Jele 2024

Many thanks Ranta, appreciate the advice.

Just thinking through it, I worry that option 2 means I have 17 green dots exactly this round without any cover and I have to play all my spuds (Hughes, Salmon, Levi, Flanno, Strange, Burbo, Talagi). And then next week I'll still be in a tight place with 17 green dots (unless Chan suits up) and not much wriggle room to trade up to Brailey/Blore/Crichton (unless again I consider selling Cleary).

With option 1, I can do Cleary+Kini this week, and Sitili+Lussick next week and pick up KPP, Gutho, Brailey and Crichton/Blore. No real pathway to get Cleary unless one of my guns go down, but its probably a risk I'm willing to take if it means a significantly stronger 14-17.

Round 5

Scored 620, down almost 20,000 places to 27,712 overall. Coupled with a loss in my H2H league, and losing my draft matchup despite having the second best score of the weekend, probably my worst fantasy result ever. Let’s just call this weekend “character building”.

Round 5 team was:

Cook (c)
May (vc) Murray Sitili
Salmon KPP
Fogarty Hutchison
Strange Kiraz
Tedesco Papy Rapana

Lussick Levi Hughes Gutho
Flanagan Galvin Chan Burbo

bank: $95k

Two trades this week were Cleary + Kini -> KPP + Gutherson

The Good
- A couple of silver linings: captaining my highest scorer (of 55!), correctly choosing Salmon (34) and Strange (46) to loop over Burbo, holding onto Lussick, and of course Big Shughes

The Bad
- I’m skipping bad and going straight to ugly

The Ugly
- My WFBs combining for 52 points: last week I thought 89 points was bad.
- Teddy: choosing Teddy over Ponga or Turbo two rounds ago could be the sliding doors moment of my season.
- One score over 50 across my entire squad.
- Roosters’ rotations: 23 from May in 20 minutes, and 13 from Sitili after shifting the centre

Conclusion
Some part of fantasy is luck, and I feel like I’ve had my share of bad luck, with injuries to four guns (Haas, Moses, Cleary, Teddy) in successive weeks. Hopefully swings and roundabouts. I really want to nerf Sitili and Flanno this week if I can. While their green dots are in theory handy, I can’t trust them in my 17. While Gutho was underwhelming, he does mean I can stash Teddy if he’s only out for one week. Early trade-in possibilities include Angus, Blore, maybe Lucas (depending on Frizzell’s injury prognosis), and one of the cash cows that are likely to pop up (Jye Gray?). That "could" set me up for a tilt at Hynes or Cleary the following week...

Round 6

Scored 853, which seems more or less par for the season. Up a few thousand ranks to 24,105 overall. Busy week so I didn’t have much time for fantasy and didn’t see any of the games.

Round 6 team was:

Lussick
May (vc) Murray Hughes
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Fogarty
Strange Burbo
Kiraz Papy Gutho

Salmon Levi Flanagan Hutchison
Sitili Galvin Chan Teddy

bank: $31k

Two trades this week were Cook + Rapana -> Hynes + Angus

The Good
- Angus came in and did a job. Hope it continues
- Fog, May, KPP – most of my trade-ins have been strong
- Strange, Salmon, Flanno, SHughes – cheapies still finding a way to make money

The Bad
- Burbo, Hutch, Levi, Chan – on the other hand, some cheapies are stalling and/or injured, forcing my hand

The Ugly
- Shitili – I had a choice between Rapana to Angus or Sitili to Iro. The first netted me more points, but probably lost me cash. And I wouldn’t have to look at Sitili in my team anymore.
- Fallen guns – are good when you can pick them up, not when they are already in your team. Its been a tough season when Moses, Haas, Cleary, Teddy, Cook and now Murray have been the biggest problems, rather than the lock it in 60 average I bought them all for.

Conclusion
Starting to right the ship, but it’s a been a slow process. Cook getting dropped was a real kick in the guts this week (for him and me). Hoping Teddy is back, along with Galvin, which will give the squad a stronger feel. Will need to punt Sitili asap (although I guess he will be out this week), with Iro (depending on JS) probably highest on the list prior to TLT.

