylan wasn't getting lots of ball on the left, he just made things happen the few times that he did get it, out of nothing.

L-Jimmy wrote:Talk of trading guns always makes me nervous. Every time I do it,L it bites me somewhere personal and sensitive.

Exactly why I'm taking a wait and see approach with McInnes.

Don't be hasty

Been looking at J.Saifiti as a potential Terrell alternative (due to question marks on role).

He got 50+ last round and is slightly cheaper.

Haven’t seen much hype though.

What are others thoughts?

Current trades now have changed to

Tolo - may
Kini - seyfarth if named

Thinking I'll have to get rid of Murray soon to upgrade my cows who just aren't making cash to some mid rangers who are generating faster. Not sure yet if that's the best cause of action to generate money this year

mattnz wrote:
Taylan wasn't getting lots of ball on the left, he just made things happen the few times that he did get it, out of nothing.

Indeed, Tago actually touched the ball more than May last weekend.

I do think May had a very dominant game against Nick Meaney of the sort that isn't going to happen every week. Like Talakai against Morgan harper or the freak game last year where Starford To'a made Valentine Holmes look like an u8s player

If he stays fit, May is going to be a very good scorer this year, but the guessowrk now is to work out just how good, and whether it justifies the price.

Off Rabbitohs Warren forum

Just back from training and saw the Arrow news explains why he wasn’t out there till the end today. No Keppie either today. Looks like Gagai has been dropped for Milne. Murray on the edge with either Havilli or Duncan lock. Host dropped. Shaq and Davvy both in the playing 17 shirts. Some nice touches by Cody and Trell. Trell was getting involved on both left and right and linking up at times in the middle wish he would do it during games. Once Trell threw a great ball to the wing only problem Milne wasn’t up with the play.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I watch every minute of every game every week and have done for a long time.

Hynes, SJ, DCE(historically), Cleary all do "pretty much all of the kicking" for their team and don't touch 90%

To reiterate, I think Fogarty is a good pick IF you already own him. He won't be a top 5 scoring half (Cleary, Hynes, DCE, SJ, Moses) and he isn't going to make a heap of cash from here on. You are buying a guy priced at 50 who might get to 55 average but probably lands somewhere 50-55

He is priced at about 47 not 50.

BBowler wrote:Been looking at J.Saifiti as a potential Terrell alternative (due to question marks on role).

He got 50+ last round and is slightly cheaper.

Haven’t seen much hype though.

What are others thoughts?

Probably the best option around that price point I'd still like to see how he goes this week before commiting tho

BBowler wrote:Been looking at J.Saifiti as a potential Terrell alternative (due to question marks on role).

He got 50+ last round and is slightly cheaper.

Haven’t seen much hype though.

What are others thoughts?

I had a quick look at him as a short term cash maker

His scores as a starting prop are pretty crap for his price outside of Vlandys ball so I don't think there is a lot to be made

Removing <30 minute games

2023 - 8 starts for 37 average in 44.8 minutes
2022 - 11 starts for 37.8 average in 46.5 minutes
2021 - 10 starts for 46.2 average in 53.3 minutes

I think his PPM was a little higher due to game flow (lot of Raiders ball, not a heap of errors in his time on field) and he is likely to stay around his historical average

Of course if you think 2021 is relevant or you think he is a little fitter with a better work rate there might be something there

Rabbits21 wrote:Off Rabbitohs Warren forum

Just back from training and saw the Arrow news explains why he wasn’t out there till the end today. No Keppie either today. Looks like Gagai has been dropped for Milne. Murray on the edge with either Havilli or Duncan lock. Host dropped. Shaq and Davvy both in the playing 17 shirts.

Not a shocking surprise but sucks balls as owner