Burbo, Levi, Hutcho, Sitili all sells. Sell 3 of the 4.

Chester Waddell are good options and maybe Iro but with risky job security

Rabbits21 wrote:Burbo, Levi, Hutcho, Sitili all sells. Sell 3 of the 4.

Chester Waddell are good options and maybe Iro but with risky job security

Thanks Rabs, looking at Burbo, Sitili and maybe Hutch out. Re trade-ins, I'm currently ranking them as Iro, Waddell, Foran and then Chester.

Time to move on some shittos and replace them with some other shittos

Sitili -> Waddell and Burbo -> Iro pretty much locked in. I need at least one non-Bulldog middle for next week, and I think I'd rather get the cheaper CTR.

Considering a third trade Hutch -> Foran. With four Dogs in the squad, moving at least one of them along this week makes sense.

Leaves me with only one red dot (Murray on the bye), but my mids are looking pretty putrid. Might have a look this week for a bye-friendly, non-Origin upgrade.

Lussick
May (vc) Waddell Hughes
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Fogarty
Strange Kiraz
Teddy Papy Gutho

Salmon Galvin Foran Murray
Flanagan Levi Chan Iro

Those trades will at least get the cash moving. I know what you mean about shitto to shitto though lol I just can't do the Foran trade. Shit team and shit fantasy pedigree that one week can't overcome in my brain. No doubt he'll kick the piss out of the ball again though and you'll be onto a winner.. just not for me

Round 7

Scored 758, which seems more or less par. Up a couple of thousand spots to 22,278 overall, which is a hell of a lot better than it was looking at one stage.

Round 7 team was:

Lussick
May (vc) Waddell Hughes
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Fogarty
Strange Kiraz
Teddy Papy Gutho

Salmon Iro Galvin Hutchison
Murray Flanagan Chan Levi

bank: $4k

Two trades this week were Sitili + Burbo -> Waddell + Iro

The Good
- Captain Nicho
- Sunday – lots of Bulldogs, Knights and Sharks on show, and for once the late games didn’t let me down
- Strange, Salmon, SHughes, Galvin – cheapies becoming regular (and somewhat reliable) parts of my 17 each week (can't say the same for Hutch, Flanno, Levi or Lussick).

The Bad
- Teddy – After averaging 63 the first three rounds when not in my team, he’s managed to 24 (plus a missing match) since I traded him. Can’t help but feel he’ll be in my team all year, for better or for worse.

The Ugly
- More injuries forcing my hand. Fog is a definite out and let’s see with Gutho. So far, I’ve traded out Haas, Piakura, Moses, Cleary, Burbo and Rapana for injury, and Cotric, Wong, Kini, and Cook because they got dropped. Sitili probably fits both categories but mainly because he turned out to be crap.

Conclusion
Looks like I’ll need to make another 2/3 trades this week. Four Bulldogs on the bye, plus Fog and possibly Gutho out this week. Early thoughts are a combo of Fog, Lussick, Gutho, Hutchison or Flanagan for Cleary or Hass, plus a couple of makeweights (maybe Brailey and Gray?). Might as well keep pushing, nothing to lose at this point. I might even start doing a bit of early bye planning to try and make up some ground.

Time to move on Fogarty (ideally for Cleary) but need some cash to do so. Plus with four Bulldogs, my bench is looking pretty light.

If Fog -> Cleary is locked in as one trade, for the other two trades, thinking either:

A. Flanagan -> Piakura + Hutchison -> Laban (or one of the other cheapies), with $100k ITB, or

B. Lussick -> Brailey + Hutchison -> Laban (or one of the other cheapies), with $88k ITB.

So basically Flanno -> Piakura or Lussick -> Brailey.

Leaning towards A. Feels pretty good to ditch Hutch and Flanno, although it does mean keeping Lussick for one more week. Team would be:

Lussick
May (vc) Waddell Murray
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Fogarty
Strange Iro
Teddy Papy Gutho

Piakura Galvin Laban Levi
Chan Kiraz Hughes Salmon

I like the Flanno to Piakura trade. Holding Lussick isn't ideal obviously but can't have everything. Just gotta hope he/the Eels have a more positive game

Thanks StuDogg. The cheapie has now got me stumped. Skipped on Laban so now leaning slightly towards Armstrong, but not loving any of the options.

100% a crapshoot. My take is anyone but Weekes, so Armstrong seems as good an option as any

Round 8

Scored 938, which seems slightly over par according to YAFSS. Up 5,000 spots to 17,036 overall. Good to see most of the forum generally moving in the right direction as well.

Round 8 team was:

Lussick
May (vc) Waddell Murray
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Cleary
Strange Iro
Teddy Papy Gutho

Piakura Galvin Chan Atkinson
Levi Kiraz Hughes Salmon

bank: $91k

Three trades this week were Fogarty + Hutchison + Flanagan -> Cleary + Piakura + Atkinson

The Good
- Captain Nicho again. As a NSW fan, hope that Madge doesn’t over-think things and just picks him alongside Cleary. Bad for my fantasy team of course.
- Sunday – same as last week, my Knights and Sharks saw me gain around 10,000 spots.
- Angus – looking like the fantasy gun of old (manage to snap him up in draft a couple of weeks ago too).

The Bad
- Lussick – frustrating performance as has been the case the last few weeks. On a bye this week, so will need to consider if I trade and hold him for looping. Still not as bad as…

The Ugly
- May and Levi – both horrible this week for different reasons. May is just getting Robbo'd, whereas Levi is goddamn awful. Lesson for next year is not to pick players I don't like. I’m tempted to hold May but Robbo’s rotations seem to moving away from him. It’s hard to see a reason to hold Levi (I suspect Ricky might feel the same way)

Conclusion
Slowly but surely righting the ship. More trades required this week, but feels like everyone is in the same boat. Lussick and Gutho on the bye, but Kiraz, Hughes and Salmon to come back (if named). Early thoughts are Levi -> Brailey and Lussick or May -> a cheapie like Armstrong. Will leave me short mid and hooker coverage, but might be able to wing it for a round or two. I can see the Plath attraction, but someone like Butcher or Matterson (after the bye) look good if they hold down starting 2rf spots.

Decisions, decisions, decisions. $41k in the bank.

Levi has to go, so with Lussick on the bye, I need a new hooker. It’s a bit of a wasteland. Of the better hookers, JMK is the only that appeals (while also playing round 13), but I think going for value with J.Brailey makes sense. That’’ll cost me $122k, so need to make another $81k to make the trade work.

Next up is Gutho. I would have been tempted to keep him over the bye but his injury news means a forced trade. I got Atkinson last week, so could play him at WFB , or pick up Armstrong or Weekes this week, and bank around $260k. With Canberra’s bye coming up, I think I’m prepared to wait and have another look at Weekes and grab Armstong for now.

The question I’m wrestling with is whether its worth a third trade – either May or Lussick out. Lussick iwon’t lose money this week and I can use him as a looper. I’m also somewhat tempted to hold May. Who knows with Robbo, but MID’s another wasteland and he’s shown already he doesn’t need many minutes to go large.  

If I trade out May, I’d want another MID. With $858k in the bank, I’d pretty much have my pick except for Yeo and Haas. Trying to find a bye-friendly, non-Origin option is trickier than it should be. Which is why I can see the appeal of Plath. Its about time for Tapine to come good, but the Raiders bye makes him another wait and see.

If I trade out Lussick, I’ll probably also want a HOK which means JMK. Or go with the next best trade-in option, which for me seems like Bateman.

Using an extra trade always looks good in the moment, but trading out a green dot can backfire too. Three trades would leave me with 19 left for now

After Levi + Gutho -> Brailey + Armstrong, the team would look like this:

Brailey
May Waddell Murray
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Cleary (vc)
Kiraz Iro
Teddy Papy Armstrong

Piakura Galvin Salmon Lussick
Atkinson Hughes Chan Strange

TLDR, is it worth a third trade of May or Lussick -> Plath, Bateman or JMK?

I would make that third trade in a heartbeat. I'd lean May to Plath, but nothing wrong at all with the other two trade in options. Lussick can tread water for a week

Round 9

Scored 834, and gave up 2,000 spots to 19,101 overall. Just can’t seem to get on a roll at the momen; have hovered between 17,000 and 27,000 for the last five rounds or so.

Round 9 team was:

Brailey
May Waddell Murray
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Galvin
Kiraz Iro
Teddy Papy Armstrong

Piakura Hughes Salmon Lussick
Cleary Strange Chan Atkinson

bank: $238k

Two trades this week were Levi + Gutho -> Brailey + Armstrong. I was all in on the third trade (Lussick -> Plath) but Murray and Papy’s injuries spooked me, so thought I’d hold it back (and take Strange’s 35 as my 18th man)

The Good
- My Roosters delivered this week – Teddy, May and Crichton. The May hold was a gut call, and (for one week at least) it paid off.
- Saving a trade (I guess) – saved trades have been few and far between this year. Down to 20 left.

The Bad
- Brailey – did not bring him as a safe hooker option for 32 points in 49 minutes.
- Waddell, Piakura and Chan - all on notice for being a bit shit.

The Ugly
- More injuries to my guns – now facing forced trade-outs for Murray and Papy.

Conclusion
Once again my trade outs present themselves, but my trade in record leaves a lot to be desired. With cash in the bank, I want a quality MID and WFB. At this stage, AFB and Drinky are top of the list, but will have a better look at Garrick and Brimson. Having almost got run down in my H2H by Eisenhuth, I’m a bit tempted by him too. Matto as well if he gets picked at second row.

Here are my trades for the year so far. The only three that weren't forced were Levi, Flanagan and Hutchison (and you can argue they were forced even as they continue to suit up):

That's rough mate. I've traded out the same except Haas, Moses and Kini and they were all clear trades too.

Tatola, Teddy and Suli (luxury at the time) were my alternate outs. I'd saved a lot more trades than this last year, so nfi how things are gonna look for the run home.

I even have a 3 trade plan for next week, but maybe I should limit it to 1 or 2

Thanks Winfield, all good mate. Posted less as a complaint and more an observation. I usually struggle to pull the trigger on players and wait a round or two too long before yeeting them. The better players around here seem to be a round ahead of most of us, rather than a round behind.

At least this year, I haven't had to prevaricate on who to trade out...

Looking at two trades – Murray and Papy out. Others are on the chopping block too, like Terrell, Waddell, Piakura and Chan, but first got to clean up the long term injuries.

Team before trades:

Brailey
May Waddell Murray
Angus KPP
Hynes (c) Cleary (vc)
Kiraz Iro
Teddy Papy Armstrong

Galvin Hughes Lussick Strange
Salmon Piakura Atkinson Chan

Before I forget, lesson learnt this year (and probably every other year) is to avoid lazy players on the edge, like Waddell, Salmon and Piakura. Lazy probably not the right word, but for fantasy purposes (and maybe for Madge’s state of origin team), you want ‘effort’ players. They don’t even have to be that talented eg Ford and Eisenhuth.

Anyway back to trades. $238k in the bank, so can pretty much get anyone.

First guy in is Drinkwater. He’s exactly the sort of player I’m normally avoid as a fairly risk averse fantasy coach, but it’s time to bite the bullet. Absolute flat track bully and he has games against the Titans, Bunnies and Tigers in his next three.

Second trade is a bit more up in the air. Murray + $105 ITB gives me $831k to play with. At a push I could do without a mid, but May/Waddell/Hughes with Salmon as the only backup looks pretty disgusting. Especially with May/Waddell/Salmon all likely to need moving on in the next couple of weeks.

So the question is do I go safety first on a guy like AFB, Hopgood or Harris, or go the value route (with potential JS issues) on someone like Matto, Fainu or Eisenhuth? Or split the difference and belatedly grab Plath?

At this stage, leaning towards Matto with his DPP, cheap price, fantasy pedigree and round 13 coverage. But (as per the risk aversion comment above) I’ve always been a sucker for a fallen gun rather than up and coming new blood.

Welcome any thoughts as always.